Content :

1. The Changing Landscape of Employment
2. Climate Change and Rural India: A Silent Displacement Crisis
3. India’s Open Ecosystems: Rethinking ‘Wastelands’
4. India’s Opportunity to Repay Green Revolution Debt
5. How is Mizoram Handling the Refugee Crisis?
6. India’s FGD Rollback: Implications of Exempting 78% of Thermal Power Plants

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The changing landscape of employment

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Core Insight:

India’s demographic dividend risks turning into a disaster as lakhs of graduates enter the job market without being job-ready, amidst rising automation and a shrinking formal job base.

Relevance : GS-3 (Indian Economy) – Issues related to employment, skill development, and job market reforms.

Alarming Statistics

Indicator	Data
Youth Share in Unemployment	83% of unemployed are youth – India Employment Report 2024 (ILO + IHD)
Formal Workforce (EPFO)	>7 crore members; 18–25 age group = 18–22% of new additions
Informal Workforce	90% of total employment remains informal
Digital Illiteracy Among Youth	– 75% can’t send email with attachment – 60% can’t copy-paste files – 90% lack basic spreadsheet skills
Job Displacement vs. Creation (2030)	– 170M new jobs to be created (14%) – 92M jobs displaced (8%) ➡ Net gain = 78M jobs (7%) – Future of Jobs Report 2025, WEF

Core Challenges

• Unemployability > Unemployment
• Only 50% of Indian graduates are job-ready – Economic Survey 2023–24
• Skill mismatch in digital, professional, and interpersonal domains

• AI and Automation Threat
• AI adoption is putting low-to-mid-level IT roles at risk
• Traditional service jobs in India may not survive next-gen tech transitions

• Job Quality Crisis
• Surge in contractual and gig employment without security or benefits
• Lack of long-term wage growth and poor financial security

• Skill Infrastructure Deficit
• Higher education and vocational institutes not aligned with job market needs
• Few formal linkages between academia and industry

Strategic Policy Recommendations

Pillar	Action Needed
Education-Industry Link	– Mandatory partnerships for colleges with industry – Accountability for placements, not just degrees
Skill-First Curriculum	– Universal presence of Idea Labs & Tinker Labs – Compulsory digital + soft skill + foreign language training at all levels
Global Skilling Strategy	– Design courses aligned with ageing workforce needs in EU, Japan, etc. – Align with initiatives like EU’s Link4Skills, tapping migration corridors
Institutional Reform	– Create Indian Education Services (IES), equivalent to IAS, to attract top talent into education leadership
Open Education Ecosystem	– Invite industry professionals to teach/mentor in institutions to bridge theory-practice divide

EPFO Data: Formalisation vs. Stability

• Rise in 18–25 age group enrolments in EPFO indicates push for formal employment.
• But unclear if these jobs are:
  • Secure
  • Well-paying
  • Long-term

Job creation ≠ job quality. The data must be paired with studies on job retention and income growth.

The Cost of Inaction

• Wasted potential: India produces millions of graduates annually, many unemployable.
• Rising frustration: Educated youth without jobs fuels social unrest, migration, and mental health issues.
• Lost opportunity: Without global skill alignment, India risks missing out on exporting talent to ageing nations.
• Vicious cycle: Lack of jobs ➝ underemployment ➝ informal work ➝ no savings ➝ no upward mobility

Conclusion

India’s employment problem is not just about creating more jobs — it’s about creating relevant, high-quality, future-proof employment.

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Climate Change and Rural India: A Silent Displacement Crisis

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Key Observation:

Climate change is no longer a future threat — it is actively transforming where and how millions of Indians live, work, and survive.

Relevance : GS-1 & GS-3 – Geography (climate impact) and Economy (migration, livelihoods).

Bundelkhand: Droughts, Heat, and Exodus

Parameter	Status
Location	13 districts in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
Climate Impact	🔻 Rainfall, 🔺 Temperature (+2 to +3.5°C by 2100)
Drought Frequency	9 droughts (Datia, 1998–2009); 8 in Lalitpur, Mahoba
Result	Massive male-dominated migration to cities like Delhi, Surat, Bengaluru

Impacts:

• Agricultural failure and indebtedness
• Occupational shift: from farming to mining & construction
• Family separation and rising vulnerability of women and children
• Erosion of village social fabric and school dropout rates

“Migration in Bundelkhand is not adaptation — it is a form of crisis-induced displacement.” – Dr. S.S. Jatav, BBAU

Charpauli, Bangladesh: Floods and Erosion

Parameter	Status
Location	Along the Jamuna river
Climate Impact	🔺 Floods & erosion due to rising river discharge
Riverbank Erosion	Left bank: -12m/year; Right bank: -52m/year (1990–2020)
Migration Pattern	Permanent displacement to Dhaka, nearby towns

Impacts:

• Entire villages vanish annually into the Jamuna
• Families move first inland, then migrate completely
• Shift to agriculture in new villages or informal jobs in cities

“Migration becomes the last-resort adaptation when resilience fails.” – Jan Freihardt, ETH Zürich

Vidarbha & Marathwada: Heat Stress and Debt Cycles

Parameter	Status
Region	Rain shadow zone of the Western Ghats
Temperature	>50°C in peak May months (Satellite data, 2024)
Rainfall	Erratic: fewer rainy days, intense bursts, long dry gaps
Livelihood Impact	Seasonal migration to sugar cane farms in Western Maharashtra & Karnataka

Cane Cutter Migrant Life:

• 4–6 month migration, hired as “koita” couples (husband: cutter, wife: stacker)
• Advance wage: ₹50,000–₹5 lakh (debt cycle begins)
• Output requirement: ₹50,000 ÷ ₹367/tonne = 136 tonnes sugar cane to cut
• Live in makeshift plastic tents, with no water, sanitation, or electricity
• Seniors (70+) now migrate due to labour shortages

“Climate change is pushing people into debt bondage and worsening intergenerational precarity.” – Ankita Bhatkhande, Asar

Scale of the Crisis

Indicator	Data
Global Climate Migrants (2022)	~20 million/year (Internal migration) – International Refugee Assistance Project
India’s Sugarcane Production (2021)	50 crore tonnes, ₹20,000+ crore revenue
Protection for Migrants	Weak; migrants face wage theft, health crises, and legal invisibility

India lacks a dedicated legal framework for climate-induced internal migration.

Adaptation or Displacement?

• Adaptation (Ideal Scenario):
• Diversified livelihoods
• Climate-resilient cropping
• Social security safety nets

• Displacement (Current Reality):
• Loss of land + livelihoods = forced migration
• Women and elderly disproportionately burdened
• Children drop out of school or face malnutrition

“Migration may appear adaptive, but for many in India, it reflects a collapse of resilience.” — Sayantan Datta

Policy Recommendations

Area	Action Needed
Legal Framework	Recognize climate migrants as a vulnerable group under national policy
Housing & Rights	Ensure safe shelters, portable social security, and labour protections
Livelihood Resilience	Invest in climate-smart agriculture, water access, and MGNREGA coverage
Data & Planning	Real-time climate–migration data to inform policy at district/state levels
Interstate Coordination	Protect rights of migrants across source and destination states

Bottom Line

• India is living through a rural climate migration crisis — slow, silent, and scattered.
• Without urgent legal and policy recognition, millions risk falling into permanent precarity.

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India’s Open Ecosystems: Rethinking ‘Wastelands’

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What Are Open Ecosystems?

Open ecosystems refer to grasslands, deserts, scrublands, savannas, and open woodlands — landscapes characterized by low tree cover but high ecological and cultural value.

• These areas naturally support sparse vegetation due to arid climates or seasonal rainfall patterns.
• Unlike forests, they are not degraded forests, but distinct biomes with unique ecological functions.

Relevance : GS-3 – Environment and Ecology; Land degradation, biodiversity, and sustainable land use.

The ‘Wasteland’ Misclassification: A Colonial Legacy

Official Label	Ecological Reality
“Wasteland” (as per Wasteland Atlas of India)	Functional ecosystems with biodiversity, soil carbon, and pastoralist activity
~55.76 million hectares (16.96% of India’s land)	Includes deserts, grasslands, scrub, coastal sand dunes
Wastelands = ‘land to be fixed’	Actually = land to be preserved and stewarded

• Policy contradiction: While private real estate glorifies open green spaces (e.g., “Savana Villas”), India’s natural open landscapes are ignored or targeted for conversion.

Why Deserts and Open Lands Matter

• Global Significance:
• Deserts cover ~33% of Earth’s land area.
• Host ancient civilizations (e.g., Indus Valley, Mesopotamia).
• Enable climate resilience through adapted flora and fauna.

• India-Specific Examples:
• Thar Desert (Rajasthan): Indigenous species like the Great Indian Bustard, caracal, desert fox.
• Banni Grasslands (Gujarat): Among Asia’s largest, now degraded by afforestation and invasive species.

Pastoralist Communities: Stewards of Open Lands

Community	Region
Dhangars	Maharashtra
Rabaris	Gujarat
Kurubas	Karnataka
Raikas	Rajasthan

• Over 13 million pastoralists in India depend on open ecosystems for seasonal grazing.
• Their mobility and grazing cycles contribute to regenerative land use, seed dispersal, and biodiversity conservation.

Afforestation on grasslands and fencing off commons disrupts both ecology and livelihoods.

Greenwashing Concerns: Tree Planting ≠ Restoration

• Risks of Monoculture Afforestation:
• Reduces native biodiversity
• Alters hydrology and groundwater
• Converts carbon-rich soil systems into carbon-poor plantation zones
• Promotes Prosopis juliflora and eucalyptus, which degrade open biomes

• Instead, Promote:
• Rotational grazing
• Natural regeneration
• Check dams & water harvesting
• Pastoralist land governance

Policy Roadmap: Recognising Open Ecosystems

Priority	Recommendation
Reclassify lands	Replace “wasteland” with “open ecosystem” in land-use maps
Protect rights	Recognize community tenure of pastoralist groups
Incentivize carbon	Reward soil carbon storage over tree carbon
Embrace traditional knowledge	Promote indigenous water and land management
Reframe global language	Change “World Day to Combat Desertification” to “World Day to Combat Land Degradation”

Bottom Line

“Deserts are not empty — they are alive, thriving, and culturally rich. Preserving them is not anti-development, but a climate-smart, justice-based environmental policy.”

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India’s Opportunity to Repay Green Revolution Debt

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From Recipient to Contributor

• India, once a major beneficiary of foreign agricultural assistance during the 1960s Green Revolution, now possesses the institutional and technological capacity to become a global contributor in agricultural R&D.
• With self-sufficiency achieved in wheat production, India is in a position to support international efforts—especially in developing countries facing similar challenges.

Relevance : GS-2 & GS-3 – International Relations (South-South cooperation) and Agriculture R&D.

Leadership in Wheat Innovation

• Indian agricultural research institutions have developed and scaled multiple high-yielding wheat varieties.
• Varieties like DBW187, DBW303, HD2967, HD3086 now dominate cultivation across millions of hectares.
• Research hubs such as IIWBR (Karnal), PAU (Ludhiana), and ICAR institutes play a leading role in this transformation.

Strategic Opportunity for India

• As global funding for agricultural research declines, India has an opportunity to:
  • Strengthen partnerships with international institutions like CIMMYT and IRRI
  • Support research on climate-resilient crops and food security in the Global South
  • Expand its soft power through agri-diplomacy and development cooperation

Key Implications

• Transitioning from aid recipient to knowledge donor improves India’s global development profile.
• Agricultural assistance programs can be an extension of India’s South-South cooperation model.
• Investment in global research ensures preparedness against future food and climate crises.

Policy Recommendations

• Create a formal International Agricultural R&D Support Mission led by Indian institutions.
• Allocate strategic funding to global wheat and rice research, especially in Africa and South Asia.
• Leverage public-private partnerships to commercialize and share India-developed crop innovations globally.

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How is Mizoram Handling the Refugee Crisis?

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Context: Refugee Influx from Myanmar

• Since February 2021, Myanmar has witnessed a military coup, triggering a civil war and ethnic conflicts.
• Over 40,000 refugees have crossed into Mizoram, especially from the Chin State of Myanmar, with recent influxes seen in Champhai district.
• The latest wave (July 2025) brought ~4,000 more refugees due to clashes between two anti-junta armed groups:
  • Chin National Defence Force (CNDF)
  • Chinland Defence Force-Hualngohm (CDF-H)

Relevance : GS-2 – Polity and Governance; refugee management, Centre-State relations, and internal security.

Why Mizoram?

• Ethnic Affinity: The refugees (Chins) share ethnic ties with Mizos; culturally and linguistically similar.
• Geographic Proximity: Chin State borders Mizoram; proximity to the conflict zones enables easier crossing.
• Humanitarian Tradition: Mizoram has historically sheltered fleeing ethnic groups from Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Manipur (Kuki-Zos).

Timeline of Refugee Movements & Policy Evolution

1. Historic Background

• 1968–2004: Free Movement Regime (FMR) allowed cross-border travel up to 16 km; it was reduced from 40 km in 2004.
• 2016: FMR regulated; further restrictions imposed.
• 2024: MHA announced FMR suspension citing security concerns.

2. Post-2021 Influx

• Massive inflow post-coup; Chin National Army lost ground to pro-democracy forces → civilians fled.
• As of July 6, 2025:
  • 3,890 Myanmar nationals recorded in Zokhawthar
  • Spread across Zokhawthar, Khawmawi, Saisihnuam

Central vs State Dynamics

Aspect	Mizoram Government	Central Government
Position	Pro-refugee, citing ethnic and humanitarian grounds	Restrictive, citing national security
Actions	Cash, relief camps, housing, refusal to evict refugees	28 crore aid, warning to stop refugee intake
Conflict	Ignored MHA order to evict refugees	Accused Mizoram of altering demographics

• Civil society and organisations like Young Mizo Association (YMA), Churches, and student bodies have provided significant ground-level support.
• Refugee management is mostly local, decentralized, and supported by donations and voluntary contributions.

Legal and Administrative Framework

• India is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol.
• No national refugee law — refugees are treated under the Foreigners Act, 1946.
• Lack of clear refugee identification and rights creates legal ambiguity.
• Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) retains control over international migration; states have limited jurisdiction.

Ground-Level Realities in Mizoram

• Displacement hubs: Champhai, Zokhawthar, and border towns have seen the highest numbers.
• Living conditions:
  • Improvised shelters, local integration, school access (in some cases), but high dependency on aid.
• Security risks:
  • Intelligence reports warn about armed groups’ presence.
  • Border militarisation may affect India-Myanmar ties.

Broader Strategic Implications

• Domestic
• Strains Centre-State relations on federal responsibilities in managing cross-border migration.
• Highlights need for refugee protection law balancing national security and humanitarian obligations.

• Regional
• Border policy inconsistency impacts ties with Myanmar, especially with changes in junta control.
• Rising refugee influx from Bangladesh (Rohingyas), Myanmar (Chins), and Manipur (Kuki-Zos) reflects worsening stability in the Eastern neighborhood.

Key Policy Recommendations

1. Codify a National Refugee Law:
   1. Define refugee status
   1. Lay down rights and responsibilities
   1. Establish standard operating procedures

• Institutional Coordination:
  • Create joint task forces between MHA and northeastern states for managing cross-border flows.

• Reinstate a Humanitarian FMR-lite:
  • Controlled, tech-monitored travel for cross-border ethnic kin during crises.

• Leverage International Aid:
  • Coordinate with UNHCR/ASEAN for refugee assistance, without compromising sovereignty

• Invest in Border State Capacities:
  • Infrastructure, healthcare, digital ID systems for refugees, and local employment schemes.

Key Numbers (as of July 2025)

Indicator	Value
Total Refugees (post-2021)	~40,000
Latest influx (July 2025)	~4,000
Myanmar nationals in Zokhawthar (Champhai)	3,890
Government relief fund	₹28 crore
Official camps with FGDs	Very few – mostly informal, community-led

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India’s FGD Rollback: Implications of Exempting 78% of Thermal Power Plants

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Context

• The Union Environment Ministry has exempted 78% of India’s 600 thermal power plant (TPP) units from installing Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) systems.
• FGD systems are critical for reducing sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, a precursor to acid rain and particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution.
• Only about 11% of thermal plants — those in high-density/population areas — are still mandated to install FGD systems.

Relevance : GS-3 – Environment and Energy; air pollution, public health, and emission standards.

What are FGDs and Why Do They Matter?

Feature	Description
Purpose	Reduces SO₂ emissions by up to 95% from coal combustion
Mechanism	Uses limestone slurry or seawater to scrub sulphur oxides from flue gas
Relevance	SO₂ contributes to PM2.5 formation, acid rain, respiratory and cardiac diseases
Global Practice	Mandatory in China, US, EU for all coal-fired plants since early 2000s

India’s Thermal Power Pollution Profile

Indicator	Value
Total TPPs	~180 (comprising 600+ units)
Share in electricity	~72% of total generation (as of 2025)
Share in SO₂ emissions	~51% of all industrial SO₂
Plants with FGD installed	Only 8% (mostly NTPC-run)
Exempted units post-policy	~468 units (78%)

Key Policy Update (July 2025)

Category	Criteria	FGD Mandate
Category A	Within 10 km of NCR or Tier-1 cities	Mandatory
Category B	Within 10 km of Critically Polluted Areas (CPAs) or Non-Attainment Cities (NACs)	Case-by-case
Category C	All others	Exempted

Result: Only ~11% (Category A) will remain under FGD norms.

Basis for Exemption: What Experts Said

The government relied on recommendations of a scientific panel led by Principal Scientific Adviser Ajay Sood:

• Claimed Indian coal has low sulphur content
• Found no major SO₂ difference in areas with or without FGDs
• Argued that sulphates suppress warming, so removing SO₂ may increase net radiative forcing

Counterarguments by Public Health & Environmental Experts

Argument	Response
“Indian coal is low in sulphur”	But still emits enough SO₂ to drive PM2.5 in hotspots
“FGDs don’t improve local air quality”	Air quality impact depends on meteorology; long-range transport of SO₂ is well documented
“Sulphates cool the planet”	True — but co-benefits of SO₂ do not outweigh public health costs (respiratory illness, strokes)
“FGDs are costly”	Health costs of SO₂ are 5x higher than installation costs (per WHO/ICMR studies)

Global Standards vs India’s Position

Country	FGD Mandate	Implementation
China	Mandatory since 2005	95%+ compliance
USA	Under Clean Air Act	Applied to >90% of coal plants
Germany	FGD since 1983	Complete compliance
India	First mandated in 2015, now diluted in 2025	78% exempted

Implications of the Decision

• Environmental:
• Higher SO₂ emissions → elevated secondary particulate matter (sulphates)
• Weakens India’s commitment to air quality improvement under NCAP
• Potential rise in acid rain impacting crops, soil, monuments

• Public Health:
• Risk of increased respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses
• Higher disease burden in rural areas near exempted plants

• Economic:
• Disincentivises green tech investment in the power sector
• Short-term relief for discoms & thermal producers, but long-term cost-shifting to health sector

• Global Commitments:
• May impact India’s COP pledges on emissions intensity
• Could weaken diplomatic stance on climate finance and clean tech if domestic credibility erodes

Way Forward: Balancing Power and Pollution

1. Reprioritise Targeted FGDs: Mandate for plants near dense populations, agricultural belts, and ecological hotspots.
2. Subsidised Technology Deployment: Viability gap funding for older plants; tie to ESG-linked financing.
3. Integrated Emissions Tracking: Mandatory online SO₂, NOx, PM reporting on public dashboard.
4. Health Cost Valuation: Incorporate externalities into tariff-setting by CERC.
5. Accelerate Renewables: Reduce dependence on coal by scaling solar-wind-battery hybrids.