Content

1. SIR 2.0 to Begin in 12 States, UTs — Covering 51 Crore Voters
2. Is the Dogri Language Losing Resonance in India?
3. India’s Per Capita Income to Cross USD 5,000 by 2031
4. Kerala Reverses Policy to Implement the PM-SHRI Schools Scheme
5. Twin Cyclonic Threats in the North Indian Ocean Region

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SIR 2.0 to begin in 12 States, U.T.s, cover 51 crore voters

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Why in News?

• The Election Commission of India (ECI) has launched the Second Phase of Special Intensive Revision (SIR 2.0) of electoral rolls across 12 States and Union Territories, covering 51 crore voters.
• The revision includes poll-bound States such as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, and Puducherry, ahead of their 2026 Assembly elections.
• Assam is excluded for now, given its citizenship verification process under Supreme Court supervision.

Relevance:

• GS-2 (Polity & Governance): Electoral reforms, voter list integrity, transparency in elections, ECI’s constitutional mandate under Article 324.
• GS-2 (Government Schemes): Electoral Roll Management (ERONet, NVSP), Aadhaar–voter linkage (Section 23A, RPA 1950).
• GS-3 (Technology in Governance): Use of digital systems for voter verification and inclusion.

Basic Context

• Election Commission of India (ECI):
  • Constitutional body under Article 324 of the Constitution.
  • Responsible for superintendence, direction, and control of elections to Parliament, State Legislatures, and offices of President & Vice-President.
• Electoral Roll:
  • The official list of all eligible voters in a constituency.
  • Maintained under the Representation of the People Act (RPA), 1950.
  • Continuous updating is essential to remove duplicates, include new voters, and ensure error-free elections.
• Special Intensive Revision (SIR):
  • Periodic mass verification and updating of voter rolls to maintain accuracy.
  • Conducted before major elections or to implement voter-linked reforms (like EPIC–Aadhaar linkage, gender ratio correction, etc.).

Key Features of SIR 2.0 (2025)

• Coverage: 12 States/UTs including Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Puducherry, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep.
• Scale: Covers ~51 crore voters, one of the largest voter verification exercises globally.
• Timeline: Rolls to be frozen after the revision begins, typically from midnight of announcement day, as per EC norms.
• Assam Exception:
  • Separate notification to be issued later.
  • Citizenship verification under Supreme Court-monitored NRC process ongoing.

Administrative & Political Context

• ECI Objective:
  • Clean, inclusive, and updated electoral rolls.
  • Removal of deceased/duplicate voters.
  • Enrollment of first-time voters (18+ as of Jan 1, 2026).
  • Address gender and urban-rural voter disparities.
• Political Concerns:
  • Trinamool Congress (West Bengal) and DMK (Tamil Nadu) expressed concerns about potential misuse or selective targeting during revision.
  • EC reiterated transparency and adherence to RPA norms.

Legal & Constitutional Basis

Provision	Relevance
Article 324	Empowers ECI for conduct and supervision of elections.
RPA, 1950 (Sections 14–23)	Deals with preparation and revision of electoral rolls.
RPA, 1951	Governs conduct of elections, corrupt practices, and disqualification.
Article 326	Guarantees adult suffrage (18 years and above).
Delimitation Act, 2002	Ensures constituency boundaries are based on latest census data (though frozen till 2026).

Data Significance

• India’s total electorate (2024): ~97 crore voters.
• SIR 2.0 coverage: 51 crore → covers over 50% of total voters.
• First-time voters: Estimated 1.5–2 crore additions expected.
• Gender ratio correction: Female-to-male voter ratio in some States below 940:1000, ECI aims for parity.

Institutional Mechanisms

• Booth Level Officers (BLOs): Local officials verifying voter details door-to-door.
• ERONet (Electoral Roll Management System): Digital platform ensuring uniformity and real-time updates.
• Voter Helpline App / NVSP Portal: Allow citizens to check and update details online.
• Aadhaar-linkage (under Section 23A, RPA 1950): Voluntary linkage to prevent duplication.

Reform and Integrity Focus

• De-duplication drive: Using Aadhaar and demographic data to eliminate multiple entries.
• Gender and youth inclusion: Focus on urban youth (lowest registration rates).
• Voter migration tracking: Pilot project to track internal migration using digital voter IDs.
• Transparency Mechanisms: Political parties given access to draft rolls for verification.

Challenges

• Data Privacy Concerns: Linking Aadhaar with voter rolls raises surveillance fears.
• Urban Apathetic Voters: High non-registration rates in metros.
• Political Allegations: Accusations of bias or selective deletions during revision.
• Administrative Coordination: Synchronizing across 12 State Election Departments and multiple BLOs.

Keywords Explained

Term	Explanation
Electoral Roll Freezing	Period during which no addition/deletion is allowed; usually before elections.
Booth Level Officer (BLO)	Field-level official verifying voter data at the polling station level.
ERONet	Centralized software system integrating all State election databases.
EPIC	Electors Photo Identity Card – official voter ID issued by ECI.
Adult Suffrage	Right of all citizens aged 18 and above to vote, regardless of gender, caste, or wealth.

Comparative Perspective

Country	Practice	Key Feature
India	Continuous roll revision (annual + SIR)	Door-to-door verification + online update
USA	State-level roll maintenance	Decentralized; prone to purges
UK	Annual canvass	Central voter registration office
Australia	Compulsory registration	Automatic enrollment via tax records

Way Forward

• Digital Integration: AI-based tools to detect duplicates and deceased voters.
• Awareness Campaigns: “My Vote, My Identity” drives in schools/colleges.
• Voter Inclusion Index: To measure gender, age, and region-based inclusion rates.
• Transparency Measures: Publish anonymized deletion and addition data publicly.
• Data Protection: Strict adherence to DPDP Act, 2023 for Aadhaar-linked voter data.

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Is the Dogri language losing resonance in India?

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 Why in News

• UNESCO (2024 report): India tops the global list of countries with the maximum number of endangered dialects.
• Dogri, spoken in the Jammu region, faces a sharp decline in usage despite being an official language of J&K (since 2020) and part of the Eighth Schedule (since 2003).
• Concern raised by linguists like D.G. Rao (former Director, Central Institute of Indian Languages): India lost over 220 languages in the last 50 years.

Relevance

• GS-1 (Culture): Language as a component of India’s intangible cultural heritage.
• GS-2 (Governance): Policy implementation gaps in linguistic inclusion.
• GS-3 (Social Issues): Impact of globalization and migration on cultural identity)

Basic Context

• Dogri Language:
  • Belongs to the Indo-Aryan family (subgroup: Western Pahari).
  • Spoken mainly in Jammu, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and northern Pakistan.
  • Recognized under Eighth Schedule of the Constitution (92nd Amendment, 2003).
  • Official status in J&K under the Official Languages Act, 2020, alongside Urdu, Hindi, Kashmiri, and English.

Current Issue: Linguistic Extinction Trend

• Globalisation & Migration:
  • People prioritise economically dominant languages (Hindi, English) for mobility and jobs.
  • Regional languages lose intergenerational transmission.
• Cultural Assimilation:
  • Younger speakers identify more with national/global culture than regional identity.
• Digital Neglect:
  • Dogri lacks digital presence (content creation, social media, or e-learning resources).

Survey Insights (Jammu Region)

• Sample Size: 130 respondents, across 20 locations.
• Method: Random sampling (intervals of 3–4 households).

Findings:

• 48%: Government has failed to give adequate policy support.
• 43.2%: Dogri has little career or employment relevance.
• Generational Divide:
  • Elderly (>60 years): Fluent speakers.
  • Youth (<30 years): Understand but rarely use Dogri in public/education.

Dimensions

Policy Dimension

• Delayed Recognition: Dogri added to Eighth Schedule only in 2003, long after languages like Konkani (1992).
• Implementation Deficit: Despite official status, Dogri not widely used in administration or education.
• Lack of Institutional Support:
  • Insufficient funding for Dogri literature, teacher training, and curriculum integration.
  • Weak implementation of the National Policy on Languages (draft form).

Socio-Economic Dimension

• Urban Aspirations: Urban youth prefer Hindi/English for employability.
• Migration: Outmigration to metros erodes community language use.
• Media Dominance: Bollywood and digital media reinforce Hindi over Dogri.

Generational Dimension

• Language Shift: Shift from “mother-tongue use” to bilingualism or language abandonment.
• Cultural Disconnect: Folklore, songs, oral traditions in Dogri are vanishing due to lack of transmission.

Keywords Explained

Term	Explanation
Eighth Schedule	List of 22 languages recognized by the Indian Constitution (Article 344(1) & 351) for promotion and representation.
Endangered Language	A language at risk of falling out of use because speakers shift to other dominant languages.
Linguistic Diversity Index (LDI)	Measures probability that two randomly selected individuals speak different mother tongues; India’s LDI ≈ 0.93 (high).
Language Shift	Gradual replacement of one language by another within a speech community.
Revitalization Policy	Measures to preserve and promote endangered languages through education, documentation, and media presence.

Constitutional & Institutional Framework

• Article 29: Protection of linguistic and cultural rights of minorities.
• Article 350A: Instruction in the mother tongue at the primary stage.
• Article 351: Duty of the Union to promote the spread of Hindi without interfering with other languages.
• Central Institute of Indian Languages (CIIL): Apex body for research and preservation.
• Scheme for Protection and Preservation of Endangered Languages (SPPEL): Launched by Ministry of Education to document endangered tongues.

Challenges Specific to Dogri

• Low inclusion in school curriculum (except a few optional papers in J&K).
• Negligible administrative use despite official recognition.
• Declining literary publication and print media presence.
• Weak community initiatives for cultural revival.

Comparative Insight

Region	Language	Revival Strategy	Outcome
Northeast India	Bodo	Added to Eighth Schedule + language academies + textbooks	Revival successful
South India	Tulu	Active digital movement (#TuluOfficialLanguage)	Awareness growing
Jammu (Dogri)	Dogri	Constitutional + official recognition only (no education/media base)	Decline continues

Way Forward

• Educational Integration:
  • Make Dogri mandatory in primary schools in Jammu region.
  • Develop digital Dogri learning platforms.
• Administrative Implementation:
  • Ensure use of Dogri in local governance, signage, and official documents.
• Cultural Revitalization:
  • Encourage Dogri theatre, cinema, and literature festivals.
  • Promote Dogri on Doordarshan, AIR, and digital platforms.
• Documentation & Research:
  • Expand SPPEL coverage with academic partnerships (CIIL, JNU, University of Jammu).

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India’s per capita income to cross $5,000 by 2031

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Why in News ?

• A Franklin Templeton research report (2025) projects that India’s per capita income (PCI) will exceed USD 5,000 by 2031, nearly doubling from USD 2,729 (2023).
• This will trigger a structural shift in consumption, marking India’s entry into a mass affluent economy.

Relevance

• GS-3 (Economy): Growth models, structural transformation, inequality, behavioral economics.
• GS-2 (Governance): Welfare design, inclusive policy frameworks.

Key Data & Projections

Indicator	2023	2031 (Projected)
Per Capita Income (USD)	2,729	5,242
Share of Upper-Middle Income Households	11% (2010)	24% (2035)
Non-essential Spending Share	1950s: <20%	Now: ~60%
Premium Product Growth	2–3× faster than mass market
Top 20% Households	Hold ~85% of savings, drive consumption

Relevant Keywords

• Per Capita Income (PCI):
  • Average income earned per person in a given year (GDP ÷ population).
  • Indicator of standard of living and economic welfare (GS-3: Growth & Development).
• Consumption-Led Growth:
  • Economic growth primarily driven by domestic demand rather than exports/investment.
  • India’s consumption ≈ 60% of GDP — higher than China (~38%).
• Premiumization:
  • Consumers shifting from mass-market to higher-value (premium) products.
  • Reflects rising disposable income and urban aspirations.
• Affluence Elasticity of Demand:
  • As incomes rise, demand for non-essential goods grows disproportionately faster.
• Middle-Income Trap:
  • When growth slows after reaching middle-income status due to lack of innovation or productivity gains.
  • India’s challenge: avoid this trap through structural reforms and skills development.
• Demographic Dividend:
  • Economic growth potential from a young working-age population.
  • India’s median age ≈ 28 years, offering a long window of consumption-driven expansion.
• Discretionary Expenditure:
  • Spending on non-essential items — leisure, electronics, personal care — linked to consumer confidence.

Structural Transformation Trends

• Rising Disposable Income: Urban and semi-urban households witnessing real income growth.
• Shift to Services: Growth in finance, health, education, recreation, and digital economy.
• Digital Consumption: E-commerce, UPI payments, and BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) reshaping access.
• Urbanization: 40% population projected to be urban by 2035 — concentrated consumption hubs.
• Financialization of Savings:
  • Shift from physical assets (gold, real estate) → financial assets (mutual funds, equities).

Economic & Policy Implications

• Positive Multiplier Effect:
  • Rising consumption fuels production, job creation, and tax revenues.
• Inclusive Growth Challenge:
  • Need to ensure that rural and informal sectors also share income gains.
• Fiscal Implications:
  • Higher incomes widen the tax base, improving fiscal space.
• Inflationary Pressures:
  • Greater discretionary spending can elevate core inflation.
• Environmental Costs:
  • Expansion of consumption must align with green growth strategies (LiFE Mission, circular economy).

Behavioural Shift

• Aspirational Economy:
  • Middle class driving demand for better housing, education, and healthcare.
• Consumer Confidence:
  • Indicates economic optimism; linked to job stability and real wage growth.
• Cultural Convergence:
  • Small towns adopting metro consumption patterns → “Tier-2 Urban Boom”.

Global Context

• Comparative Perspective:
  • India at USD 5,000 ≈ China in 2008;
  • Suggests a decade-lagged but similar trajectory in consumption growth.
• India’s Global Ranking (IMF 2025):
  • Per capita income rank ~136 globally but fastest among major economies.
• Potential Market Size:
  • India projected to become 3rd largest consumer market by 2035, after US & China.

Challenges & Concerns

• Income Inequality:
  • Gini coefficient around 35–37; top 10% own ~65% of national wealth.
• Jobless Growth Risk:
  • Rising income without commensurate employment generation.
• Rural Distress:
  • Consumption growth remains urban-heavy.
• Supply Bottlenecks:
  • Infrastructure, logistics, and energy gaps can limit consumption scalability.

Way Forward

• Boost Rural Incomes: Strengthen agriculture, MSMEs, and rural employment.
• Skill-Based Growth: Align workforce with formal-sector opportunities.
• Sustainability: Promote green consumption, recycling, and LiFE initiatives.
• Digital Financial Inclusion: Deepen UPI and credit access for lower-income groups.
• Balanced Fiscal Policy: Use consumption growth to enhance public investment and social equity.

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PM-SHRI Schools Scheme and Kerala’s Policy Reversal

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Why in News ?

• Kerala’s LDF government (CPI-M led) has decided to implement the PM-SHRI Schools Scheme, reversing its two-year opposition.
• This has political and governance implications, highlighting tensions between Centre–State relations, NEP 2020 adoption, and federal financial incentives.

Relevance

• GS-2 (Governance): Centre–State relations, cooperative federalism, education policy reforms.
• GS-2 (Social Justice): School quality improvement, equitable access, NEP 2020 implementation.

Background of PM-SHRI Scheme

• Launched: September 2022
• Full Form: Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising India
• Aim: Develop 14,500 model schools as NEP 2020 exemplars across India.
• Coverage: Includes Central, State, and local government schools (like KVs, NVs, and state-run schools).
• Funding Pattern:
  • 60:40 (Centre:State) for general states.
  • 90:10 for NE & Himalayan states; 100% for UTs.
• Nodal Ministry: Ministry of Education, Department of School Education and Literacy.

Core Objectives

• Demonstrate NEP 2020’s vision of holistic and multidisciplinary education.
• Integrate vocational training, art, ICT, and multilingual pedagogy.
• Establish School Quality Assessment Framework (SQAF) to evaluate and improve learning outcomes.
• Foster environment-friendly, inclusive, and digitally equipped learning environments.

Reasons for Policy Reversal

• Financial Pressure:
  • Kerala faced reduced Samagra Shiksha allocations since non-participation in PM-SHRI led to funding exclusion.
  • In FY 2024–25, no funds were received under Samagra Shiksha; partial release in FY 2023–24 (~₹115 crore).
• Pragmatic Adjustment:
  • Implementing PM-SHRI ensures access to central funds (~₹150 crore annually).
  • Aligns with federal fiscal reality rather than ideological rigidity.
• Administrative Efficiency:
  • Integration with existing state education infrastructure under Samagra Shiksha makes implementation smoother.

National Context — Other States

• Agreed: Delhi (AAP), Punjab, West Bengal, and now Kerala.
• Holding Out: Tamil Nadu and earlier West Bengal cited NEP-related concerns.
• Trend: Gradual convergence of opposition-ruled states towards implementation for fiscal and developmental reasons.

Policy Implications

• Centre–State Federalism:
  • Reflects a shift towards “cooperative pragmatism”—states aligning with centrally funded schemes despite ideological reservations.
• Education Governance:
  • Shows how financial design (conditional funding) influences policy compliance.
• Implementation Model:
  • Use of SQAF for performance-linked disbursal introduces outcome-based governance in school education.
• Political Optics:
  • “PM” branding raises questions about decentralized recognition in joint schemes.

Criticisms and Challenges

• Federal Concerns: Central “branding” seen as undermining state ownership.
• NEP Alignment Issues: Kerala yet to fully endorse NEP 2020 — may create curricular friction.
• Equity Challenge: Risk that better-performing schools benefit disproportionately.
• Administrative Load: Monitoring transformation via SQAF requires strong data infrastructure and human resources.

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Twin Cyclonic Threats in the North Indian Ocean Region

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Why in News ?

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported two simultaneous cyclonic systems developing on either side of India —
  • Cyclone Montha in the Bay of Bengal,
  • and a persistent depression in the Arabian Sea.
• Such twin cyclonic formations are rare but indicate a hyperactive North Indian Ocean phase.
• Cyclone Montha is expected to make landfall near Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh) on October 28, 2025, while the Arabian Sea system is moving towards Gujarat.

Relevance:

• GS-1 (Geography): Tropical cyclones – formation, classification, and regional patterns (Bay of Bengal vs Arabian Sea).
• GS-3 (Environment): Climate change impact on cyclone intensity and frequency (IPCC AR6 linkage).
• GS-3 (Disaster Management): Role of IMD, NDMA, NCRMP, and early warning systems.

Meteorological Context

• Formation dates:
  • Bay of Bengal system formed October 24, intensified rapidly into Cyclone Montha by October 26.
  • Arabian Sea depression formed on October 22 — has not intensified or dissipated.
• Movement patterns:
  • Cyclone Montha: Moving NNW at ~18 km/hr, currently ~520 km ESE of Chennai.
  • Arabian Sea depression: Highly erratic track — NW → NE → N → W → S → N again; now drifting towards Gujarat coast.
• Wind speeds (IMD forecast):
  • Sustained: 90–100 km/hr
  • Gusts: Up to 110 km/hr
  • Classified as a Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS).
• Expected impact:
  • Storm surge: ~1 metre above astronomical tide, threatening low-lying areas of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (Puducherry).
  • Rainfall: Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.

Technical & Climatic Analysis

• Faster-than-expected intensification due to:
  • High sea surface temperature (SST): ~30–31°C in Bay of Bengal.
  • Strong convection and latent heat release in the mid–upper troposphere.
  • Low vertical wind shear enabling organized circulation.
• Twin cyclones phenomenon:
  • Known as “Basin Dipole Activity”, where simultaneous low-pressure systems form in both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
  • Typically arises from enhanced Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity and Indian Ocean warm pool anomalies.
• Climatic context:
  • October–November is the post-monsoon cyclone season, contributing 25–30% of annual cyclonic activity in the North Indian Ocean.
  • Bay of Bengal accounts for ~80% of cyclones in this basin; Arabian Sea for the remaining 20%.

Comparative Dynamics

Feature	Cyclone Montha (Bay of Bengal)	Arabian Sea Depression
Formation Date	October 24, 2025	October 22, 2025
Status	Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS)	Depression
Wind Speed	90–110 km/hr	30–40 km/hr
Landfall Forecast	Near Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh)	Moving towards Gujarat coast
SST Influence	30–31°C	29–30°C
IMD Alert	Red alert for East Coast	No official alert yet

Environmental & Socioeconomic Implications

• Risk to coastal infrastructure: High wind + storm surge → potential damage to ports, power lines, and fishing harbours.
• Agricultural impact: Possible crop loss in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Telangana, especially in paddy and horticulture zones.
• Marine hazards: Disruption of shipping routes in both Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.
• Humanitarian preparedness: NDRF and state disaster management authorities placed on high alert.

Scientific and Policy Significance

• IMD’s Early Warning System:
  • Use of INSAT-3D/3DR, GFS, and ECMWF data for real-time tracking.
  • Demonstrates improved predictive accuracy under the National Monsoon Mission.
• Climate linkage:
  • Strengthening evidence of warming-induced cyclone intensification in the North Indian Ocean.
  • Aligns with IPCC AR6 finding — increase in rapid intensification events since 1990s.
• Policy relevance:
  • Supports India’s National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) under NDMA.
  • Reinforces need for urban flood resilience and coastal infrastructure hardening under PM Gati Shakti and Blue Economy Vision 2047.

Conclusion

• The twin cyclonic systems — Montha in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea depression — represent a critical climate–weather intersection.While Cyclone Montha is a near-term threat to the east coast, the western depression underscores persistent oceanic heat anomalies and shifting monsoonal dynamics.
• This episode highlights the growing complexity of India’s cyclonic climatology, demanding integrated early-warning systems, coastal adaptation measures, and regional cooperation in disaster risk reduction.

Static Revision

Definition and Classification

• Cyclone: Rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.

• Types (based on wind speed – IMD classification):

	Wind Speed (km/hr)	Example
Low Pressure Area	<31	Monsoon lows
Depression (D)	31–49	Monsoon depressions
Deep Depression (DD)	50–61	Pre-cyclone phase
Cyclonic Storm (CS)	62–88	Cyclone Sitrang (2022)
Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS)	89–117	Cyclone Montha (2025)
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS)	118–165	Cyclone Tauktae (2021)
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS)	166–220	Cyclone Amphan (2020)
Super Cyclonic Storm (SuCS)	≥221	Odisha Super Cyclone (1999)

Structure of a Tropical Cyclone

• Eye: Calm center with descending air and clear skies.
• Eye Wall: Ring of towering cumulonimbus clouds with strongest winds and rainfall.
• Spiral Rainbands: Bands of clouds and thunderstorms spiraling towards the center.
• Energy Source: Latent heat released by condensation over warm ocean waters (≥26.5°C).

Conditions Favourable for Cyclone Formation

1. Warm sea surface temperature (≥26.5°C) up to 60 m depth.
2. Coriolis force (absent near Equator → cyclones form between 5°–15° N/S).
3. High humidity in the lower–mid troposphere.
4. Atmospheric instability promoting convection.
5. Low vertical wind shear (<10 m/s).
6. Pre-existing low-pressure disturbance or intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) perturbation.

North Indian Ocean (NIO) Cyclone Basin

• Extent: Between 45°E–100°E longitude, including Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS).
• Seasonal Peaks:
  • Pre-monsoon: April–June
  • Post-monsoon: October–December (more intense)
• Cyclone frequency (IMD average 1891–2020):
  • Bay of Bengal: ~5.5 cyclones/year (~80% of total NIO cyclones)
  • Arabian Sea: ~1.5 cyclones/year (~20%)
• Recent trend: Frequency in Arabian Sea increasing due to rapid warming; BoB remains dominant in intensity.

Reasons for Bay of Bengal’s Higher Cyclonic Activity

• Warmer SSTs (average 29–31°C).
• Abundant moisture from rivers and monsoon outflow.
• Shallow sea and high latent heat flux.
• Remnant low-pressure systems from Pacific crossing over via Myanmar.
• Weak vertical wind shear during transition seasons.
• Favorable Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase more frequent.

Arabian Sea Cyclones — Emerging Concern

• Earlier: Cooler waters and stronger wind shear inhibited cyclones.
• Now (post-2000): Warming trend of +1.2°C/decade; conducive for more VSCS (Tauktae, Mekunu, Vayu, Biparjoy).
• Driven by:
  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases.
  • Anthropogenic warming of Western Indian Ocean.
  • Reduced aerosol loading increasing solar absorption.

Naming of Cyclones

• Initiated in 2004 by WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones.
• Member countries: 13 (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Oman, UAE, Yemen, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia).
• Names are pre-determined and rotated in lists — next name after Montha will be from Myanmar’s contribution.

Indian Meteorological Institutions & Monitoring

• Nodal Agency: India Meteorological Department (IMD) – Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), New Delhi.
• Other key institutions:
  • National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
  • Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS)
  • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
  • National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP)
• Technology used: INSAT-3D/3DR, Doppler weather radars, GFS, ECMWF, and satellite-based SST data.