Content Redefining Growth: India’s Revised GDP Estimates and the New Measurement Framework India’s Trade Partnerships Powering Global Integration and Growth Redefining Growth: India’s Revised GDP Estimates and the New Measurement Framework Why in News? Release of Revised GDP Estimates On 27 February 2026, Government released revised GDP estimates, shifting base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23, incorporating major methodological reforms and expanded administrative data integration. Real GDP growth (FY 2025–26): 7.6%, compared to 7.1% in FY 2024–25, reflecting sustained macroeconomic resilience amid global slowdown and external uncertainties. Nominal GDP growth projected at 8.6% (FY 2025–26), directly influencing fiscal deficit ratios, debt-to-GDP metrics, and macroeconomic sustainability indicators. Back-Series and Continuity Back-series data under revised methodology will be released by December 2026, ensuring historical comparability, continuity in long-term trend analysis, and transparency in national accounts. Relevance GS Paper III (Economy) National income accounting; Base year revision (2011–12 → 2022–23). Real vs Nominal GDP; GVA–GDP divergence. Productivity measurement; Double deflation; Supply–Use Tables. Debt–GDP ratio, fiscal deficit recalibration under FRBM. Practice Question “Periodic GDP rebasing is not merely statistical revision but a reflection of structural transformation.” Examine in the context of India’s 2022–23 base year shift.(250 Words) Conceptual Foundations of GDP Meaning and Scope of GDP GDP measures monetary value of final goods and services produced within domestic territory during a specified accounting period, excluding intermediate goods to prevent double counting. Real GDP uses base-year prices to remove inflationary distortions, whereas Nominal GDP reflects current price changes alongside real output variations. Institutional and Methodological Framework India compiles GDP following SNA 2008 standards, under the National Statistical Office (NSO) within the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) framework. GDP = GVA + Taxes – Subsidies, explaining divergence between GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) during periods of fluctuating indirect tax collections. Rationale for Base Year Revision Structural Transformation of the Economy Base year revision reflects structural transformation including digital economy expansion, renewable energy growth, GST stabilization, and rising economic formalisation through EPFO and tax digitisation. 2022–23 selected as most recent post-pandemic normal year, avoiding distortions caused by COVID contraction (–6.6% in FY 2020–21). Need for Periodic Rebasing Without periodic rebasing, outdated price structures distort real growth estimation, underrepresent emerging sectors, and miscalculate productivity improvements. Historical base revisions approximately every decade ensure alignment with evolving economic structure and international statistical best practices. Key Growth and Sectoral Trends (FY 2025–26) Aggregate Growth Performance Real GDP growth: 7.6%, indicating strengthening domestic demand, investment recovery, and industrial expansion supported by Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. Nominal GDP growth: 8.6%, impacting fiscal projections, tax buoyancy calculations, and debt sustainability metrics. Sectoral Performance Manufacturing recorded double-digit growth in FY 2023–24 and FY 2025–26, signalling revival in industrial output and capital formation. Secondary and Tertiary sectors grew above 9%, indicating broad-based expansion beyond agriculture and reinforcing services-driven growth trajectory. Trade, repair, hotels, transport, communication recorded 10.1% growth, reflecting revival in consumption-linked service sectors. Methodological Reforms in the New Series Benchmark–Indicator Framework Benchmark–Indicator method uses annual GDP as reference and extrapolates quarterly estimates using high-frequency indicators, aligning with IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual. Double Deflation and Granular Pricing Double deflation applied in manufacturing and agriculture, separately deflating output and intermediate inputs to improve real value-added estimation accuracy. Over 260 item-level CPI indices used for granular deflation, reducing distortion from aggregate price indices and improving sector-specific real growth measurement. Supply–Use Table Integration Integration of Supply and Use Tables (SUT) eliminates statistical discrepancy through product balancing, ensuring consistency between production and expenditure approaches. Data Modernisation and Administrative Integration Use of GST and Surveys GST data enables cross-validation of corporate output, state-wise allocation of activity, and improved quarterly estimation across manufacturing and non-financial services sectors. ASUSE and PLFS provide direct level estimates for unincorporated enterprises and labour input validation, reducing reliance on outdated proxy extrapolations. Real-Time Government and Consumption Data Public Financial Management System (PFMS) improves real-time measurement of General Government expenditure, enhancing fiscal sector accuracy. e-Vahan database strengthens estimation of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in transport services using high-frequency vehicle registration data. Informal, Gig and Digital Economy Inclusion Informal Sector Strengthening Inclusion of unincorporated enterprises enhances measurement of the informal sector, historically underrepresented due to limited data availability. Hired domestic workers included under household employer activities, improving representation of service-sector labour within GDP. Digital and Multi-Activity Corporations Gig and platform economy contributions better captured using corporate filings and survey integration, reflecting structural digital transformation. Multi-activity corporations segregated using MGT-7/7A filings, improving sectoral allocation accuracy instead of principal-activity assignment. Federal and Governance Implications Strengthening GSDP Estimation NSO guidelines ensure Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimates remain consistent with national accounting standards and uniform definitions. Reduced reliance on allocation ratios enhances direct estimation of state-level output using administrative and survey-based data. Fiscal and Institutional Impact Accurate GSDP influences Finance Commission devolution, borrowing ceilings, fiscal deficit ratios, and intergovernmental fiscal transfers. Statistical modernization strengthens macroeconomic credibility, influencing sovereign ratings, foreign investment flows, and multilateral institutional confidence. Macroeconomic Implications Fiscal Metrics and Sustainability Rebasing may alter Debt-to-GDP and Fiscal Deficit-to-GDP ratios, affecting consolidation targets under the FRBM framework. Nominal GDP recalibration influences tax buoyancy ratios and medium-term fiscal projections in Union Budget planning. Growth and Productivity Assessment Improved measurement of manufacturing productivity enhances accuracy of potential growth and output gap calculations. Administrative data integration improves evidence-based policymaking and strengthens counter-cyclical macroeconomic management. Challenges and Limitations Data and Coverage Issues Informal sector estimation remains partially survey-based, limiting complete real-time measurement of micro and small enterprise activity. GST threshold exemptions exclude smaller firms, potentially understating output in retail and service segments. Broader Developmental Gaps GDP excludes inequality, unpaid care work, and environmental degradation, limiting comprehensive welfare assessment. Uneven capacity across state Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES) affects uniform GSDP compilation. Way Forward Transparency and Standards Publish detailed “Sources and Methods” documentation to enhance transparency and strengthen trust in national accounts. Transition to SNA 2025 standards by 2029–30 to maintain international comparability and methodological modernization. Sustainability and Institutional Strengthening Develop Green GDP and satellite environmental accounts to integrate sustainability into national income measurement. Strengthen state statistical capacity through digital integration, training, and standardized real-time data reporting systems. India’s Trade Partnerships Powering Global Integration and Growth Why in News? Trade Diplomacy Accelerates in 2026 In FY 2025–26, India concluded FTAs with the United Kingdom, Oman and New Zealand, finalised the landmark India–EU FTA, and launched negotiations with GCC and Israel. According to UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2025, India ranks 3rd among Global South economies in trade partnership diversity index, surpassing all Global North economies. India concluded negotiations for the “Mother of All Deals” — the India–EU FTA in January 2026, marking one of its most strategic economic agreements. Relevance GS Paper II – International Relations Trade diplomacy as economic statecraft. India–EU, UK, GCC, Israel: strategic balancing in multipolar order. Diversification reducing overdependence on single markets (China+1, Europe+1). GS Paper III – Economy FTAs and export-led growth strategy. Global Value Chain (GVC) integration. Labour-intensive exports revival. Services trade liberalisation (Mode 1–4). Investment-linked trade agreements (EFTA). Practice Question Evaluate the impact of India’s new-generation FTAs on manufacturing competitiveness, employment generation and integration into global value chains.(250 Words) India’s Rising Trade Integration Expanding Global Trade Footprint India has steadily increased its global trade share, supported by resilient services exports, diversified merchandise exports, and expanding participation in global value chains (GVCs). Trade partnership diversification enhances resilience against tariff uncertainties, geopolitical fragmentation, and supply-chain disruptions in an increasingly multipolar global economy. FTAs strengthen reliable market access, reduce non-tariff barriers, promote investment flows, and improve integration into global production networks. India–EU Free Trade Agreement (2026) Market Access and Tariff Liberalisation EU provides preferential access across 97% of tariff lines, covering 99.5% of trade value, while allowing India policy flexibility for sensitive sectors. 70.4% of tariff lines, covering 90.7% of India’s exports, receive immediate duty elimination, benefiting labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems, and marine products. Zero duty over 3–5 years applies to 20.3% tariff lines, while 6.1% tariff lines receive preferential access through tariff-rate quotas and reductions. Sectoral and Services Gains Labour-intensive exports exceeding ₹2.87 lakh crore (USD 33 billion) gain competitiveness and deeper integration into European value chains. EU extended commitments across 144 service subsectors, including IT/ITeS, education, professional and business services, supporting high-value service exports. India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) Goods and Trade Expansion 99% of India’s exports receive duty-free access, covering nearly 100% of trade value, benefiting textiles, engineering goods, chemicals, and auto components. Bilateral trade currently stands at USD 56 billion, with both countries targeting doubling trade by 2030 under CETA framework. Mobility and Social Security UK eased mobility for professionals in IT, healthcare, finance and education, facilitating smoother entry for contractual suppliers and intra-corporate transferees. Double Contribution Convention eliminates dual social security payments, generating estimated savings of over ₹4,000 crore for Indian firms and professionals. India–Oman CEPA (2025) Market Access and Sectoral Gains Oman grants zero-duty access on 98.08% tariff lines, covering 99.38% of India’s exports by value, boosting agriculture, textiles, engineering and pharmaceuticals. Agreement enhances opportunities for MSMEs, artisans, women-led enterprises, and labour-intensive industries across manufacturing and agriculture. Services and AYUSH Recognition Oman extended commitments on traditional medicine across all modes of supply, marking first such recognition globally for India’s AYUSH sector. Mode 4 commitments enable temporary entry for intra-corporate transferees, business visitors, and independent professionals. India–New Zealand FTA (2025) Comprehensive Tariff Elimination New Zealand eliminated duties on 100% of tariff lines, granting immediate zero-duty access for all Indian exports. Agreement strengthens market access for farmers and MSMEs, supporting integration into Oceania and Pacific Island markets. Investment and Workforce Cooperation Backed by USD 20 billion investment commitment over 15 years, enhancing long-term economic and strategic cooperation. Expands workforce mobility in sectors like IT, healthcare, engineering, AYUSH, education, construction and hospitality services. India–EFTA TEPA (Effective October 2025) Market Access and Investment Commitments EFTA offered access on 92.2% tariff lines, covering 99.6% of exports, including 100% coverage of non-agricultural products. Investment commitment of USD 100 billion over 15 years, expected to generate 1 million direct jobs, excluding foreign portfolio investments. Services and Capacity Building Strengthens cooperation in IT, education, business, cultural and audio-visual services, deepening India’s high-value services exports. India–UAE CEPA (2022) Trade Growth Impact Bilateral trade surpassed USD 100 billion in FY 2024–25, achieving earlier five-year target ahead of schedule. Non-oil exports reached USD 27.4 billion in FY 2023–24, growing at average 25.6% since CEPA implementation. Sectoral Highlights Smartphones exports to UAE reached USD 2.57 billion in FY 2023–24, alongside growth in chemicals, machinery, and high-technology goods. CEPA empowered MSMEs, strengthened supply chains, and enhanced India’s strategic economic footprint in the MENA region. India–Australia ECTA (2022) Tariff Liberalisation and Services Australia granted preferential access across 100% tariff lines, while India extended access on over 70% tariff lines, particularly raw materials. Australia offered commitments across 135 service subsectors, granting MFN treatment in 120 subsectors. Trade Gains India’s exports to Australia grew by 8% in FY 2024–25, with strong gains in manufacturing, chemicals, textiles, and agricultural products. Gems and jewellery exports rose 16% during April–November 2025, reflecting sustained sectoral momentum. Domestic Enablers Strengthening Export Competitiveness Digital and Financial Support Trade Connect ePlatform provides tariff explorer services enabling exporters to leverage FTA benefits effectively. Export Promotion Mission (EPM) establishes digitally driven framework for enhancing export initiatives and global outreach. Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters ensures liquidity support during uncertainty, promoting business continuity and market expansion. RBI and Regulatory Measures RBI extended export credit tenor to 450 days until 31 March 2026, enhancing working capital flexibility. Export realisation period extended from 9 months to 15 months under FEMA amendments. Union Budget 2026–27 removed ₹10 lakh courier export cap and enabled direct factory-to-ship clearance using electronic sealing. Expanding Negotiation Agenda New and Ongoing Negotiations India reached interim framework understanding with the United States for advancing a broader Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). First round of India–Israel FTA negotiations concluded in February 2026, focusing on fintech, AI, pharmaceuticals, defence, and space cooperation. Negotiations underway with GCC, ASEAN, Mexico and Canada, targeting enhanced trade, investment flows, and supply-chain resilience. Strategic and Economic Significance Growth and Employment Effects FTAs expand export markets, stimulate investment inflows, create employment across manufacturing and services sectors, and deepen integration into global value chains. Diversified trade partnerships reduce vulnerability to concentrated markets and enhance resilience against geopolitical and tariff shocks. Geopolitical and Strategic Dimensions Expanding FTA network positions India as a central actor in evolving global trade architecture anchored in trust, reciprocity, and shared prosperity. Trade diplomacy complements strategic partnerships across Indo-Pacific, Europe, MENA and Africa, reinforcing India’s economic statecraft. Way Forward Deepening Integration Accelerate implementation of concluded FTAs to maximise utilisation rates and ensure MSMEs effectively leverage preferential market access. Strengthen logistics infrastructure, customs digitalisation, and regulatory harmonisation to reduce trade costs and improve export competitiveness. Long-Term Strategic Alignment Align trade strategy with Make in India, PLI schemes, and supply-chain diversification goals. Ensure balance between market access commitments and safeguarding sensitive agricultural and dairy sectors.  

Content India–UK–Mauritius Chagos Deal & Diego Garcia: Strategic, Legal and Maritime Implications International Law is Not Dead”: Resilience Amid Geopolitical Turbulence India–UK–Mauritius Chagos Deal & Diego Garcia: Strategic, Legal and Maritime Implications Why in News? Sovereignty Transfer with Strategic Continuity Recently United Kingdom agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, while retaining operational control of Diego Garcia under a proposed 99-year lease arrangement. The agreement follows the 2019 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion, which held that the UK’s separation of Chagos in 1965 violated international law and decolonisation principles. India publicly supported the UK–Mauritius understanding, aligning with its long-standing position supporting decolonisation, territorial integrity, and Global South solidarity. Relevance GS Paper II – International Relations Decolonisation and territorial integrity (ICJ advisory opinion 2019). India’s position on sovereignty and Global South solidarity. Maritime diplomacy with: Mauritius United Kingdom Strategic implications involving United States Strategic autonomy amid US–China rivalry. Practice Question “The Chagos sovereignty transfer reflects the intersection of decolonisation principles and geopolitical pragmatism.” Discuss in the context of India’s foreign policy.(250 Words) Geostrategic Significance of Diego Garcia Military and Geographical Importance Diego Garcia, located roughly 3,500 km from India’s southern coast, hosts a strategic US–UK joint military base operational since the 1970s. The base played crucial roles in the 1991 Gulf War, 2001 Afghanistan intervention, and 2003 Iraq War, serving as a logistics and bomber deployment hub. Its central Indian Ocean location enables surveillance across sea lanes linking the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Malacca Strait. Power Projection and Logistics Diego Garcia supports long-range bombers, naval vessels, and pre-positioned military supplies, enhancing rapid deployment capabilities across West Asia and the Indo-Pacific. It strengthens maritime domain awareness in the western Indian Ocean, a region witnessing increasing naval competition. Indian Ocean Strategic Context Sea Lanes and Energy Security Nearly 80% of India’s crude oil imports transit through Indian Ocean sea lanes, making maritime security central to national energy resilience. The Indian Ocean carries almost one-third of global bulk cargo traffic and two-thirds of global oil shipments, underscoring systemic economic importance. Stability in the Indian Ocean is vital for India’s aspiration of becoming a USD 5 trillion-plus economy and global trade hub. Economic Connectivity and Trade India’s major ports and trade corridors depend on uninterrupted maritime flows linking West Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Any disruption in western Indian Ocean chokepoints would directly affect India’s trade balance and inflation dynamics. China’s Expanding Maritime Footprint Strategic Competition in the IOR China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti (2017) and developed dual-use port infrastructure at Gwadar (Pakistan). Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China financed ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and East Africa, reinforcing the “string of pearls” narrative. A strategic vacuum in Chagos could have expanded China’s influence in the western Indian Ocean, altering the regional balance of power. Maritime Encirclement Concerns Chinese naval deployments in the Indian Ocean have increased in frequency, including submarine patrols and anti-piracy missions. Strategic competition in the region increasingly intersects with India’s security perimeter and extended maritime neighbourhood. India–Mauritius Strategic Partnership Historical and Cultural Foundations Mauritius has nearly 70% population of Indian origin, forming the bedrock of strong cultural, political, and diplomatic ties. India has consistently supported Mauritius’ sovereignty claims in multilateral forums, including the UN. Defence and Security Cooperation India assisted Mauritius in establishing a Coastal Surveillance Radar System, strengthening maritime domain awareness. Cooperation extends to hydrographic surveys, capacity building, defence training, and joint exercises under long-standing bilateral agreements. Mauritius is part of the Colombo Security Conclave, enhancing regional maritime security cooperation. Legal and International Law Dimensions ICJ and UN Resolutions The ICJ advisory opinion (2019) concluded that the UK must end its administration of Chagos “as rapidly as possible”. The UN General Assembly resolution (2019) demanded UK withdrawal within six months, reinforcing global support for Mauritius’ sovereignty. Balancing Sovereignty and Security The new arrangement balances sovereignty restoration with continued military leasing, blending decolonisation justice and strategic pragmatism. It reflects how international law and geopolitical realities often converge in negotiated settlements. Regional Security Implications Stability Versus Militarisation Diego Garcia enhances surveillance, anti-piracy operations, and rapid response capabilities in the western Indian Ocean. Continued Western military presence may deter hostile expansion but risks intensifying great-power rivalry between US-led coalitions and China. Smaller island states may express concern over erosion of strategic autonomy amid expanding militarisation. West Asia Linkages Conflict Spillovers Escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and Gulf states increase the strategic value of forward military logistics hubs. Diego Garcia provides staging support for operations near Gulf chokepoints, which handle a large share of India’s energy imports. Diaspora and Economic Interests India has over 8 million diaspora in West Asia, whose safety depends on regional stability. Maritime disruptions in the Gulf could trigger evacuation challenges and economic shocks for India. India’s Maritime Doctrine SAGAR and Indo-Pacific Vision India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine emphasises cooperative maritime security and inclusive regional development. The development aligns with India’s push for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific, consistent with UNCLOS principles. India must balance anti-colonial solidarity with Mauritius and pragmatic security cooperation with Western partners. Strategic Autonomy India’s foreign policy traditionally emphasises strategic autonomy, avoiding rigid bloc alignments. Supporting the agreement allows India to maintain influence in Mauritius while avoiding confrontation with key Western partners. Challenges and Strategic Risks Perception and Alignment The long-term lease arrangement may attract criticism that sovereignty restoration is symbolic rather than substantive. Multipolar Tensions Intensifying US–China rivalry complicates India’s strategic calculus in the Indian Ocean Region. Any escalation could militarise maritime spaces further, affecting regional stability. Way Forward Strengthening Maritime Leadership India should deepen engagement through IORA, Colombo Security Conclave, and Quad platforms, reinforcing cooperative maritime security frameworks. Expand assistance to Mauritius in blue economy, climate resilience, and coastal infrastructure development. Promote adherence to UNCLOS, freedom of navigation, and peaceful dispute resolution mechanisms. Enhance indigenous naval capacity under Atmanirbhar Bharat, ensuring credible deterrence and maritime domain awareness. Conclusion The Chagos arrangement represents a convergence of decolonisation principles, strategic continuity, and great-power geopolitics in the Indian Ocean. For India, it underscores a dual role as Global South advocate and Indo-Pacific stabiliser, navigating legal norms and strategic realities. As trade, energy security, and geopolitical rivalry converge in the Indian Ocean Region, maritime strategy will remain central to India’s external engagement. “International Law is Not Dead”: Resilience Amid Geopolitical Turbulence Why in News? Debate on Decline of International Law Ongoing conflicts including the Russia–Ukraine war (since 2022) and the Israel–Hamas conflict (since 2023) have revived claims that international law is collapsing. Political rhetoric in major powers, including open references to territorial acquisition and unilateral military action, has intensified concerns over erosion of global legal norms. The central argument remains that despite visible violations, international law continues functioning through treaties, courts, trade regimes, and institutional mechanisms. Relevance GS Paper II – International Relations UN Charter Article 2(4) prohibition on use of force. Institutional resilience: International Court of Justice World Trade Organization International Criminal Court Russia–Ukraine war; Israel–Hamas conflict. Veto politics in UNSC. Practice Question   “Violations of international law do not imply its collapse.” Critically examine with contemporary examples.(250 Words) Core Norm: Prohibition on Use of Force Article 2(4) of the UN Charter Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the threat or use of force against territorial integrity or political independence of any state. This foundational norm has been breached in cases such as Iraq (2003), Crimea (2014), and Ukraine (2022), yet remains legally binding. Even violators seek legal justification—self-defence under Article 51 or humanitarian grounds—demonstrating enduring normative authority. Historical Evidence of Resilience Survival Through the Cold War During the Cold War (1947–1991), proxy wars occurred in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan, yet the international legal order did not collapse. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) continued adjudicating disputes despite superpower rivalry and non-compliance in some cases. Scholar Thomas Franck (1970) warned of legal erosion, yet post-Cold War expansion of treaties showed institutional adaptability. Judicialisation of International Relations Expanding Legal Architecture Over the past three decades, international law expanded into trade, investment, human rights, environmental protection, and maritime governance. The World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement system has adjudicated over 600 disputes since 1995, reflecting rule-based economic governance. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants against heads of state, reinforcing individual accountability norms. Trade and Economic Law as Evidence Rules-Based Global Integration More than 350 Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) are currently in force globally, reflecting reliance on treaty-based trade governance. Global merchandise trade crossed USD 25 trillion in 2023 (WTO data), largely regulated under multilateral and regional frameworks. States continue negotiating FTAs, digital trade agreements, and bilateral investment treaties despite geopolitical fragmentation. Humanitarian and Environmental Regimes Enduring Normative Commitments The Geneva Conventions (1949) are universally ratified, forming the bedrock of international humanitarian law. The Paris Agreement (2015) has over 190 parties, demonstrating sustained global cooperation on climate governance. Pandemic coordination under WHO frameworks and International Health Regulations (IHR) illustrates continued reliance on institutional legal mechanisms. Why Violations Do Not Equal Collapse ? Law Versus Compliance Debate Violations do not imply disappearance; domestic legal systems also experience crime without systemic legal breakdown. States seek legal rationalisations for military actions, confirming recognition of international legal legitimacy. Normative pressure manifests through economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and reputational costs, influencing state behaviour. Institutional Mechanisms Still Active Dispute Resolution and Arbitration Institutions such as the ICJ, WTO panels, UNCLOS tribunals, and investment arbitration bodies continue resolving interstate and investor-state disputes. The South China Sea Arbitration (2016) was adjudicated under UNCLOS, demonstrating continued procedural functioning despite enforcement challenges. Judicialisation has deepened particularly in trade, environmental law, and human rights adjudication. Challenges to International Law Geopolitical Fragmentation Rising multipolar competition among the US, China, Russia, and regional powers strains consensus-based institutions. UN Security Council veto politics limits enforcement of collective security measures in major conflicts. Selective compliance and perceived double standards weaken legitimacy and credibility of international legal frameworks. Indian Perspective Strategic Autonomy and Rules-Based Order India consistently advocates a rules-based international order, invoking UNCLOS in maritime matters and WTO principles in trade disputes. India balances sovereignty concerns with multilateral commitments, reflected in climate negotiations and over 250,000 troops contributed to UN peacekeeping historically. As a rising economic power, India benefits from predictable legal regimes governing trade, navigation, investment, and dispute resolution. Conclusion International law is under strain but not obsolete; violations reflect geopolitical contestation rather than normative extinction. Institutional continuity, expanding treaty networks, and growing judicialisation demonstrate systemic resilience. In an interdependent global economy, dismantling international law would impose severe economic, security, and reputational costs, ensuring its continued relevance.

Content New GDP Series Upgrades FY26 Growth to 7.6% in Second Advance Estimates Supreme Court Bans NCERT Class 8 Textbook: Contempt Powers and Academic Freedom Debate Tribal Affairs Ministry to Revamp Forest Rights Act Implementation Mechanism Meghalaya Strengthens Meningococcal Disease Surveillance After Agniveer Deaths Indian Navy Boosts Anti-Submarine Capability with Commissioning of INS Nirdeshak Pakistan–Afghanistan Escalation: Taliban Tensions and Regional Security Implications SOE 2026: India’s Life Expectancy Trends and Post-Pandemic Demographic Implications New GDP series upgrades FY26 growth to 7.6% in second advance estimates A. Issue in Brief India’s real GDP growth for FY 2025-26 projected at 7.6% (Second Advance Estimates) — higher than 7.4% (First Advance Estimates). Base year updated to 2022-23 (earlier 2011-12) → improved representativeness and sectoral granularity. Growth revisions: 2023-24 revised down to 7.2% (from 9.2%) 2024-25 revised up to 7.1% (from 6.5%) Nominal GDP revised downward for 2023–26 → impacts fiscal ratios (Fiscal Deficit/GDP, Debt/GDP). Sectoral pattern (FY26): Secondary: 9.5% (Manufacturing 12.5%) Services: 8.9% Primary: 2.8% (Agriculture 2.5%) Q3 FY26 growth: 7.8% (Q2: 8.4%; Q1: 6.7%) → moderate but stable momentum. Relevance GS Paper III – Economy  National Income Accounting (GDP, GVA, Base Year Revision). Real vs Nominal GDP implications. Sectoral growth patterns (Primary–Secondary–Tertiary). Structural transformation & Lewis Model. Fiscal deficit & Debt/GDP ratio (FRBM framework). Capex-led vs consumption-led growth debate. Manufacturing push under PLI. Rural distress & agricultural stagnation. B. Static Background 1. National Income Estimation Framework Compiled by Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) under National Statistical Office (NSO). Based on UN System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). Base year revision ensures: Structural shift capture (digital economy, formalization) Improved deflators and sector weights 2. GDP Concepts Real GDP: Adjusted for inflation. Nominal GDP: Current prices; determines fiscal ratios. Advance Estimates: Released before fiscal year ends; based on partial-year data. 3. Constitutional-Fiscal Link FRBM Act: Targets fiscal deficit and debt as % of GDP → Nominal GDP revision directly affects compliance trajectory. C. Key Dimensions 1. Structural Sectoral Shift Sector FY25 Growth FY26 Growth Structural Insight Primary 5% 2.8% Rural slowdown risk Manufacturing 8.3% 12.5% PLI, capex, exports Construction 7.1% 6.9% Public capex stabilizing Services 8.3% 8.9% Domestic demand + IT Inference: Growth increasingly manufacturing and services-driven; agriculture losing relative dynamism. 2. Economic Implications (i) Manufacturing Acceleration 12.5% growth suggests: PLI scheme traction Supply chain diversification (China+1 strategy) Strong corporate balance sheets Potential boost to exports and job creation. (ii) Agricultural Slowdown (2.5%) Implications: Rural demand compression MSP-fiscal burden pressures Inflation risk if supply shocks occur Agriculture employs ~45% workforce → disproportionate welfare impact. (iii) Services Dominance Double-digit growth in: Trade, hotels, transport (10.3%) Finance, IT, real estate (10%) Reflects: Urban consumption recovery Digital economy expansion Credit growth cycle 3. Fiscal & Macroeconomic Impact Nominal GDP Downward Revision Raises effective: Fiscal deficit ratio Debt-to-GDP ratio Could complicate glide path to 4.5% fiscal deficit target (FY26). Investment vs Consumption Manufacturing + construction suggest capex-led growth. Agriculture slowdown may reduce mass consumption multiplier. 4. Social Dimension Rural-Urban divergence risk. Inequality concerns (K-shaped growth). Job elasticity question: Manufacturing growth must translate into labour-intensive employment. Skilling urgency under Skill India Mission. 5. External Sector Angle High services growth supports current account stability. Manufacturing boost can reduce trade deficit if export competitive. Vulnerability: Global slowdown, oil prices. 6. Governance & Statistical Credibility Base year revision improves transparency. Need for: High-frequency employment data Better informal sector capture Enhances investor confidence if methodology robust. D. Critical Analysis 1. Growth Quality vs Growth Quantity 7.6% strong in global context (IMF global avg ~3%). But concerns: Agricultural stagnation Regional imbalances Limited wage growth 2. Manufacturing Momentum — Sustainable? Requires: Stable power supply Logistics cost reduction (currently ~14% of GDP) Labour reform effectiveness 3. Fiscal Arithmetic Risk Lower nominal GDP artificially inflates deficit ratios. Could pressure government to cut capital expenditure. 4. Structural Transformation Gap Agriculture share in GDP ~15% but workforce ~45%. Slow agri growth delays Lewis-type structural shift. E. Way Forward 1. Strengthen Rural Growth Irrigation expansion Crop diversification Agri value chains and food processing Direct income support reform (DBT rationalization) 2. Sustain Manufacturing Momentum Expand PLI to labour-intensive sectors (textiles, footwear). MSME credit deepening via digital lending. Reduce logistics cost to 8–9% of GDP (National Logistics Policy). 3. Fiscal Prudence with Growth Protect capital expenditure. Broaden tax base via GST compliance. Strategic asset monetisation. 4. Employment-Centric Strategy Align manufacturing push with employment elasticity. Skill reorientation toward EVs, semiconductors, AI. 5. Statistical Strengthening Periodic base revision every 5 years. Greater disclosure on deflators and informal sector estimation. F. Prelims Pointers Base year currently: 2022-23. Advance Estimates released in January (1st) and February (2nd). Real vs Nominal GDP distinction. Manufacturing classified under Secondary Sector. GDP compiled by NSO under MoSPI. Practice Mains Question (15 Marks) “India’s recent GDP estimates indicate strong headline growth but reveal emerging structural imbalances across sectors.” Examine the quality and sustainability of India’s growth trajectory.(250 Words) NCERT asks public to return Class 8 textbook, delete posts A. Issue in Brief The Supreme Court imposed a blanket ban and seizure order on an NCERT Class 8 Social Science textbook, invoking suo motu criminal contempt, alleging content undermined judicial credibility and constitutional institutions. The Court directed immediate withdrawal of all physical and digital copies, sought a compliance report, and initiated proceedings under the Contempt of Courts Act, 1971 for “scandalising the court.” The controversy raises structural concerns regarding judicial overreach, limits of academic freedom, proportionality in restrictions under Article 19(2), and institutional balance under the separation of powers doctrine. Relevance GS Paper II – Polity & Governance Articles 129 & 215 (Contempt powers). Contempt of Courts Act, 1971. Article 19(1)(a) vs 19(2). Separation of Powers. Judicial activism vs restraint. Education in Concurrent List (Entry 25). B. Constitutional & Legal Background Article 129 and Article 215 designate the Supreme Court and High Courts as Courts of Record, empowering them to punish for contempt independent of statutory codification. Under Section 2(c), Contempt of Courts Act, 1971, criminal contempt includes publications that “scandalise or lower the authority of the court,” a phrase criticised for vagueness and overbreadth. Article 19(1)(a) guarantees freedom of speech, while Article 19(2) permits reasonable restrictions including contempt; restrictions must satisfy the proportionality test evolved in modern constitutional jurisprudence. The 274th Law Commission Report (2018) recommended retaining contempt powers but acknowledged global shifts toward narrowing the “scandalising” offence to protect democratic criticism. C. Governance & Institutional Dimension NCERT, an autonomous body under the Ministry of Education, develops curriculum frameworks aligned with NEP 2020, raising concerns about executive-academic autonomy vis-à-vis judicial intervention. Education falls under Entry 25, Concurrent List, implying shared legislative competence; direct judicial content control risks blurring institutional boundaries between judiciary and executive. Blanket seizure orders may generate a bureaucratic chilling effect, discouraging curricular innovation and critical engagement with constitutional institutions in future textbooks. D. Social & Ethical Dimension  Democracies require tolerance of reasoned institutional critique; excessive contempt invocation may signal intolerance, affecting public perception of judicial confidence and constitutional maturity. Ethical dilemma: safeguarding institutional dignity versus nurturing critical constitutional literacy among students; balance required under principles of constitutional morality. Chilling academic discourse undermines deliberative democracy, where institutions strengthen legitimacy through openness rather than insulation from criticism. E. Separation of Powers & Judicial Restraint The doctrine of separation of powers mandates functional boundaries; direct textbook bans risk judicial encroachment into executive policymaking and curriculum design. Global comparative trend: the United Kingdom abolished “scandalising the court” in 2013, recognising reputational harm should not override democratic free speech values. Judicial legitimacy flows from public trust, not coercive enforcement; excessive reliance on contempt may paradoxically weaken institutional authority. F. Critical Analysis A blanket prohibition and seizure appears disproportionate when lesser remedies—clarifications, revised editions, or expert review panels—could have addressed alleged inaccuracies. The phrase “scandalising the court” lacks objective definitional limits, risking subjective interpretation and potential misuse against academic or journalistic critique. Frequent suo motu contempt actions may institutionalise judicial hyper-activism, disturbing equilibrium envisioned in constitutional design. However, protecting minors from distorted constitutional understanding remains a legitimate state interest, requiring careful balancing rather than absolutism. G. Way Forward Narrow interpretation of “scandalising” consistent with democratic standards; apply structured proportionality analysis before imposing extreme remedies like seizure or publication bans. Establish independent academic review committees to assess disputed content, ensuring evidence-based corrections rather than coercive suppression. Parliament may revisit the Contempt of Courts Act, 1971 to codify clearer definitional limits aligned with global best practices. Encourage judicial articulation emphasising tolerance of fair criticism, reinforcing confidence in constitutional democracy. H. Prelims Pointers Articles 129 & 215: Contempt powers of Supreme Court and High Courts. Criminal contempt includes “scandalising the court.” Education: Entry 25, Concurrent List. Contempt of Courts Act enacted in 1971; amended in 2006 to allow truth as defence. Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “The expansive use of contempt powers, though intended to protect judicial authority, may inadvertently undermine academic freedom and democratic discourse.” Critically examine. Tribal Affairs Ministry set to revamp forest rights cells, form ‘one-stop’ coordinating units A. Issue in Brief Nearly 20 years after enactment, implementation of the Forest Rights Act (2006) remains uneven, with the Union Tribal Affairs Ministry flagging slow claim disposal and poor institutional coordination across States. The Ministry has directed creation of PMU-like monitoring units in States to improve tracking of Individual Forest Rights (IFR) and Community Forest Rights (CFR) claims and expedite approvals. Recent review meetings highlighted persistent issues such as record-keeping gaps, digitisation delays, and inter-departmental conflicts, undermining the Act’s transformative objectives. Relevance GS Paper II – Governance Implementation challenges in welfare legislation. Centre–State coordination (Concurrent List Entry 17A). Gram Sabha empowerment. Administrative capacity gaps. GS Paper III – Environment Community Forest Rights (CFR). Conservation vs livelihood debate. Forest Conservation Act interface. B. Constitutional & Legal Background – Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006 The Forest Rights Act, 2006 was enacted under Parliament’s powers over Forests (Entry 17A, Concurrent List) and guided by Article 46, aiming to remedy the “historical injustice” faced by forest-dwelling communities. The Act recognises rights of Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (OTFDs) over land, Minor Forest Produce (MFP), grazing grounds, habitat, and community forest resources. It provides for Individual Forest Rights (IFR) over cultivated forest land (up to 4 hectares, without conferring new land) and Community Forest Rights (CFR) over shared traditional resources. Eligibility mandates STs to primarily reside in forest areas, while OTFDs must prove continuous residence for three generations (75 years) prior to 13 December 2005. Implementation follows a three-tier statutory structure: Gram Sabha (initiating authority) → Sub-Divisional Level Committee → District Level Committee (final approval authority). The Act empowers Gram Sabhas to protect wildlife, forests, and biodiversity, integrating community tenure with sustainable conservation objectives. In Wildlife First v. Union of India (2019), the Supreme Court flagged concerns over large-scale claim rejections and emphasised procedural safeguards in FRA implementation. C. Governance & Administrative Dimension Ministry proposes Project Monitoring Units (PMUs) to strengthen data analytics, verification processes, and digital dashboards for real-time tracking of claims. States have been asked to deploy dedicated officials at district level to support FRA implementation and improve coordination with forest departments. However, creation of “separate cells” risks administrative fragmentation and duplication if not integrated into existing district structures. Digitisation of forest rights records remains incomplete, affecting transparency and long-term tenure security. D. Economic Dimension Recognition of CFR rights enhances access to Minor Forest Produce (MFP), contributing to tribal incomes; MFP sector estimated at over ₹20,000 crore annually. Secure land tenure improves access to institutional credit and agricultural investment, reducing vulnerability to displacement. Delays in rights recognition restrict livelihood diversification, especially in forest-dependent regions of central and eastern India. E. Social & Ethical Dimension FRA intended to correct “historical injustice” caused by colonial forest laws like the Indian Forest Act, 1927. Weak implementation perpetuates marginalisation of STs (~8.6% of population, Census 2011) and OTFDs. Ethical tension between conservation-centric governance and community-based forest management approaches. Gram Sabha empowerment under FRA strengthens grassroots democracy and participatory governance. F. Environmental Dimension Evidence suggests Community Forest Resource (CFR) management can enhance biodiversity conservation through participatory stewardship. However, forest bureaucracy often resists CFR recognition, citing risks to ecological integrity. Integrating FRA with Forest Conservation Act, 1980 and CAMPA frameworks remains administratively complex. G. Data & Implementation Gaps As of latest data, over 45 lakh claims filed, with significant inter-State variation in approval rates. High rejection rates in some States due to procedural lapses, lack of evidence documentation, and inadequate awareness. CFR recognition remains disproportionately low compared to IFR, despite transformative potential. H. Critical Analysis Administrative inertia and forest department resistance dilute FRA’s rights-based character, reducing it to a welfare-style land allocation scheme. Creation of PMUs may improve monitoring, but structural issues lie in capacity deficits and attitudinal resistance. Inadequate digitisation and poor grievance redressal weaken accountability and transparency mechanisms. Balancing conservation with community rights requires integrated landscape-level governance rather than adversarial departmental approaches. I. Way Forward Mandate time-bound disposal of claims with transparent online dashboards accessible at Gram Sabha level. Strengthen capacity building of Gram Sabhas and ensure legal literacy among tribal communities. Integrate FRA data with National Forest Inventory and GIS platforms to avoid land classification conflicts. Encourage convergence with MSP for MFP scheme to enhance livelihood gains from recognised rights. Institutionalise third-party social audits to evaluate district-level FRA performance. J. Prelims Pointers FRA enacted in 2006; rules amended in 2012 to strengthen Gram Sabha role. Applies to STs and OTFDs residing in forests for at least three generations (75 years) in case of OTFDs. Recognises Individual and Community Forest Rights, including habitat rights for Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs). Forests in Concurrent List (42nd Constitutional Amendment, 1976). Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “Despite its progressive intent, the Forest Rights Act, 2006 continues to face significant implementation challenges.” Analyse the institutional and governance barriers and suggest reforms. Meghalaya steps up meningococcal disease surveillance A. Issue in Brief Two Agniveer trainees died of suspected meningococcal bacterial infection at a military training centre in Shillong, prompting a State-level health advisory and active outbreak investigation. Over 30 trainees quarantined, with epidemiological surveillance, contact tracing, and laboratory review initiated by the District Surveillance Unit, East Khasi Hills. Meghalaya government advised citizens to avoid crowded places, follow health protocols, and assured containment under standard outbreak response procedures. Relevance GS Paper II – Governance Public health as State List subject. Role of: Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme National Health Policy 2017. B. Medical & Epidemiological Background Caused by Neisseria meningitidis, a gram-negative bacterium transmitted via respiratory droplets, especially in crowded settings like hostels, barracks, or schools. Can cause meningitis (infection of brain membranes) or meningococcemia (bloodstream infection), with case fatality rates ranging from 10–15%, higher without timely antibiotics. Incubation period typically 2–10 days; close contacts require chemoprophylaxis and monitoring as per WHO outbreak guidelines. Vaccines available (MenACWY, MenB), but not part of India’s Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) except for special risk groups. C. Governance & Public Health Dimension Managed under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), which mandates rapid reporting, contact tracing, and district-level epidemiological investigation. Advisory reflects adherence to standard outbreak response protocols, including isolation, contact identification, and laboratory confirmation. Military-civilian coordination critical in cantonment outbreaks due to high-density living arrangements. Demonstrates importance of District Surveillance Units (DSUs) in decentralised public health response. D. Constitutional & Administrative Context Public health and sanitation fall under State List (Entry 6, List II), giving Meghalaya primary responsibility for outbreak containment. Centre may provide support under Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 or Disaster Management Act, 2005, if escalation occurs. Outbreak preparedness aligns with obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) for disease surveillance and reporting. E. Social & Ethical Dimension Risk of panic and stigma in small communities; requires transparent communication and responsible media reporting. Ethical obligation to ensure timely prophylaxis for close contacts and equitable access to treatment. Balancing preventive advisories with avoidance of unnecessary economic or social disruption. F. Bio-preparedness Angle Biosecurity protocols must integrate routine vaccination, early symptom reporting, and surveillance in defence establishments. G. Data & Public Health Capacity India’s IDSP covers all districts; however, public health expenditure remains around ~2.1% of GDP, below global averages. Northeast region faces healthcare access challenges due to terrain and infrastructure constraints. Early detection and no new suspected cases indicate functional surveillance containment at local level. H. Critical Analysis Outbreak underscores persistent vulnerability in closed institutional settings, similar to past meningitis outbreaks in educational hostels and defence units. Absence of routine meningococcal vaccination in UIP limits herd immunity in high-risk clusters. Surveillance effectiveness depends on laboratory capacity and rapid antibiotic administration. Risk communication must prevent misinformation while reinforcing preventive behaviour. I. Way Forward Consider targeted meningococcal vaccination strategy for high-density institutions (military academies, hostels). Strengthen laboratory infrastructure in Northeast under National Health Mission (NHM). Institutionalise periodic infection-control audits in defence training centres. Expand digital disease surveillance through integrated health data platforms. Increase public health expenditure toward 2.5% of GDP target (National Health Policy 2017). J. Prelims Pointers Neisseria meningitidis causes meningococcal meningitis. Transmitted via respiratory droplets. Not universally covered under India’s UIP. Public health is a State List subject. IDSP functions under MoHFW. Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “Localized infectious disease outbreaks test the robustness of India’s public health surveillance and response mechanisms.” Examine in the context of recent meningococcal cases in Meghalaya. Navy boosts anti-submarine capability with INS Anjadip A. Issue in Brief The Indian Navy commissioned INS Nirdeshak, the fourth indigenously built anti-submarine warfare shallow water craft (ASW-SWC) at Chennai, strengthening coastal defence and littoral surveillance architecture. The vessel, 77 metres long, is designed for operations in coastal and shallow waters, reflecting India’s focus on countering submarine threats in near-shore maritime zones. Built at Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE), Kolkata, the platform underscores India’s progress under Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defence shipbuilding. Relevance GS Paper III – Internal Security / Defence B. Strategic & Security Context ASW-SWC vessels are critical amid expanding submarine presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), including Chinese PLA Navy deployments under “dual-use” maritime strategy. Enhances Navy’s capability to detect and neutralise diesel-electric submarines, especially in chokepoints and congested littoral waters. Complements India’s maritime doctrine of “sea control in near seas and sea denial in extended neighbourhood.” Supports security in vital Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) carrying nearly 90% of India’s trade by volume. C. Technological & Operational Features Equipped with indigenous sonar systems, lightweight torpedoes, and sub-surface surveillance technologies for high-precision underwater threat detection. Integrates advanced combat management systems for real-time data processing and tactical response. Capable of surveillance, interdiction, search-and-rescue (SAR), and low-intensity maritime operations. Designed for high manoeuvrability in shallow coastal environments where larger destroyers or frigates face operational constraints. D. Economic & Industrial Dimension Constructed under India’s indigenous shipbuilding programme, contributing to domestic defence manufacturing ecosystem and MSME supplier networks. Aligns with Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020, prioritising “Buy (Indian-IDDM)” category. Enhances technological spillovers in marine engineering, electronics, and indigenous propulsion systems. Defence shipbuilding contributes to employment generation and strategic industrial capacity building. E. Governance & Policy Linkages Supports Maritime India Vision 2030 and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine. Strengthens coastal security post 26/11 Mumbai attacks, where shallow-water monitoring vulnerabilities were exposed. Enhances synergy with Indian Coast Guard in layered maritime security framework. Reflects emphasis on indigenisation under Make in India (Defence) and reduction of import dependency. F. Environmental & Disaster Response Role Equipped to undertake Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations in cyclone-prone eastern seaboard. Coastal vessels can assist in evacuation, relief logistics, and maritime search-and-rescue missions. Dual-use capability enhances climate resilience response capacity in Bay of Bengal region. G. Critical Analysis ASW-SWC vessels strengthen coastal defence but must integrate seamlessly with P-8I maritime patrol aircraft and submarine fleet for layered deterrence. Maritime threats evolving toward hybrid warfare; requires integration of cyber and underwater drone countermeasures. Sustained budgetary allocation necessary to maintain naval modernisation amid continental security pressures. H. Way Forward Expand indigenous development of advanced sonar arrays and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). Strengthen real-time maritime domain awareness through integration with Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR). Increase defence R&D expenditure beyond current levels (~0.7% of GDP overall defence outlay for R&D component). Enhance joint exercises with QUAD partners to build interoperability in ASW operations. Promote export potential of ASW-SWC platforms to friendly IOR nations. I. Prelims Pointers INS Nirdeshak: Fourth ASW Shallow Water Craft. Built by GRSE, Kolkata. Designed for anti-submarine operations in shallow coastal waters. Part of India’s indigenous defence shipbuilding push. IOR is central to India’s maritime security strategy. Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “Indigenous anti-submarine warfare capabilities are central to India’s maritime security strategy in the Indian Ocean Region.” Examine in light of recent naval inductions. Pakistan–Afghanistan Tensions: Taliban, Terror & Regional Security Implications A. Issue in Brief Pakistan launched airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, targeting alleged Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) camps after cross-border militant attacks killed Pakistani security personnel. Taliban regime condemned strikes as violation of sovereignty, escalating tensions and raising concerns of potential “open war” rhetoric from Islamabad. Cross-border exchanges highlight persistent instability along the Durand Line, reviving concerns over regional terrorism spillovers and strategic recalibration. Relevance GS Paper II – International Relations Durand Line dispute. Taliban–TTP distinction. Article 2(4) & Article 51 (UN Charter). Strategic depth doctrine. Regional geopolitics (CPEC, SCO). B. Historical & Geopolitical Background The Durand Line (1893) demarcates the Pakistan–Afghanistan boundary but remains contested by Afghan regimes, including the current Taliban administration. Pakistan supported Taliban factions historically for “strategic depth” against India; post-2021 Taliban takeover altered Islamabad’s leverage calculus. The TTP, ideologically aligned with Afghan Taliban but organisationally distinct, seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state. Afghanistan remains geopolitically central, connecting Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia, amplifying instability spillover risks. C. Security & Strategic Dimension TTP attacks in Pakistan surged after Taliban takeover in 2021, with militants allegedly operating from Afghan sanctuaries. Pakistan accuses Kabul of harbouring militants; Taliban denies formal support but has limited control over decentralized armed groups. Escalation risks include: Cross-border retaliation Refugee flows (Afghan refugees in Pakistan exceed 1.3 million registered) Radicalisation spillover Nuclear-armed Pakistan facing internal insurgency adds strategic volatility. D. International Relations & Regional Dynamics China concerned over security of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects; instability threatens Belt and Road investments. U.S. maintains limited over-the-horizon counter-terror capability post-2021 withdrawal. India monitors developments closely due to past Afghanistan engagement and counter-terror concerns. E. Governance & Internal Political Context Pakistan faces simultaneous economic crisis (low forex reserves, IMF dependency) and political instability. Civil-military imbalance complicates coherent Afghanistan policy. Escalatory military posturing may serve domestic political signalling amid internal unrest. F. Economic Dimension Bilateral trade disrupted by border closures at Torkham and Chaman crossings, affecting regional commerce. Afghanistan dependent on Pakistani transit routes for external trade; tensions exacerbate humanitarian fragility. Instability undermines regional connectivity initiatives such as CASA-1000 and TAPI pipeline. G. Social & Humanitarian Dimension Afghanistan faces ongoing humanitarian crisis; over 28 million people require assistance (UN estimates 2024). Border skirmishes risk displacement and refugee pressures on Pakistan and neighbouring states. Radical militant narratives may exploit conflict, fuelling recruitment. H. Way Forward Establish structured bilateral counter-terror dialogue mechanism between Islamabad and Kabul. Strengthen border management with biometric systems and coordinated patrols along the Durand Line. Encourage regional framework under Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for counter-terror cooperation. Promote economic engagement and development assistance to reduce militant recruitment incentives. International mediation via UN channels to prevent escalation into sustained conflict. I. Prelims Pointers Durand Line (1893) divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. TTP distinct from Afghan Taliban; operates primarily against Pakistani state. ISIS-K active in Afghanistan. Afghanistan not formally recognised by most countries post-2021 Taliban takeover. Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “Pakistan’s evolving tensions with the Taliban regime highlight the unintended consequences of strategic depth policies.” Critically examine the regional security implications. SOE 2026: India’s Life Expectancy Trajectory – Pandemic Shock & Demographic Implications A. Issue in Brief India’s life expectancy at birth (LEB) rose steadily from 49.7 years (early 1970s) to 70 years (2016–20), reflecting five decades of sustained demographic transition and public health improvement. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted this trajectory; LEB declined marginally to 69.8 years (2017–21), marking the first reversal in decades. Decline visible across geographies: Urban LEB fell from 73.2 to 72.9 years, while rural LEB declined from 68.6 to 68.5 years, coinciding with excess mortality during 2020–21. Relevance GS Paper I – Society & Demography Demographic transition. Rural–Urban disparity. Gender life expectancy differences. GS Paper II – Governance National Health Policy 2017. Sample Registration System (SRS). Public health as State subject. B. Conceptual & Methodological Background Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) measures average years a newborn is expected to live, assuming current age-specific death rates (ASDRs) persist throughout life. Estimates derived from Sample Registration System (SRS), India’s large-scale demographic survey under the Registrar General of India (MHA). India uses MORTPAK 4 software, developed by the United Nations, to generate abridged life tables using five-year averaged ASDRs. Rural-urban and gender disaggregation enhances statistical reliability and policy targeting precision. C. Demographic & Epidemiological Dimension Long-term rise reflects progress in maternal health, immunisation, sanitation, and communicable disease control. Pandemic-induced reversal linked to increased mortality in 2020–21, especially among elderly and comorbid populations. Even a 0.2-year decline is demographically significant in large populations, signalling systemic stress in health infrastructure. Indicates vulnerability of health gains to external shocks and emerging infectious diseases. D. Governance & Public Health Dimension Highlights importance of resilient health systems under National Health Mission (NHM) and Ayushman Bharat. Reinforces need to meet National Health Policy 2017 target of increasing life expectancy to 70 by 2025. Pandemic exposed gaps in critical care capacity, oxygen infrastructure, and health workforce distribution. Strengthening Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) essential for early mortality trend detection. E. Economic Dimension Life expectancy closely linked to human capital formation and labour productivity. Temporary mortality shock may alter dependency ratios, pension liabilities, and actuarial projections. Health shocks increase out-of-pocket expenditure, affecting household savings and consumption. Long-term demographic dividend sustainability depends on restoring mortality decline trajectory. F. Social & Inequality Dimension Rural LEB remains ~4 years lower than urban, reflecting disparities in healthcare access, nutrition, and sanitation. Gender differentials persist, though female life expectancy generally exceeds male due to biological and behavioural factors. Pandemic disproportionately affected vulnerable groups, widening socio-economic health inequities. Regional disparities likely sharper across BIMARU and aspirational districts. G. International & Comparative Context Global life expectancy declined during COVID-19; many high-income countries experienced 1–2 year reductions, larger than India’s 0.2-year fall. India’s relatively smaller decline may reflect younger demographic structure and undercount debates. Aligns with SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) targets on mortality reduction. H. Critical Analysis Modest numerical decline masks broader structural stress on health systems and data reporting mechanisms. Reliance on five-year averages may smooth short-term shocks, underrepresenting acute mortality spikes. Need to integrate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems for more real-time mortality tracking. Recovery trajectory dependent on sustained public health financing beyond emergency response phase. I. Way Forward Increase public health expenditure toward 2.5% of GDP target (NHP 2017) to build resilient primary and tertiary care systems. Strengthen CRVS digitisation and mortality audits for real-time life expectancy monitoring. Expand geriatric healthcare and non-communicable disease screening under Ayushman Bharat – Health and Wellness Centres. Integrate pandemic preparedness into routine health planning with stockpiling and rapid-response protocols. Address rural-urban health gaps via telemedicine, mobile medical units, and specialist outreach. J. Prelims Pointers Life expectancy at birth based on age-specific mortality rates. Derived from SRS data under Registrar General of India. MORTPAK 4 used for abridged life table estimation. Public health is a State List subject (Entry 6, List II). National Health Policy 2017 targets life expectancy of 70 years by 2025. Mains Practice Question (15 Marks) “Life expectancy trends reflect the overall health and socio-economic resilience of a nation.” Analyse India’s recent trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 disruption.