Content: RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN S &T Coal Gasification Initiative RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN S &T Government-led R&D initiatives in academic institutions foster innovation, strengthen industry-academia collaboration, and enhance India’s global research competitiveness. Relevance : GS-3 ( Science & Technology, Innovation) Significance of R&D Measures in Academic Institutions Bridging Theory and Practice: Exposure to R&D enables students to apply theoretical knowledge to real-world problems. Fostering Innovation & Critical Thinking: Encourages creativity and problem-solving abilities through hands-on research. Academia-Industry Collaboration: Strengthens the linkage between academic institutions and industries, facilitating technology transfer. Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Provides students with opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration and international research exposure. Preparation for Knowledge-Driven Economy: Trains students to meet the demands of an evolving economy driven by research, technology, and innovation. Impact of Government-Led R&D Initiatives on Student Exposure Ph.D. Enrollment Growth: Increased by 81.2% from 1.17 lakh (2015-16) to 2.13 lakh (2021-22). Rise in Female Participation: Female Ph.D. enrollment doubled from 48,000 (2014-15) to 99,000 (2021-22), enhancing gender representation. Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in Higher Education: Overall GER increased from 23.7% (2014-15) to 28.4% (2021-22) for ages 18-23 years. Female GER rose from 22.9% (2014-15) to 28.5% (2021-22). STEM Enrollment: 25.6% of total enrollments (98.49 lakh students in 2021-22) were in STEM fields at UG, PG, and Ph.D. levels. Key R&D Initiatives by the Government A. Department of Biotechnology (DBT) Initiatives Fellowship Programs: DBT-JRF, DBT-RA, Ramalingaswami Re-entry Fellowship, BioCARe Fellowship, and M K Bhan Fellowship provide research opportunities. Research Infrastructure Support (RRSFP Programme): DBT-BUILDER: Strengthened 177 departments in 45 universities/institutes (Central, State, and Private). DBT-SAHAJ: Created a national research resource-sharing platform for academia and industry collaboration. Star College Programme (2008): Focuses on hands-on experimental science at UG level to encourage students toward research careers. DBT-BIRAC Amrit Team Grant: Supports collaborative research between academia, clinical institutions, and startups. B. Department of Scientific & Industrial Research (DSIR) Initiatives CSIR Doctoral & Postdoctoral Fellowships: Provides fellowships for young researchers, with over 650 academic and R&D institutions benefiting. Support for Research Projects: Financial assistance for frontier scientific research, contributing to scientific publications, patents, and technology development. India’s Global Research Standing: Ranked 3rd globally in publishing Science and Engineering research articles. Increased researchers per million population from 215 (2015) to 260 (2020). C. Department of Science and Technology (DST) Initiatives INSPIRE (Innovation in Science Pursuit for Inspired Research): INSPIRE Internship: Science camps for top 1% Class X students. Scholarship for Higher Education (SHE): 12,000 annual scholarships for UG-level students in science. INSPIRE Fellowship: 1,000 fellowships annually for Ph.D. students. INSPIRE Faculty Fellowship: 100 fellowships annually for young researchers (27-32 years). FIST (Fund for Improvement of S&T Infrastructure): Supports basic infrastructure and emerging research facilities. Benefitted 3,072 departments & PG colleges, with a ₹3,130.82 crore budget. SATHI Centres (Sophisticated Analytical and Technical Help Institutes): Provides high-end research equipment and training for researchers, MSMEs, and startups. PURSE (Promotion of University Research and Scientific Excellence): Strengthens university R&D ecosystems and capabilities. WISE-KIRAN (Women in Science & Engineering): Provides targeted programs for women scientists to improve participation in S&T research. Conclusion: Increased Research Output: Higher Ph.D. enrollments and research projects contribute to India’s scientific advancements. Stronger Academia-Industry Linkages: Facilitates technology transfer and innovation in industries. Greater Global Competitiveness: Empowers students for international research collaborations and cutting-edge technological advancements. Coal Gasification Initiative Coal gasification is a strategic initiative that converts coal into syngas, facilitating cleaner energy production and reducing import dependence on fossil fuels. The government’s ₹8,500 crore incentive and policy reforms aim to promote sustainable industrial growth and align with India’s Vision 2047 for a developed economy. Relevance : GS-3 (Infrastructure, Energy Security, Environment & Economy) Financial Incentive for Coal Gasification Projects Outlay of ₹8,500 crore: Approved on January 24, 2024, to promote coal/lignite gasification. Covers both PSUs and private sector: Aims to encourage widespread adoption of gasification technology. Investment by Coal India Limited (CIL) in Joint Ventures CIL-BHEL and CIL-GAIL Joint Ventures: Established for coal gasification projects. Strategic partnerships: Aim to enhance technological capabilities and execution efficiency. Creation of a New Sub-Sector for Syngas Production (2022) “Production of Syngas leading to coal gasification” added under NRS linkage auctions policy. Support through auction mechanisms: Floor price set at the notified price of the regulated sector. Applicable to projects commissioned within seven years. Incentives for Coal Gasification in Commercial Coal Block Auctions 50% rebate on revenue share for coal used in gasification. Condition: At least 10% of total coal production from the block must be used for gasification. Strategic Importance of Coal Gasification Alternative use of coal: Converts coal into syngas (synthetic gas). Key downstream products: Methanol – Used in chemicals and fuels. Ammonium Nitrate – Essential for fertilizers and explosives. Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) – Alternative to conventional natural gas. Fertilizers – Reducing dependence on imported fertilizers. Supports environmental sustainability by reducing direct coal combustion emissions. Aligns with India’s Vision 2047 of achieving a developed, self-reliant economy. Impact Assessment Status No specific impact assessment of the financial incentive scheme has been conducted yet. CIL’s Expansion into Critical Minerals Acquisition of Khattali Chhoti Graphite Block (Madhya Pradesh) through e-auction. Global partnerships: Signed Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) with companies from Argentina and Australia. Focus on acquiring lithium assets in Argentina. Reducing Import Dependency on Critical Minerals Exclusive auction rights to Central Government for 24 critical minerals. Critical Mineral Mission (Union Budget 2024-25): Focus areas: Domestic production Recycling Overseas acquisitions Research & Development (R&D) Aims to ensure self-sufficiency and supply chain resilience in critical minerals. Conclusion The coal gasification initiative is a major step toward energy security and reducing environmental impact. Financial and policy incentives aim to boost private and public sector participation. CIL’s expansion into critical minerals aligns with India’s efforts to reduce import dependency.

Content: A delimitation red flag — the lessons from J&K, Assam Telecom tribunal reforms to handle data protection pleas A delimitation red flag — the lessons from J&K, Assam Context : Delimitation is the process of redrawing boundaries of electoral constituencies based on changes in population. The upcoming 2026 Delimitation Commission is expected to redistribute parliamentary and assembly seats, potentially shifting political power towards more populous states. Concerns arise regarding population-based seat allocation, as southern states argue that it penalizes them for successful population control measures. Relevance : GS 2(Polity ,Governance, Federalism) Practice Question : Delimitation is a crucial exercise in ensuring fair political representation, but it also carries risks of demographic and communal manipulation. Analyze the recent delimitation exercises in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, highlighting the challenges they pose for the upcoming 2026 delimitation process. Suggest measures to uphold the principles of federalism and electoral integrity. (250 words) Democratic and Federal Concerns Freezing Parliamentary Seats but Expanding Assembly Seats Suggested as a middle ground to maintain democratic representation while addressing state-level governance needs. MLAs serve as the first point of contact for citizens, while MPs represent national interests. Rajya Sabha Redistribution Proposal Equal distribution of Rajya Sabha seats among the five geographic zones to balance power between high and low-population states. Existing Zonal Councils and the Inter-State Council could be revived to strengthen federal coordination. Case Study: Jammu & Kashmir Delimitation (2022) Disproportionate Seat Allocation Jammu gained six new seats, while only one was added to the Valley, despite population differences. This resulted in a vote weight of 1.2 for Jammu against 1 for the Valley, skewing representation. Geographical and Administrative Challenges The merger of Jammu’s Poonch and Rajouri with Kashmir’s Anantnag Lok Sabha seat defied topographical and administrative logic. These regions belong to separate ecological and cultural zones—Pir Panjal (Jammu) and Jhelum Valley (Kashmir). Communal Redrawing of Constituencies Several newly created constituencies, such as Jasrota, Ramgarh, Ramnagar, and Vaishno Devi, have undergone demographic shifts due to restructuring. Kishtwar constituency was restructured by merging areas from Inderwal, altering its voter composition. Significant variations in electorate sizes exist, with some constituencies having around 50,000 voters while others have up to 1.92 lakh voters, raising concerns about voter parity and representation balance.  Case Study: Assam Delimitation (2023) Preemptive District Mergers in Assam The Assam government merged four districts before delimitation, reducing the total number from 35 to 31. This restructuring led to the removal or reconfiguration of multiple constituencies, including South Salmara, Barpeta, and Karimganj. Broader Implications for the 2026 Delimitation Challenges in Electoral Demarcation Recent experiences in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam indicate that delimitation can significantly impact political representation. Ensuring balanced constituency formation is critical to preventing regional and demographic disparities. Electoral Representation and Federal Balance Redrawing of constituencies has led to shifts in voting patterns, raising concerns about political polarization. Delimitation based purely on population figures may reduce the relative influence of southern and developed states, impacting federal representation. Maintaining a balance in representation is essential to uphold the principles of pluralism and cooperative federalism. Ensuring Fair and Transparent Delimitation Independent and Transparent Process Establishing non-partisan, scientifically driven criteria for constituency boundaries. Enhancing institutional autonomy in the delimitation exercise. Strengthening Federal Mechanisms Reviving the Inter-State Council and Zonal Councils to address regional concerns. Avoiding central overreach in electoral mapping. Balanced Representation Framework Freezing the total number of Lok Sabha seats while expanding State Assemblies to accommodate demographic shifts. Redistributing Rajya Sabha seats to ensure equitable regional representation. Upholding Electoral Integrity Preventing gerrymandering to ensure fair representation for all communities. Ensuring equal electorate sizes across constituencies to uphold the principle of “one person, one vote.” Telecom tribunal reforms to handle data protection pleas Background and Context The Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023 (DPDP Act) aims to regulate the processing of personal data in India. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) released draft Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025. The Data Protection Board (DPB) is the designated adjudicatory body for data protection violations, with appeals directed to the Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT). Relevance : GS 2(Tribunals ,Governance, Data Protection) Practice Question : Critically analyze the feasibility of the Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT) as an appellate body for data protection disputes. Suggest reforms to enhance its efficiency and accountability. (15 marks) Concerns with the Current Tribunal System Lack of independence: The executive has control over appointments to the DPB, raising concerns over separation of powers. Questionable feasibility: The TDSAT, traditionally handling telecom disputes, may lack the expertise and capacity to handle data protection cases. Required Reforms for TDSAT to Handle Data Protection Appeals A. Appointment of a Technical Member with Data Protection Expertise Current Structure: As per Section 14C of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) Act, 1997, a TDSAT member must have expertise in technology, telecom, industry, commerce, or administration. Challenges: Data protection involves legal principles of consent, storage, processing, and privacy, distinct from telecom regulations. Telecom laws focus on infrastructure, spectrum allocation, and service providers, whereas data protection concerns individual rights and privacy safeguards. Solution: Amend Section 14C of the TRAI Act to mandate a technical member specializing in data protection and privacy laws. B. Addressing TDSAT’s Case Burden and Capacity Constraints Rising Caseload: 3,448 pending cases (Feb 2020–Feb 2025). The newly enacted Telecommunications Act, 2023 will further increase workload. Appeals under DPDP Act must be disposed of within six months, which may be less realistic given current case backlogs. Structural Issues: Only one technical member (no judicial member) on the bench in January 2025, violating Supreme Court guidelines on tribunal composition. Solutions: Increased budgetary allocation to expand the number of benches and recruit judicial members. Setting up dedicated benches for data protection cases to avoid further backlog. C. Upgrading Digital Infrastructure for Efficient Case Management Existing Issues: The TDSAT website is not user-friendly, affecting accessibility and digital filing efficiency. Digital filing of appeals is mandated, but current technological infrastructure is inadequate. Solution: Upgrade TDSAT’s digital platform to improve ease of access, track case status, and enable real-time updates. The Legal Cases Management System implemented by TRAI (2023) must be assessed for effectiveness and improved accordingly. D. Ensuring Transparency and Accountability Lack of reporting on TDSAT’s case disposal rates raises concerns about efficiency. Solution: TDSAT should publish annual reports with: Number of data protection appeals filed, resolved, and pending. Average disposal time for cases. Key legal issues addressed in appeals. Conclusion TDSAT needs institutional, structural, and technological reforms to effectively function as the appellate body for data protection cases. The reforms must ensure expertise, efficiency, digital readiness, and transparency to uphold the rule of law and individual privacy rights.

Content: V-P calls for debate on freebies, policy on efficient use of public investments A regional divide in blue-collar worker migration from India What are the different risks and rewards of using UAVs? Per capita income claims by States contradict high BPL population: SC U.S., U.K. replace Gulf nations as top source of remittances’ NASA astronauts stranded in space for nine months back on earth with a splashdown El Niño or La Niña? Murky pattern of temperature keeps confusion alive V-P calls for debate on freebies, policy on efficient use of public investments Context:Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar’s Call for Debate: Criticized the culture of “freebies” and called for a structured national policy on government investments. Emphasized that capital expenditure (capex) is crucial for economic growth, and electoral allurements can burden future governments. Relevance : GS 2(Governance ) Subsidies & Global Comparison: Stressed that subsidies should be direct, transparent, and without intermediaries, as practiced in developed nations like the U.S. Cited the example of U.S. farm subsidies, where direct transfers ensure that farm household incomes exceed general household incomes. Context of the Debate: Came in response to Samajwadi Party MP Ramgopal Yadav’s demand to increase MPLADS funds from ₹5 crore to ₹20 crore per year due to rising construction costs. Yadav highlighted that MLAs in Uttar Pradesh get ₹5 crore, while Delhi MLAs have ₹10 crore for constituency development. Fiscal & Policy Implications: The demand for higher MPLADS funds reflects the need to adjust for inflation and rising project costs. The proposal to exempt MPLADS funds from GST suggests concerns over effective utilization of funds for development. The broader issue of freebies vs. targeted welfare remains a critical fiscal and governance challenge. Relevance Economic Perspective : Freebies can strain public finances, affecting long-term growth. Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) align with fiscal prudence and targeted welfare. Governance & Policy: Need for a structured national policy to regulate government investments and avoid unsustainable populism. Parliamentary discussion could shape future fiscal policy and subsidy reforms. Electoral & Political Considerations: Freebies often serve as electoral incentives, impacting fiscal discipline. Governments face challenges in balancing welfare with economic sustainability. A regional divide in blue-collar worker migration from India Context : Declining Migration from Southern & Western States: Historically high migrant-sending States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Punjab have seen a sharpdrop in the number of workers emigrating to Gulf nations. Example: Kerala’s emigration fell from 82,000 (2014-16) to 60,000 (2021-24); Tamil Nadu’s from 1.3 lakh to 78,000. Punjab, a major contributor, also saw a decline from 94,000 to 39,000. Relevance : GS 2(Social Justice) Sustained Migration from Northern & Eastern States: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to send a high volume of blue-collar workers to the Gulf, despite falling remittances. U.P. workers exceeded 4 lakh in both periods, while Bihar’s remained over 2 lakh. West Bengal and Rajasthan also saw moderate declines but still contribute significantly. Changing Remittance Patterns: Gulf’s Declining Share in India’s Remittances: The share of remittances from UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait has significantly dropped. UAE fell from 26.9% (2016-17) to 19.2% (2023-24), Saudi Arabia from 11.6% to 6.7%, and Kuwait from 6.5% to 3.9%. Rise in Remittances from Advanced Economies: Inward remittances have increased from the U.S., U.K., Singapore, and Canada, suggesting a shift in migrant destinations. U.S. share rose from 22.9% to 27.7%, U.K. from 3.4% to 10.8%. State-wise Trends in Remittances: States with declining Gulf migration are receiving higher remittances. Maharashtra (16.7% to 20.5%), Kerala (19% to 19.7%), Tamil Nadu (8% to 10.4%) have seen growth. Bihar, U.P., West Bengal, and Rajasthan continue to receive a minimal share (1%-3%), despite sending more workers. Migration Trends & Economic Implications: Possible Shift in Migration Destinations: Declining remittances from Gulf countries indicate that workers from Southern and Western States may be moving to advanced economies for better financial returns. Higher remittances from the U.S., U.K., and Singapore suggest a preference for white-collar jobs and skilled migration. Persistent Outflow from U.P. & Bihar Despite Low Wages: Limited employment opportunities in North and Eastern India may be forcing workers to migrate to Gulf nations despite stagnant or declining wages. Gulf migration remains a livelihood necessity rather than a choice for these workers. Electorate vs. Migration Skew: U.P. forms 15.8% of India’s electorate but accounted for 34% of ECs issued (2021-24). Bihar has 7.9% of the electorate but accounted for 17.4% of ECs issued. This indicates a disproportionately high dependence on Gulf migration for employment in these States. Policy & Governance Concerns: Need for Skill Development & Diversified Job Creation: Enhancing skilled migration opportunities to advanced economies can improve remittance flows. Investments in domestic manufacturing and services are needed to reduce Gulf dependency. Reforms in Migration Policy & Worker Protections: Ensuring higher wages and better working conditions for Gulf migrants is crucial. Streamlining bilateral agreements with Gulf nations for better job security. Regional Economic Disparities: Southern and Western States are transitioning to a higher-remittance economy, while North and East India remain reliant on low-wage Gulf migration. A national strategy is needed to bridge this divide and create sustainable employment avenues. What are the different risks and rewards of using UAVs? Why are UAVs seen as less of a threat? UAVs are generally perceived as less dangerous than piloted fighter jets. Even weaponized UAVs have lower firepower compared to fighter aircraft. A significant proportion of UAVs are used for surveillance and reconnaissance rather than combat. The absence of a pilot reduces the perception of direct state aggression. UAV missions pose lower financial and human risks, making them a more viable option for intelligence gathering. Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Internal Security ,Technology) Recent Examples of UAV Usage and Responses Iran-U.S. incident (2019): Iran shot down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. claimed it was over international waters, but refrained from military retaliation. Russia-U.S. incident (2023): Russia downed an American MQ-9 Reaper UAV. The U.S. did not escalate militarily. Pattern of Response: Countries tend to react less aggressively to UAV incidents compared to fighter jet incursions. This enables states to use UAVs more frequently in foreign airspace, leading to potential risk-taking behavior. Implications for India Challenges with Pakistan: Pakistan-based UAVs often transport arms and drugs across the border. India has used expensive air-to-air missiles (e.g., Su-30 interception in 2019) to neutralize them, raising cost-effectiveness concerns. Need for cost-efficient counter-UAV solutions. Bangladesh’s UAV deployment: Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs are used near the Indian border for surveillance. India must decide how to respond without escalating tensions. Strategic Considerations for India: As UAVs become integral to modern warfare, India must adapt its military strategy. Development of counter-UAV technology (e.g., jammers, directed energy weapons) is crucial. Policy decisions should weigh security risks, economic costs, and diplomatic repercussions. Conclusion UAVs present both opportunities and challenges in modern warfare. They offer low-risk intelligence gathering, but also encourage bold and frequent incursions. Per capita income claims by States contradict high BPL population: SC Context :Supreme Court’s Observations The Supreme Court (SC) questioned how some States claim high per capita income while having up to 70% of their population Below Poverty Line (BPL). This contradiction raises doubts about the actual distribution of economic progress and wealth. The SC questioned whether subsidized ration schemes are genuine welfare measures or merely political popularity tactics. Relevance : GS 2(Governance ,Social Justice) Petitioners’ Arguments Advocates Prashant Bhushan and Cheryl D’Souza highlighted growing economic inequality as a major issue. A small percentage of the population holds immense wealth, while a vast majority struggle on ₹30-₹40 per day. They emphasized the need for an inclusive and equitable Public Distribution System (PDS). Concerns Over Public Distribution System (PDS) Justice Surya Kant noted that political considerations might influence ration card distribution, affecting genuine beneficiaries. Corruption and mismanagement at various levels delay or disrupt food supply to the poor. Despite these flaws, the SC asserted that PDS should not be discouraged, as it plays a vital role in food security. Centre’s Stand on Food Security Additional Solicitor-General Aishwarya Bhati reaffirmed the Centre’s commitment under the National Food Security Act (NFSA). Current Coverage: NFSA covers 81.35% of the population. 11 crore people are additionally covered under the Anganwadi scheme. Another 22 crore people receive food security benefits through other programs. Key Takeaways Economic growth claims vs. poverty statistics highlight a gap in development benefits. Ration distribution efficiency needs scrutiny to ensure food reaches the deserving poor. Inequality concerns must be addressed to ensure wealth distribution aligns with per capita income growth. Strengthening and depoliticizing PDS is crucial for effective food security in India. ‘U.S., U.K. replace Gulf nations as top source of remittances’ Context : Key Findings from RBI’s Report A shift in remittance sources has been observed in the past four years. Developed economies (U.S. & U.K.) have replaced Gulf nations as the top contributors of remittances to India. RBI’s Sixth Round of India’s Remittances Survey (March 2024) highlights this transformation. Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Remittance) Rise of the U.S. & U.K. Share of U.S. & U.K. remittances increased from 26% in FY17 to 40% in FY24. The U.S. alone contributed nearly 28% in FY24, up from 23.4% in FY21. The U.K.’s share surged from 3% in FY17 to 10.8% in FY24. The shift is attributed to the rising share of Indian professionals and skilled workers in these countries. Decline in Gulf Contributions UAE’s share dropped from 27% (FY17) to 19.2% (FY24). Saudi Arabia’s contribution nearly halved, falling from 11.6% (FY17) to 6.7% (FY24). This decline suggests stagnation in remittances from traditional sources like the Gulf. Reasons Behind the Shift Increased migration of Indian professionals to high-paying sectors in developed economies. Slower wage growth & economic shifts in Gulf nations affecting remittance flows. More Indians in white-collar jobs abroad leading to higher per capita remittances. Key Takeaways The remittance pattern highlights India’s changing migration trends. Developed nations now drive remittance growth, reducing dependence on Gulf economies. This trend may impact India’s foreign exchange inflows & economic planning in the long run. NASA astronauts stranded in space for nine months back on earth with a splashdown Context : NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, along with Nick Hague (USA) and Aleksandr Gorbunov (Russia), returned to Earth after an unexpected nine-month stay in space. The SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule “Freedom” splashed down safely in the Gulf of Mexico off Florida at 5:57 p.m. (0327 IST) on Tuesday. Relevance : GS 3(Space) Mission Overview Wilmore and Williams originally launched in June 2023 on Boeing’s Starliner, intended as a short-duration test mission. The Starliner developed propulsion issues, leading to its return without crew, leaving them stranded in space. They were reassigned to NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission, which arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) in September 2023. Return to Earth The crew left the ISS 17 hours before splashdown, after farewells with fellow astronauts. The capsule endured 2,000°C temperatures during re-entry before deploying parachutes for a safe ocean landing. They were retrieved and flown to Houston for a 45-day rehabilitation program. Record-Breaking Stay Wilmore and Williams spent 286 days in space, exceeding the standard six-month ISS rotation. However, their stay ranks sixth in U.S. spaceflight records. Frank Rubio holds the U.S. record (371 days, 2023), while Valeri Polyakov (Russia) holds the global record (437 days, Mir station). Significance & Impact Highlights technical challenges in space missions, especially with new spacecraft like Boeing’s Starliner. Demonstrates the resilience of astronauts and adaptability of NASA’s mission planning. Reinforces SpaceX’s growing role in human spaceflight amid Boeing’s Starliner setbacks. Serves as a reminder of risks in long-duration space missions and the need for robust contingency planning. El Niño or La Niña? Murky pattern of temperature keeps confusion alive The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle plays a crucial role in shaping global weather patterns, particularly the Indian monsoon. However, recent anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SST) and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean have created uncertainty regarding whether 2025-26 will be an El Niño or La Niña year. This ambiguity raises concerns about the reliability of monsoon forecasts, which are critical for India’s agriculture and economy. Relevance : GS 1(Geography ) Confusion in ENSO State: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific are not following typical El Niño or La Niña patterns. Unusual cold SST anomalies in central-western Pacific and warm SST anomalies in far eastern Pacific. Historically, La Niña is associated with cold SST in the eastern Pacific, but this pattern is unclear. Implications for India’s Monsoon (2025-26): ENSO impacts only about 60% of monsoon deficit/surplus years. Uncertainty in 2025 monsoon forecasts due to mixed signals from SST and wind patterns. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may counteract the ENSO effect, as seen in 2023. Forecasting Challenges: February 2025 forecasts give conflicting signals—some models predict La Niña by fall, others indicate normal conditions, and one suggests an El Niño. The ENSO transition mode (ETM) in the Southern Hemisphere may have prevented the strong La Niña initially expected for 2024. Impact of Climate Change: Global warming is altering typical El Niño and La Niña behavior. Mid-latitude temperature changes, influenced by shifting jet streams, are affecting monsoons and pre-monsoon cyclones. Early heat waves in 2025 add another layer of uncertainty. Policy and Preparedness: India’s agricultural sector remains vulnerable to unpredictable monsoon patterns. Governments and meteorological agencies must improve forecast reliability. Need for adaptive strategies to manage climate risks, including droughts and extreme weather. Conclusion: The ENSO state remains uncertain, making monsoon forecasts challenging. While researchers continue to analyze trends, policymakers and farmers must brace for any outcome.