Content:

1. Section 69 of the BNS is redundant
2. IMF’s lower growth projection for India for 2025-26 fiscal year
3. Parliament is supreme, Constitution does not visualise any authority above it: Dhankhar
4. IMF cuts global growth over Trump tariffs, policy uncertainty
5. AI can supercharge forecasting if it can weather some challenges

Section 69 of the BNS is redundant

Context and Legislative Background

• Section 69 Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita introduces a new standalone offence for sexual intercourse on the false promise of marriage, with lesser punishment than rape.
• Such a provision did not exist in the Indian Penal Code (IPC), though similar cases were tried under Section 375 IPC (now Section 63 BNS).

Relevance : GS 2(Judiciary , Social Justice)

Supreme Court’s Stand and Judicial Interpretation

Judicial filters already exist to prevent misuse of rape laws in cases of consensual sex later termed as rape:

• Intention Test:In Anurag Soni v. State of Chhattisgarh (2019): Unless the man never intended to marry from the start, it does not amount to rape.Nature of Relationship:In Rajnish Singh @ Soni v. State of U.P. (2025): A 15-year consensual relationship, later followed by betrayal, does not qualify as rape under false promise of marriage.Marital Status and Consent:In Abhishek Arjariya v. State of M.P. (2025): If the prosecutrix was already married, her claim of consent under misconception is invalid.

Critique of Section 69 BNS

• Section 69 Text: Targets sexual intercourse through “deceitful means” or “false promise to marry”.
• Includes “false promise of employment, promotion, or suppression of identity” in its explanation.

Redundancy and Legal Overlap

• Section 28 BNS: Defines consent, vitiated by “misconception of fact” — already covers false promise of marriage.
• Thus, rape under Section 63 BNS can already encompass sex under false promise of marriage.
• So, Section 69 duplicates existing provisions under a milder punishment — undermining the seriousness of the offence.

Constitutional and Doctrinal Issues

• No exception carved out in Section 63 for cases under Section 69 → raises constitutional conflict.
• No non-obstante clause in Section 69 → makes it susceptible to being struck down under Article 14 (equality before law).
• Introduces confusion in legal interpretation and may allow legal escape routes for genuine offenders.

Administrative Implications

• Courts already quashing false FIRs based on long-standing precedents.
• Police advised to conduct preliminary inquiries before filing charge-sheets.
• Helps in avoiding misuse of law, protects innocent men, and saves judicial resources.

Conclusion

• No change in core definitions of rape or consent in BNS.
• Section 69 BNS, being legally unnecessary and potentially unconstitutional, appears redundant and unsustainable.

IMF’s lower growth projection for India for 2025-26 fiscal year

Context : IMF’s Growth Projection

• India’s GDP growth for FY 2025–26 is projected at 6.2% by the IMF.
• This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the earlier estimate of 6.5%.
• The global growth forecast is also revised downward to 2.8%, a cut of 0.5 percentage points.

Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)

Stated Reasons for Revision

• Escalated global trade tensions have impacted investor confidence and export dynamics.
• Worsening global uncertainty, including geopolitical risks and financial market volatility.
• Tighter monetary conditions in advanced economies could be curbing capital flows and investment.

Implications for India

• Export sector vulnerability: India’s integration with global supply chains may suffer.
• Private investment slowdown: Uncertainty may delay new investments or expansion plans.
• Impact on job creation: Slower growth could restrict employment generation, especially in informal sectors.

Relative Positives

• Despite the downgrade, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies.
• Domestic demand and infrastructure push may partially offset external headwinds.
• Potential for policy response via fiscal support or targeted reforms if slowdown deepens.

Broader Global Context

• Similar downgrades for several emerging and developing economies.
• Global trade fragmentation and protectionist measures gaining ground.
• Need for multilateral cooperation to stabilize trade, finance, and supply chains.

Parliament is supreme, Constitution does not visualise any authority above it: Dhankhar

Context:

• Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar reaffirmed that the Constitution does not visualise any authority above Parliament.
• He was responding to criticisms regarding his remarks on a recent Supreme Court ruling.

Relevance : GS 2(Polity , Constitution)

Context of the Controversy

• The Supreme Court judgment (April 8, 2025) directed:
  • The President must act within 3 months on Bills passed by State Assemblies and referred by Governors.
  • Governors cannot withhold assent to Bills indefinitely.
• Dhankhar viewed this as judicial overreach and incursion into the Executive’s domain.

Key Arguments by Dhankhar

• Parliament is the supreme institution under the Constitution.
• No authority, including the Judiciary, is visualised as being above Parliament.
• Constitutional functionaries are not ornamental; their roles are substantive and rooted in public interest.

Interpretational Clash

• Supreme Court: Reinforces checks and balances, especially in ensuring executive accountability and proper assent procedures.
• Vice-President: Emphasizes Parliamentary sovereignty and primacy of elected representatives in a democracy.

Constitutional & Political Implications

• Reflects a tug-of-war between Judiciary and Legislature over boundaries of power.
• Raises concerns about separation of powers, federalism, and institutional respect.
• Could fuel debates on judicial activism vs. parliamentary supremacy.

Symbolic Language

• Dhankhar likened every citizen to an “atom in democracy”, where elections reflect atomic power — underscoring democratic legitimacy of Parliament.

IMF cuts global growth over Trump tariffs, policy uncertainty

Context:

• IMF has cut global growth projections in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
• Triggered by:
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 import tariff policy.
  • Surging policy uncertainty worldwide.

Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)

Global Growth Projections

• 2025: Global output projected at 2.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from January 2025 forecast.
• 2026: Forecast at 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from earlier.
• Marked as a “critical juncture” for the global economy.

Impact on India

• 2025–26 fiscal growth forecast at 6.2%:
  • 0.3% lower than January estimate.
  • Supported by rural private consumption, despite external challenges.
• 2026–27 forecast: 6.3%.
• Inflation estimates for India:
  • 4.2% (FY25–26), 4.1% (FY26–27).

Structural Global Shifts

• IMF Chief Economist: “We are entering a new era.”
  • Global economic system of last 80 years is being reset.
  • U.S. effective tariff rates now at 100-year highs.
• Tariff hikes + policy unpredictability are shaping the outlook.

Risk Assessment

• Risk of a global downturn has nearly doubled:
  • From 17% to 30%.
  • IMF does not forecast a full-blown recession but notes elevated risk.
• Growth reductions expected across all regions in 2025–26.

Inflationary Pressures

• Disinflation process stalled due to:
  • Trade disruptions.
  • Uncertainty over global supply chains and investment decisions.
• Global inflation revised up by 0.1%.

Conclusion

• The IMF signals economic fragbility, warning that trade wars and unpredictability could derail recovery.
• India remains relatively resilient, but exposed to external shocks due to its trade linkages.

AI can supercharge forecasting if it can weather some challenges

Core Idea

• AI and ML are increasingly being explored to improve weather forecasting in India, especially for extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and torrential rainfall.
• Traditional models rely on physics equations; AI/ML models start with data and learn patterns without explicit programming.
• Two major challenges: data availability and shortage of interdisciplinary human resources.

Relevance : GS 3(Technology and Disaster Management)

How AI/ML Differs from Traditional Weather Models

• Traditional Models: Use physical laws (fluid dynamics, thermodynamics); require supercomputers.
• AI/ML Models: Learn relationships directly from large datasets; can uncover hidden links and non-linear patterns.

Recent Indian Efforts

• ‘Mission Mausam’ (Sep 2024): ₹2,000 crore allocation to improve AI-based forecasting tools.
• AI/ML Centre (Ministry of Earth Sciences): Focus on short-range rainfall forecasting, urban weather datasets, and nowcasting using Doppler radar data.
• Research Initiatives: IIT-Delhi and IIIT-Delhi ML model predicted monsoon rainfall with 61.9% success rate (2002–2022), better than traditional models.

Major Challenges

Data Limitations

• Requires high-resolution, high-quality datasets (often inconsistent due to sensor errors).
• Remote areas lack adequate sensor coverage, affecting model accuracy.
• Disagreement: Some believe India now has sufficient data (10x increase); others say quality/standardisation is still lacking.

Human Resource Gap

• Lack of experts fluent in both AI/ML and climate science.
• Climate science straddles multiple disciplines, making it hard to build integrated expertise.
• Need for collaborative institutions focused exclusively on AI-Climate research.

Interpretability & Trust Issues

• AI models are often black boxes — difficult to understand how/why they made a forecast.
• Traditional models offer transparency via physics equations and error correction methods.
• Calls for hybrid models combining AI/ML with physics-based approaches.

Global Perspective

• 2024 Heidelberg Forum: ML has succeeded in weather forecasting, but climate science remains challenging due to long-term unpredictability and atmospheric chaos.
• Future climate models need to generalize to a “warmer world” — hard for ML trained on present data.

AI/ML for Extreme Events

• AI holds promise in predicting extreme weather: heatwaves, cyclones, cloudbursts.
• February 2025 Nature Communications paper highlights AI’s role in risk communication, attribution studies.
• But warns of trustworthiness, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification concerns.

Way Forward

• Develop region-specific models for India’s diverse geography.
• Promote interdisciplinary research and AI-literacy among climate scientists.
• Need for critical mass of trained professionals and improved data accessibility.
• Government initiatives must focus on institutional collaboration, data infrastructure, and hybrid model development.