Content

1. New GDP Series Upgrades FY26 Growth to 7.6% in Second Advance Estimates
2. Supreme Court Bans NCERT Class 8 Textbook: Contempt Powers and Academic Freedom Debate
3. Tribal Affairs Ministry to Revamp Forest Rights Act Implementation Mechanism
4. Meghalaya Strengthens Meningococcal Disease Surveillance After Agniveer Deaths
5. Indian Navy Boosts Anti-Submarine Capability with Commissioning of INS Nirdeshak
6. Pakistan–Afghanistan Escalation: Taliban Tensions and Regional Security Implications
7. SOE 2026: India’s Life Expectancy Trends and Post-Pandemic Demographic Implications

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New GDP series upgrades FY26 growth to 7.6% in second advance estimates

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A. Issue in Brief

• India’s real GDP growth for FY 2025-26 projected at 7.6% (Second Advance Estimates) — higher than 7.4% (First Advance Estimates).
• Base year updated to 2022-23 (earlier 2011-12) → improved representativeness and sectoral granularity.
• Growth revisions:
  • 2023-24 revised down to 7.2% (from 9.2%)
  • 2024-25 revised up to 7.1% (from 6.5%)
• Nominal GDP revised downward for 2023–26 → impacts fiscal ratios (Fiscal Deficit/GDP, Debt/GDP).
• Sectoral pattern (FY26):
  • Secondary: 9.5% (Manufacturing 12.5%)
  • Services: 8.9%
  • Primary: 2.8% (Agriculture 2.5%)
• Q3 FY26 growth: 7.8% (Q2: 8.4%; Q1: 6.7%) → moderate but stable momentum.

Relevance

GS Paper III – Economy 

• National Income Accounting (GDP, GVA, Base Year Revision).
• Real vs Nominal GDP implications.
• Sectoral growth patterns (Primary–Secondary–Tertiary).
• Structural transformation & Lewis Model.
• Fiscal deficit & Debt/GDP ratio (FRBM framework).
• Capex-led vs consumption-led growth debate.
• Manufacturing push under PLI.
• Rural distress & agricultural stagnation.

B. Static Background

1. National Income Estimation Framework

• Compiled by Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) under National Statistical Office (NSO).
• Based on UN System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
• Base year revision ensures:
  • Structural shift capture (digital economy, formalization)
  • Improved deflators and sector weights

2. GDP Concepts

• Real GDP: Adjusted for inflation.
• Nominal GDP: Current prices; determines fiscal ratios.
• Advance Estimates: Released before fiscal year ends; based on partial-year data.

3. Constitutional-Fiscal Link

• FRBM Act: Targets fiscal deficit and debt as % of GDP → Nominal GDP revision directly affects compliance trajectory.

C. Key Dimensions

1. Structural Sectoral Shift

Sector	FY25 Growth	FY26 Growth	Structural Insight
Primary	5%	2.8%	Rural slowdown risk
Manufacturing	8.3%	12.5%	PLI, capex, exports
Construction	7.1%	6.9%	Public capex stabilizing
Services	8.3%	8.9%	Domestic demand + IT

Inference: Growth increasingly manufacturing and services-driven; agriculture losing relative dynamism.

2. Economic Implications

(i) Manufacturing Acceleration

• 12.5% growth suggests:
  • PLI scheme traction
  • Supply chain diversification (China+1 strategy)
  • Strong corporate balance sheets
• Potential boost to exports and job creation.

(ii) Agricultural Slowdown (2.5%)

• Implications:
  • Rural demand compression
  • MSP-fiscal burden pressures
  • Inflation risk if supply shocks occur
• Agriculture employs ~45% workforce → disproportionate welfare impact.

(iii) Services Dominance

• Double-digit growth in:
  • Trade, hotels, transport (10.3%)
  • Finance, IT, real estate (10%)
• Reflects:
  • Urban consumption recovery
  • Digital economy expansion
  • Credit growth cycle

3. Fiscal & Macroeconomic Impact

Nominal GDP Downward Revision

• Raises effective:
  • Fiscal deficit ratio
  • Debt-to-GDP ratio
• Could complicate glide path to 4.5% fiscal deficit target (FY26).

Investment vs Consumption

• Manufacturing + construction suggest capex-led growth.
• Agriculture slowdown may reduce mass consumption multiplier.

4. Social Dimension

• Rural-Urban divergence risk.
• Inequality concerns (K-shaped growth).
• Job elasticity question:
  • Manufacturing growth must translate into labour-intensive employment.
• Skilling urgency under Skill India Mission.

5. External Sector Angle

• High services growth supports current account stability.
• Manufacturing boost can reduce trade deficit if export competitive.
• Vulnerability: Global slowdown, oil prices.

6. Governance & Statistical Credibility

• Base year revision improves transparency.
• Need for:
  • High-frequency employment data
  • Better informal sector capture
• Enhances investor confidence if methodology robust.

D. Critical Analysis

1. Growth Quality vs Growth Quantity

• 7.6% strong in global context (IMF global avg ~3%).
• But concerns:
  • Agricultural stagnation
  • Regional imbalances
  • Limited wage growth

2. Manufacturing Momentum — Sustainable?

• Requires:
  • Stable power supply
  • Logistics cost reduction (currently ~14% of GDP)
  • Labour reform effectiveness

3. Fiscal Arithmetic Risk

• Lower nominal GDP artificially inflates deficit ratios.
• Could pressure government to cut capital expenditure.

4. Structural Transformation Gap

• Agriculture share in GDP ~15% but workforce ~45%.
• Slow agri growth delays Lewis-type structural shift.

E. Way Forward

1. Strengthen Rural Growth

• Irrigation expansion
• Crop diversification
• Agri value chains and food processing
• Direct income support reform (DBT rationalization)

2. Sustain Manufacturing Momentum

• Expand PLI to labour-intensive sectors (textiles, footwear).
• MSME credit deepening via digital lending.
• Reduce logistics cost to 8–9% of GDP (National Logistics Policy).

3. Fiscal Prudence with Growth

• Protect capital expenditure.
• Broaden tax base via GST compliance.
• Strategic asset monetisation.

4. Employment-Centric Strategy

• Align manufacturing push with employment elasticity.
• Skill reorientation toward EVs, semiconductors, AI.

5. Statistical Strengthening

• Periodic base revision every 5 years.
• Greater disclosure on deflators and informal sector estimation.

F. Prelims Pointers

• Base year currently: 2022-23.
• Advance Estimates released in January (1st) and February (2nd).
• Real vs Nominal GDP distinction.
• Manufacturing classified under Secondary Sector.
• GDP compiled by NSO under MoSPI.

Practice Mains Question (15 Marks)

• “India’s recent GDP estimates indicate strong headline growth but reveal emerging structural imbalances across sectors.” Examine the quality and sustainability of India’s growth trajectory.(250 Words)

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NCERT asks public to return Class 8 textbook, delete posts

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A. Issue in Brief

• The Supreme Court imposed a blanket ban and seizure order on an NCERT Class 8 Social Science textbook, invoking suo motu criminal contempt, alleging content undermined judicial credibility and constitutional institutions.
• The Court directed immediate withdrawal of all physical and digital copies, sought a compliance report, and initiated proceedings under the Contempt of Courts Act, 1971 for “scandalising the court.”
• The controversy raises structural concerns regarding judicial overreach, limits of academic freedom, proportionality in restrictions under Article 19(2), and institutional balance under the separation of powers doctrine.

Relevance

GS Paper II – Polity & Governance

• Articles 129 & 215 (Contempt powers).
• Contempt of Courts Act, 1971.
• Article 19(1)(a) vs 19(2).
• Separation of Powers.
• Judicial activism vs restraint.
• Education in Concurrent List (Entry 25).

B. Constitutional & Legal Background

• Article 129 and Article 215 designate the Supreme Court and High Courts as Courts of Record, empowering them to punish for contempt independent of statutory codification.
• Under Section 2(c), Contempt of Courts Act, 1971, criminal contempt includes publications that “scandalise or lower the authority of the court,” a phrase criticised for vagueness and overbreadth.
• Article 19(1)(a) guarantees freedom of speech, while Article 19(2) permits reasonable restrictions including contempt; restrictions must satisfy the proportionality test evolved in modern constitutional jurisprudence.
• The 274th Law Commission Report (2018) recommended retaining contempt powers but acknowledged global shifts toward narrowing the “scandalising” offence to protect democratic criticism.

C. Governance & Institutional Dimension

• NCERT, an autonomous body under the Ministry of Education, develops curriculum frameworks aligned with NEP 2020, raising concerns about executive-academic autonomy vis-à-vis judicial intervention.
• Education falls under Entry 25, Concurrent List, implying shared legislative competence; direct judicial content control risks blurring institutional boundaries between judiciary and executive.
• Blanket seizure orders may generate a bureaucratic chilling effect, discouraging curricular innovation and critical engagement with constitutional institutions in future textbooks.

D. Social & Ethical Dimension 

• Democracies require tolerance of reasoned institutional critique; excessive contempt invocation may signal intolerance, affecting public perception of judicial confidence and constitutional maturity.
• Ethical dilemma: safeguarding institutional dignity versus nurturing critical constitutional literacy among students; balance required under principles of constitutional morality.
• Chilling academic discourse undermines deliberative democracy, where institutions strengthen legitimacy through openness rather than insulation from criticism.

E. Separation of Powers & Judicial Restraint

• The doctrine of separation of powers mandates functional boundaries; direct textbook bans risk judicial encroachment into executive policymaking and curriculum design.
• Global comparative trend: the United Kingdom abolished “scandalising the court” in 2013, recognising reputational harm should not override democratic free speech values.
• Judicial legitimacy flows from public trust, not coercive enforcement; excessive reliance on contempt may paradoxically weaken institutional authority.

F. Critical Analysis

• A blanket prohibition and seizure appears disproportionate when lesser remedies—clarifications, revised editions, or expert review panels—could have addressed alleged inaccuracies.
• The phrase “scandalising the court” lacks objective definitional limits, risking subjective interpretation and potential misuse against academic or journalistic critique.
• Frequent suo motu contempt actions may institutionalise judicial hyper-activism, disturbing equilibrium envisioned in constitutional design.
• However, protecting minors from distorted constitutional understanding remains a legitimate state interest, requiring careful balancing rather than absolutism.

G. Way Forward

• Narrow interpretation of “scandalising” consistent with democratic standards; apply structured proportionality analysis before imposing extreme remedies like seizure or publication bans.
• Establish independent academic review committees to assess disputed content, ensuring evidence-based corrections rather than coercive suppression.
• Parliament may revisit the Contempt of Courts Act, 1971 to codify clearer definitional limits aligned with global best practices.
• Encourage judicial articulation emphasising tolerance of fair criticism, reinforcing confidence in constitutional democracy.

H. Prelims Pointers

• Articles 129 & 215: Contempt powers of Supreme Court and High Courts.
• Criminal contempt includes “scandalising the court.”
• Education: Entry 25, Concurrent List.
• Contempt of Courts Act enacted in 1971; amended in 2006 to allow truth as defence.

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “The expansive use of contempt powers, though intended to protect judicial authority, may inadvertently undermine academic freedom and democratic discourse.” Critically examine.

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Tribal Affairs Ministry set to revamp forest rights cells, form ‘one-stop’ coordinating units

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A. Issue in Brief

• Nearly 20 years after enactment, implementation of the Forest Rights Act (2006) remains uneven, with the Union Tribal Affairs Ministry flagging slow claim disposal and poor institutional coordination across States.
• The Ministry has directed creation of PMU-like monitoring units in States to improve tracking of Individual Forest Rights (IFR) and Community Forest Rights (CFR) claims and expedite approvals.
• Recent review meetings highlighted persistent issues such as record-keeping gaps, digitisation delays, and inter-departmental conflicts, undermining the Act’s transformative objectives.

Relevance

GS Paper II – Governance

• Implementation challenges in welfare legislation.
• Centre–State coordination (Concurrent List Entry 17A).
• Gram Sabha empowerment.
• Administrative capacity gaps.

GS Paper III – Environment

• Community Forest Rights (CFR).
• Conservation vs livelihood debate.
• Forest Conservation Act interface.

B. Constitutional & Legal Background – Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006

• The Forest Rights Act, 2006 was enacted under Parliament’s powers over Forests (Entry 17A, Concurrent List) and guided by Article 46, aiming to remedy the “historical injustice” faced by forest-dwelling communities.
• The Act recognises rights of Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (OTFDs) over land, Minor Forest Produce (MFP), grazing grounds, habitat, and community forest resources.
• It provides for Individual Forest Rights (IFR) over cultivated forest land (up to 4 hectares, without conferring new land) and Community Forest Rights (CFR) over shared traditional resources.
• Eligibility mandates STs to primarily reside in forest areas, while OTFDs must prove continuous residence for three generations (75 years) prior to 13 December 2005.
• Implementation follows a three-tier statutory structure: Gram Sabha (initiating authority) → Sub-Divisional Level Committee → District Level Committee (final approval authority).
• The Act empowers Gram Sabhas to protect wildlife, forests, and biodiversity, integrating community tenure with sustainable conservation objectives.
• In Wildlife First v. Union of India (2019), the Supreme Court flagged concerns over large-scale claim rejections and emphasised procedural safeguards in FRA implementation.

C. Governance & Administrative Dimension

• Ministry proposes Project Monitoring Units (PMUs) to strengthen data analytics, verification processes, and digital dashboards for real-time tracking of claims.
• States have been asked to deploy dedicated officials at district level to support FRA implementation and improve coordination with forest departments.
• However, creation of “separate cells” risks administrative fragmentation and duplication if not integrated into existing district structures.
• Digitisation of forest rights records remains incomplete, affecting transparency and long-term tenure security.

D. Economic Dimension

• Recognition of CFR rights enhances access to Minor Forest Produce (MFP), contributing to tribal incomes; MFP sector estimated at over ₹20,000 crore annually.
• Secure land tenure improves access to institutional credit and agricultural investment, reducing vulnerability to displacement.
• Delays in rights recognition restrict livelihood diversification, especially in forest-dependent regions of central and eastern India.

E. Social & Ethical Dimension

• FRA intended to correct “historical injustice” caused by colonial forest laws like the Indian Forest Act, 1927.
• Weak implementation perpetuates marginalisation of STs (~8.6% of population, Census 2011) and OTFDs.
• Ethical tension between conservation-centric governance and community-based forest management approaches.
• Gram Sabha empowerment under FRA strengthens grassroots democracy and participatory governance.

F. Environmental Dimension

• Evidence suggests Community Forest Resource (CFR) management can enhance biodiversity conservation through participatory stewardship.
• However, forest bureaucracy often resists CFR recognition, citing risks to ecological integrity.
• Integrating FRA with Forest Conservation Act, 1980 and CAMPA frameworks remains administratively complex.

G. Data & Implementation Gaps

• As of latest data, over 45 lakh claims filed, with significant inter-State variation in approval rates.
• High rejection rates in some States due to procedural lapses, lack of evidence documentation, and inadequate awareness.
• CFR recognition remains disproportionately low compared to IFR, despite transformative potential.

H. Critical Analysis

• Administrative inertia and forest department resistance dilute FRA’s rights-based character, reducing it to a welfare-style land allocation scheme.
• Creation of PMUs may improve monitoring, but structural issues lie in capacity deficits and attitudinal resistance.
• Inadequate digitisation and poor grievance redressal weaken accountability and transparency mechanisms.
• Balancing conservation with community rights requires integrated landscape-level governance rather than adversarial departmental approaches.

I. Way Forward

• Mandate time-bound disposal of claims with transparent online dashboards accessible at Gram Sabha level.
• Strengthen capacity building of Gram Sabhas and ensure legal literacy among tribal communities.
• Integrate FRA data with National Forest Inventory and GIS platforms to avoid land classification conflicts.
• Encourage convergence with MSP for MFP scheme to enhance livelihood gains from recognised rights.
• Institutionalise third-party social audits to evaluate district-level FRA performance.

J. Prelims Pointers

• FRA enacted in 2006; rules amended in 2012 to strengthen Gram Sabha role.
• Applies to STs and OTFDs residing in forests for at least three generations (75 years) in case of OTFDs.
• Recognises Individual and Community Forest Rights, including habitat rights for Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs).
• Forests in Concurrent List (42nd Constitutional Amendment, 1976).

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “Despite its progressive intent, the Forest Rights Act, 2006 continues to face significant implementation challenges.” Analyse the institutional and governance barriers and suggest reforms.

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Meghalaya steps up meningococcal disease surveillance

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A. Issue in Brief

• Two Agniveer trainees died of suspected meningococcal bacterial infection at a military training centre in Shillong, prompting a State-level health advisory and active outbreak investigation.
• Over 30 trainees quarantined, with epidemiological surveillance, contact tracing, and laboratory review initiated by the District Surveillance Unit, East Khasi Hills.
• Meghalaya government advised citizens to avoid crowded places, follow health protocols, and assured containment under standard outbreak response procedures.

Relevance

GS Paper II – Governance

• Public health as State List subject.
• Role of:
  • Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme
• National Health Policy 2017.

B. Medical & Epidemiological Background

• Caused by Neisseria meningitidis, a gram-negative bacterium transmitted via respiratory droplets, especially in crowded settings like hostels, barracks, or schools.
• Can cause meningitis (infection of brain membranes) or meningococcemia (bloodstream infection), with case fatality rates ranging from 10–15%, higher without timely antibiotics.
• Incubation period typically 2–10 days; close contacts require chemoprophylaxis and monitoring as per WHO outbreak guidelines.
• Vaccines available (MenACWY, MenB), but not part of India’s Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) except for special risk groups.

C. Governance & Public Health Dimension

• Managed under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), which mandates rapid reporting, contact tracing, and district-level epidemiological investigation.
• Advisory reflects adherence to standard outbreak response protocols, including isolation, contact identification, and laboratory confirmation.
• Military-civilian coordination critical in cantonment outbreaks due to high-density living arrangements.
• Demonstrates importance of District Surveillance Units (DSUs) in decentralised public health response.

D. Constitutional & Administrative Context

• Public health and sanitation fall under State List (Entry 6, List II), giving Meghalaya primary responsibility for outbreak containment.
• Centre may provide support under Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 or Disaster Management Act, 2005, if escalation occurs.
• Outbreak preparedness aligns with obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) for disease surveillance and reporting.

E. Social & Ethical Dimension

• Risk of panic and stigma in small communities; requires transparent communication and responsible media reporting.
• Ethical obligation to ensure timely prophylaxis for close contacts and equitable access to treatment.
• Balancing preventive advisories with avoidance of unnecessary economic or social disruption.

F. Bio-preparedness Angle

• Biosecurity protocols must integrate routine vaccination, early symptom reporting, and surveillance in defence establishments.

G. Data & Public Health Capacity

• India’s IDSP covers all districts; however, public health expenditure remains around ~2.1% of GDP, below global averages.
• Northeast region faces healthcare access challenges due to terrain and infrastructure constraints.
• Early detection and no new suspected cases indicate functional surveillance containment at local level.

H. Critical Analysis

• Outbreak underscores persistent vulnerability in closed institutional settings, similar to past meningitis outbreaks in educational hostels and defence units.
• Absence of routine meningococcal vaccination in UIP limits herd immunity in high-risk clusters.
• Surveillance effectiveness depends on laboratory capacity and rapid antibiotic administration.
• Risk communication must prevent misinformation while reinforcing preventive behaviour.

I. Way Forward

• Consider targeted meningococcal vaccination strategy for high-density institutions (military academies, hostels).
• Strengthen laboratory infrastructure in Northeast under National Health Mission (NHM).
• Institutionalise periodic infection-control audits in defence training centres.
• Expand digital disease surveillance through integrated health data platforms.
• Increase public health expenditure toward 2.5% of GDP target (National Health Policy 2017).

J. Prelims Pointers

• Neisseria meningitidis causes meningococcal meningitis.
• Transmitted via respiratory droplets.
• Not universally covered under India’s UIP.
• Public health is a State List subject.
• IDSP functions under MoHFW.

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “Localized infectious disease outbreaks test the robustness of India’s public health surveillance and response mechanisms.” Examine in the context of recent meningococcal cases in Meghalaya.

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Navy boosts anti-submarine capability with INS Anjadip

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A. Issue in Brief

• The Indian Navy commissioned INS Nirdeshak, the fourth indigenously built anti-submarine warfare shallow water craft (ASW-SWC) at Chennai, strengthening coastal defence and littoral surveillance architecture.
• The vessel, 77 metres long, is designed for operations in coastal and shallow waters, reflecting India’s focus on countering submarine threats in near-shore maritime zones.
• Built at Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE), Kolkata, the platform underscores India’s progress under Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defence shipbuilding.

Relevance

GS Paper III – Internal Security / Defence

B. Strategic & Security Context

• ASW-SWC vessels are critical amid expanding submarine presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), including Chinese PLA Navy deployments under “dual-use” maritime strategy.
• Enhances Navy’s capability to detect and neutralise diesel-electric submarines, especially in chokepoints and congested littoral waters.
• Complements India’s maritime doctrine of “sea control in near seas and sea denial in extended neighbourhood.”
• Supports security in vital Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) carrying nearly 90% of India’s trade by volume.

C. Technological & Operational Features

• Equipped with indigenous sonar systems, lightweight torpedoes, and sub-surface surveillance technologies for high-precision underwater threat detection.
• Integrates advanced combat management systems for real-time data processing and tactical response.
• Capable of surveillance, interdiction, search-and-rescue (SAR), and low-intensity maritime operations.
• Designed for high manoeuvrability in shallow coastal environments where larger destroyers or frigates face operational constraints.

D. Economic & Industrial Dimension

• Constructed under India’s indigenous shipbuilding programme, contributing to domestic defence manufacturing ecosystem and MSME supplier networks.
• Aligns with Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020, prioritising “Buy (Indian-IDDM)” category.
• Enhances technological spillovers in marine engineering, electronics, and indigenous propulsion systems.
• Defence shipbuilding contributes to employment generation and strategic industrial capacity building.

E. Governance & Policy Linkages

• Supports Maritime India Vision 2030 and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine.
• Strengthens coastal security post 26/11 Mumbai attacks, where shallow-water monitoring vulnerabilities were exposed.
• Enhances synergy with Indian Coast Guard in layered maritime security framework.
• Reflects emphasis on indigenisation under Make in India (Defence) and reduction of import dependency.

F. Environmental & Disaster Response Role

• Equipped to undertake Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations in cyclone-prone eastern seaboard.
• Coastal vessels can assist in evacuation, relief logistics, and maritime search-and-rescue missions.
• Dual-use capability enhances climate resilience response capacity in Bay of Bengal region.

G. Critical Analysis

• ASW-SWC vessels strengthen coastal defence but must integrate seamlessly with P-8I maritime patrol aircraft and submarine fleet for layered deterrence.
• Maritime threats evolving toward hybrid warfare; requires integration of cyber and underwater drone countermeasures.
• Sustained budgetary allocation necessary to maintain naval modernisation amid continental security pressures.

H. Way Forward

• Expand indigenous development of advanced sonar arrays and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).
• Strengthen real-time maritime domain awareness through integration with Information Fusion Centre – Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR).
• Increase defence R&D expenditure beyond current levels (~0.7% of GDP overall defence outlay for R&D component).
• Enhance joint exercises with QUAD partners to build interoperability in ASW operations.
• Promote export potential of ASW-SWC platforms to friendly IOR nations.

I. Prelims Pointers

• INS Nirdeshak: Fourth ASW Shallow Water Craft.
• Built by GRSE, Kolkata.
• Designed for anti-submarine operations in shallow coastal waters.
• Part of India’s indigenous defence shipbuilding push.
• IOR is central to India’s maritime security strategy.

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “Indigenous anti-submarine warfare capabilities are central to India’s maritime security strategy in the Indian Ocean Region.” Examine in light of recent naval inductions.

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Pakistan–Afghanistan Tensions: Taliban, Terror & Regional Security Implications

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A. Issue in Brief

• Pakistan launched airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, targeting alleged Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) camps after cross-border militant attacks killed Pakistani security personnel.
• Taliban regime condemned strikes as violation of sovereignty, escalating tensions and raising concerns of potential “open war” rhetoric from Islamabad.
• Cross-border exchanges highlight persistent instability along the Durand Line, reviving concerns over regional terrorism spillovers and strategic recalibration.

Relevance

GS Paper II – International Relations

• Durand Line dispute.
• Taliban–TTP distinction.
• Article 2(4) & Article 51 (UN Charter).
• Strategic depth doctrine.
• Regional geopolitics (CPEC, SCO).

B. Historical & Geopolitical Background

• The Durand Line (1893) demarcates the Pakistan–Afghanistan boundary but remains contested by Afghan regimes, including the current Taliban administration.
• Pakistan supported Taliban factions historically for “strategic depth” against India; post-2021 Taliban takeover altered Islamabad’s leverage calculus.
• The TTP, ideologically aligned with Afghan Taliban but organisationally distinct, seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state.
• Afghanistan remains geopolitically central, connecting Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia, amplifying instability spillover risks.

C. Security & Strategic Dimension

• TTP attacks in Pakistan surged after Taliban takeover in 2021, with militants allegedly operating from Afghan sanctuaries.
• Pakistan accuses Kabul of harbouring militants; Taliban denies formal support but has limited control over decentralized armed groups.
• Escalation risks include:
  • Cross-border retaliation
  • Refugee flows (Afghan refugees in Pakistan exceed 1.3 million registered)
  • Radicalisation spillover
• Nuclear-armed Pakistan facing internal insurgency adds strategic volatility.

D. International Relations & Regional Dynamics

• China concerned over security of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects; instability threatens Belt and Road investments.
• U.S. maintains limited over-the-horizon counter-terror capability post-2021 withdrawal.
• India monitors developments closely due to past Afghanistan engagement and counter-terror concerns.

E. Governance & Internal Political Context

• Pakistan faces simultaneous economic crisis (low forex reserves, IMF dependency) and political instability.
• Civil-military imbalance complicates coherent Afghanistan policy.
• Escalatory military posturing may serve domestic political signalling amid internal unrest.

F. Economic Dimension

• Bilateral trade disrupted by border closures at Torkham and Chaman crossings, affecting regional commerce.
• Afghanistan dependent on Pakistani transit routes for external trade; tensions exacerbate humanitarian fragility.
• Instability undermines regional connectivity initiatives such as CASA-1000 and TAPI pipeline.

G. Social & Humanitarian Dimension

• Afghanistan faces ongoing humanitarian crisis; over 28 million people require assistance (UN estimates 2024).
• Border skirmishes risk displacement and refugee pressures on Pakistan and neighbouring states.
• Radical militant narratives may exploit conflict, fuelling recruitment.

H. Way Forward

• Establish structured bilateral counter-terror dialogue mechanism between Islamabad and Kabul.
• Strengthen border management with biometric systems and coordinated patrols along the Durand Line.
• Encourage regional framework under Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for counter-terror cooperation.
• Promote economic engagement and development assistance to reduce militant recruitment incentives.
• International mediation via UN channels to prevent escalation into sustained conflict.

I. Prelims Pointers

• Durand Line (1893) divides Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• TTP distinct from Afghan Taliban; operates primarily against Pakistani state.
• ISIS-K active in Afghanistan.
• Afghanistan not formally recognised by most countries post-2021 Taliban takeover.

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “Pakistan’s evolving tensions with the Taliban regime highlight the unintended consequences of strategic depth policies.” Critically examine the regional security implications.

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SOE 2026: India’s Life Expectancy Trajectory – Pandemic Shock & Demographic Implications

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A. Issue in Brief

• India’s life expectancy at birth (LEB) rose steadily from 49.7 years (early 1970s) to 70 years (2016–20), reflecting five decades of sustained demographic transition and public health improvement.
• The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted this trajectory; LEB declined marginally to 69.8 years (2017–21), marking the first reversal in decades.
• Decline visible across geographies: Urban LEB fell from 73.2 to 72.9 years, while rural LEB declined from 68.6 to 68.5 years, coinciding with excess mortality during 2020–21.

Relevance

GS Paper I – Society & Demography

• Demographic transition.
• Rural–Urban disparity.
• Gender life expectancy differences.

GS Paper II – Governance

• National Health Policy 2017.
• Sample Registration System (SRS).
• Public health as State subject.

B. Conceptual & Methodological Background

• Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) measures average years a newborn is expected to live, assuming current age-specific death rates (ASDRs) persist throughout life.
• Estimates derived from Sample Registration System (SRS), India’s large-scale demographic survey under the Registrar General of India (MHA).
• India uses MORTPAK 4 software, developed by the United Nations, to generate abridged life tables using five-year averaged ASDRs.
• Rural-urban and gender disaggregation enhances statistical reliability and policy targeting precision.

C. Demographic & Epidemiological Dimension

• Long-term rise reflects progress in maternal health, immunisation, sanitation, and communicable disease control.
• Pandemic-induced reversal linked to increased mortality in 2020–21, especially among elderly and comorbid populations.
• Even a 0.2-year decline is demographically significant in large populations, signalling systemic stress in health infrastructure.
• Indicates vulnerability of health gains to external shocks and emerging infectious diseases.

D. Governance & Public Health Dimension

• Highlights importance of resilient health systems under National Health Mission (NHM) and Ayushman Bharat.
• Reinforces need to meet National Health Policy 2017 target of increasing life expectancy to 70 by 2025.
• Pandemic exposed gaps in critical care capacity, oxygen infrastructure, and health workforce distribution.
• Strengthening Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) essential for early mortality trend detection.

E. Economic Dimension

• Life expectancy closely linked to human capital formation and labour productivity.
• Temporary mortality shock may alter dependency ratios, pension liabilities, and actuarial projections.
• Health shocks increase out-of-pocket expenditure, affecting household savings and consumption.
• Long-term demographic dividend sustainability depends on restoring mortality decline trajectory.

F. Social & Inequality Dimension

• Rural LEB remains ~4 years lower than urban, reflecting disparities in healthcare access, nutrition, and sanitation.
• Gender differentials persist, though female life expectancy generally exceeds male due to biological and behavioural factors.
• Pandemic disproportionately affected vulnerable groups, widening socio-economic health inequities.
• Regional disparities likely sharper across BIMARU and aspirational districts.

G. International & Comparative Context

• Global life expectancy declined during COVID-19; many high-income countries experienced 1–2 year reductions, larger than India’s 0.2-year fall.
• India’s relatively smaller decline may reflect younger demographic structure and undercount debates.
• Aligns with SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) targets on mortality reduction.

H. Critical Analysis

• Modest numerical decline masks broader structural stress on health systems and data reporting mechanisms.
• Reliance on five-year averages may smooth short-term shocks, underrepresenting acute mortality spikes.
• Need to integrate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems for more real-time mortality tracking.
• Recovery trajectory dependent on sustained public health financing beyond emergency response phase.

I. Way Forward

• Increase public health expenditure toward 2.5% of GDP target (NHP 2017) to build resilient primary and tertiary care systems.
• Strengthen CRVS digitisation and mortality audits for real-time life expectancy monitoring.
• Expand geriatric healthcare and non-communicable disease screening under Ayushman Bharat – Health and Wellness Centres.
• Integrate pandemic preparedness into routine health planning with stockpiling and rapid-response protocols.
• Address rural-urban health gaps via telemedicine, mobile medical units, and specialist outreach.

J. Prelims Pointers

• Life expectancy at birth based on age-specific mortality rates.
• Derived from SRS data under Registrar General of India.
• MORTPAK 4 used for abridged life table estimation.
• Public health is a State List subject (Entry 6, List II).
• National Health Policy 2017 targets life expectancy of 70 years by 2025.

Mains Practice Question (15 Marks)

• “Life expectancy trends reflect the overall health and socio-economic resilience of a nation.” Analyse India’s recent trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 disruption.