Content

1. India to be 3rd largest economy: PM, weeks after Trump’s swipe
2. India–Japan Summit Outcomes
3. Ice Age-era dragonfly (Crocothemis erythraea) in the Western Ghats
4. China-India trade ties, US tariffs, and economic implications
5. Cashless Bail in the US and India
6. Daruma Doll, presented to PM Modi in Japan

India to be 3rd largest economy: PM, weeks after Trump’s swipe

Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)

Basics

• Event: PM Modi at the India-Japan Economic Forum in Tokyo declared that India will soon become the 3rd largest economy in the world.
• Japanese Commitment:
  • ¥10 trillion (~$65 bn) private investment target in India over the next decade.
  • Over $40 bn already invested; $13 bn in last two years alone.
  • JBIC: India is the most “promising” destination.
  • JETRO: 80% of Japanese companies want to expand in India; 75% already profitable.
• PM Modi’s Pitch: India is a springboard to the Global South.
• Trump’s Swipe (July 31, 2025):
  • Criticised India for high tariffs and Russian crude imports.
  • Imposed penalty tariffs (50%) on India.
  • Called India’s economy “dead”.
  • India termed the tariffs “unreasonable”.

India–Japan Summit Outcomes

• 13 outcomes including:
  • India-Japan AI Initiative (collaboration in emerging technologies).
  • Economic Security Initiative (supply chain resilience in pharma, minerals, new tech).
  • SME Forum launched (business cooperation at grassroots level).
  • Joint Credit Mechanism for green energy projects.
  • Security & mineral resource cooperation.
  • People-to-people exchange: 5 lakh people in total (incl. 50k Indian skilled/semi-skilled workers to Japan in 5 years).

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

Economic Dimension

• India is currently the 5th largest economy; projections (IMF, World Bank) place it at 3rd by 2027–28 after U.S. and China.
• Japanese investment builds long-term capital inflow and signals global investor confidence.
• India as “springboard to Global South” highlights its role as a hub for accessing emerging markets.
• Counter-narrative to Trump’s criticism: India presents itself as dynamic, growing, and investor-friendly.

Strategic & Geopolitical Dimension

• Japan–India convergence:
  • Supply chain resilience to reduce overdependence on China.
  • Energy security through joint financing in green energy & minerals.
  • Security cooperation strengthens Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Balancing Act: India faces U.S. tariff friction while deepening ties with Japan – shows diversification of strategic/economic partners.
• People-to-people exchange → skill mobility enhances labour-market synergy and strengthens soft power.

Global Economic Positioning

• By linking its growth to Global South markets, India positions itself as a bridge between developed and developing nations.
• Japanese investments align with India’s Make in India, Digital India, and Green Energy missions.
• The narrative of “capital multiplies in India” is designed to boost global investor sentiment.

Challenges Ahead

• Tariff War with U.S. could hit exports and worsen trade deficit.
• Currency pressures (rupee volatility) may dampen some benefits of FDI.
• Maintaining ease of doing business and policy stability will be critical to sustain Japanese and other foreign investments.
• India must navigate triangular relations: U.S. (tariff disputes), Russia (oil imports), Japan (strategic partner).

Ice Age-era dragonfly (Crocothemis erythraea) in the Western Ghats:

Basics

• Species: Crocothemis erythraea (scarlet dragonfly).
• Genus in India: Only two known species –
  • Crocothemis servilia → common in lowland regions.
  • Crocothemis erythraea → found in high-altitude habitats (Europe, Asia, Himalayas, and now Western Ghats).
• Rediscovery: Confirmed in the southern Western Ghats (Kerala, Munnar high ranges).
• Confusion: Previously misidentified as C. servilia due to morphological similarities.

Relevance : GS 3(Environment and Ecology)

Background

• 2018: First photographic record of a suspected C. erythraea specimen in Munnar (Kerala).
• 2019–2023: Multiple expeditions conducted to verify presence.
• 2021: Initially included in Kerala’s odonata monograph but later removed due to skepticism.
• 2023–24: Detailed study published in the International Journal of Odonatology reconfirmed its presence.

Scientific Significance

• Ice Age Colonisation:
  • Species colonised southern India during the Pleistocene Ice Age.
  • Cooler conditions allowed temperate fauna to extend southward into Western Ghats.
• Refugial Population: Western Ghats acted as a refuge for Ice Age species, preserving biodiversity.
• Biogeography Insight: Provides evidence of historical climatic shifts and species migration patterns.

Ecological Insights

• C. servilia: Common in lowland ponds, wetlands, agricultural fields.
• C. erythraea: Prefers high-altitude ecosystems (Western Ghats, Himalayas, temperate Asia/Europe).
• Western Ghats = climatic island supporting both tropical and temperate species.

Conservation Importance

• Western Ghats: UNESCO World Heritage Site, global biodiversity hotspot.
• Rediscovery highlights the importance of continuous faunal surveys.
• High-altitude species may be climate-sensitive → vulnerable to global warming.
• Monitoring needed to prevent habitat loss from plantations, tourism, and climate change.

Research Contribution

• Led by Kalesh Sadasivan (study’s lead author).
• Published in International Journal of Odonatology.
• Confirms co-existence of both Crocothemis species in India for the first time.

Comprehensive Takeaway

• Rediscovery corrects earlier misidentification and adds to India’s odonate diversity.
• Shows Western Ghats’ role as a climatic refuge since the Ice Age.
• Strengthens argument for climate-linked species distribution studies.
• Reinforces need for long-term monitoring and conservation of high-altitude ecosystems in India.

China-India trade ties, US tariffs, and economic implications:

• Context:
  • US doubled tariffs on Indian exports (up to 50%).
  • India–China trade relations under scrutiny amid rising Chinese imports and India’s attempts to reduce dependence.
  • PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to meet at the SCO summit.
• India’s Position:
  • India pulled out of RCEP (2019), fearing Chinese dominance in trade.
  • Banned Chinese apps, restricted FDI from China after border clashes (Galwan, 2020).
  • Despite restrictions, imports from China continue to surge.
• US Factor:
  • Trump’s tariff wars affected both India and China.
  • US tariffs on Brazil and India (50% steel, 30% aluminum) prompted rethinking of alliances.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Indian Economy)

India’s Growing Dependence on Chinese Imports

• Data (Chart 1):
  • 2014–15: Imports from China ~ $60 bn; Exports ~ $12 bn → trade deficit ~$48 bn.
  • 2024–25: Imports from China ~ $113 bn; Exports ~ $14 bn → trade deficit ~$99 bn.
• Key Drivers:
  • Machinery, electronics, pharma raw materials, solar equipment.
  • India’s inability to build alternative supply chains.
• Problem: India’s exports to China remain stagnant while imports surged, worsening dependence.

China’s Strength in Manufacturing (Chart 2, 3 & 4)

• China vs World:
  • Manufactures ~31% of world’s output (highest globally).
  • US ~16%, India only ~3%.
• Gross Production Share:
  • China: 35% of global share; India: 3%.
• Value Added Share:
  • China: 29% global share; India: 3%.
• Implication: China’s dominance in global manufacturing creates structural imbalance, making India vulnerable.

India’s Sectoral Growth (Table)

• CAGR (2019–20 onwards):
  • Agriculture: 4.7%
  • Industry: 4.4%
  • Manufacturing: 4.3%
  • Services: 5.4%
• Observation: Services lead growth, but manufacturing lags, limiting India’s capacity to compete with China.

Structural Weakness in India

• Exports: India lags in machinery, electronics, high-value manufacturing.
• Imports: Reliance on China for intermediate goods continues.
• Deficit: India’s trade deficit with China exceeds $100 bn annually.
• Outcome: Manufacturing bottlenecks prevent India from scaling globally competitive industries.

China’s Strategy & Leverage

• Global Manufacturing Hub: Supplies low-cost products across sectors.
• Alternative to US/EU Markets: China using India and Global South as outlets during Western sanctions.
• Geo-strategic Pressure: Trade dependence overlaps with border tensions → dual vulnerability for India.

India’s Alternatives

• Nearshoring & Friend-shoring:
  • Attract Western companies seeking non-China supply chains (esp. post-COVID).
  • Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia emerging as alternatives; India struggles due to regulatory, infrastructure gaps.
• PLI Schemes (Production Linked Incentives): Attempt to boost domestic manufacturing in electronics, semiconductors, textiles, etc.
• Strengthening Domestic Market: Need to expand capacity in key industries (electronics, pharma, renewables).

China vs India: Contrasting Roles

• China: Seen as systemic rival by US/EU; but retains dominance in global manufacturing.
• India: Positioned as alternative partner but lacks scale and competitiveness.
• Challenge: India risks being “overwhelmed” by Chinese imports unless structural reforms succeed.

China is not India’s Natural Partner

• Political Mistrust: Border tensions (Galwan, Arunachal incursions).
• China–Pakistan Axis: CPEC, Pakistan military backing → security risk for India.
• Democracy vs Authoritarianism: Systemic divergence in governance, rules, transparency.
• Upshot: Partnership difficult beyond transactional trade.

The Upshot

• Structural Challenge: India’s dependence on Chinese imports is deep and growing.
• Strategic Implication:
  • India risks economic vulnerability + trade imbalance → potential national security issue.
• Way Forward:
  • Strengthen manufacturing base.
  • Diversify imports via Japan, Korea, EU, ASEAN.
  • Deepen supply chain resilience with domestic reforms + foreign investment.

Cashless Bail in the US and India:

Basics

• Bail Concept: A legal provision ensuring an accused does not remain in custody during trial, provided they do not abscond or tamper with evidence.
• Types of Bail:
  • Cash bail – Accused deposits money to secure release.
  • Bond/Personal bond – Release on personal surety, promise, or recognisance without cash.
  • Surety bond – Another person guarantees bail conditions.
• Primary Concern of Courts: Prevent flight risk, tampering with evidence, or influencing witnesses.

Relevance : GS 2(Judiciary – Bails)

Cashless Bail in the US

• Trump’s Executive Order (2020): Targeted jurisdictions with cashless bail, citing it led to more crime and repeated offences.
• Reality:
  • Cash bail often burdens poor people disproportionately.
  • Minor offences can still lead to jail if unable to pay bail.
  • Example: Kalief Browder, accused of stealing a backpack at 16, spent 3 years in jail (unable to pay $3000 bail); later committed suicide.
• Criticism of Cash Bail:
  • Discriminatory towards economically weaker sections.
  • Leads to over-crowding of jails.
  • Creates inequality – rich offenders can easily pay, poor remain jailed.

Bail in India

• Legal Framework: Chapter 35 of Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS) 2023; previously CrPC, 1973.
• Two Main Forms:
  • Bond – Accused signs bond assuring court of appearance. Sureties may also guarantee.
  • Bail Bond – Accused (or surety) deposits cash/property as security.
• Systemic Issues in India:
  • Many undertrials remain in jail despite being granted bail, as they cannot furnish surety or pay small amounts.
  • Example: Supreme Court highlighted cases where accused remained jailed for failing to pay bail as low as ₹5,000.
  • Law Commission (268th Report, 2017): Cash bail system violates “constitutional ethos”.

Problems with Current Bail System

• US:
  • Perpetuates inequality between rich and poor.
  • Doesn’t reduce crime significantly as claimed by proponents.
• India:
  • Undertrial population extremely high (over 70% of prison inmates).
  • Bail process delayed due to lack of legal awareness and resources.
  • Bail conditions (surety, bond) often discriminatory against poor.
  • Frequent non-compliance despite SC guidelines.

Judicial Interventions in India

• Supreme Court (2023): Directed lower courts to avoid unnecessary pre-trial detentions due to inability to furnish surety.
• District Legal Services Authority (DLSA): Directed to provide legal aid, verify accused’s background, and ensure bail implementation.
• Legal Aid Services: Encouraged to assist accused unable to meet bail requirements.

Need for Reform

• Shift from Monetary Bail: Move towards personal recognisance bonds and non-monetary conditions.
• Standardization: Bail assessment should be based on risk of flight, not wealth.
• Human Rights Approach: Prolonged detention without trial undermines Article 21 (Right to Life and Personal Liberty).
• Systemic Solutions:
  • Simplify bail procedures.
  • Introduce pre-trial assessment tools.
  • Ensure legal aid for marginalized accused.
  • Reform judicial attitudes that favour incarceration.

Comparative Takeaway

• US: Problem lies in overuse of cash bail → reforms needed to reduce wealth-based incarceration.
• India: Problem lies in under-implementation of bail orders → accused remain in jail despite bail granted.
• Common Issue: Both systems disproportionately affect the poor, violating principles of equality and fair trial.

Daruma Doll, presented to PM Modi in Japan:

Basics

• Daruma Doll:
  • A traditional Japanese wish doll, usually made of papier-mâché.
  • Symbolizes perseverance, determination, and good luck.
  • Typically painted in red; sizes vary from a few inches to several feet.
  • Unique feature: round, hollow shape that allows it to return upright when tipped over → symbolizes resilience.
  • Often features the word “luck” in Kanji.
• Customary Practice:
  • One eye left blank; the owner colours one eye when setting a goal.
  • The second eye is coloured upon achieving the goal.
  • Embodies the Japanese proverb: “Fall seven times, stand up eight.”

Relevance : GS 1(Culture , Heritage) ,GS 2(International Relations)

India Connection

• Origin:
  • Modelled on Bodhidharma, a 5th-century Indian monk from Kanchipuram (Tamil Nadu).
  • Bodhidharma is regarded as the founder of Zen Buddhism and is known in Japan as Daruma Daishi.
• Historical Belief:
  • Bodhidharma meditated for 9 years in a cave in China’s Henan province.
  • His image (no limbs, eyes closed) influenced the design of the Daruma Doll.
• Cultural Link:
  • Word ‘Daruma’ derived from Sanskrit ‘Dharma’, though it has no direct equivalent in Japanese/Chinese.
  • Represents India-Japan civilizational ties through Buddhism.

The Temple

• Shorinzan Daruma-ji Temple, Takasaki, Gunma Prefecture (built 1697).
  • Considered the place of origin of Daruma Dolls.
  • Associated with success and victory; frequented before elections and business ventures.
  • Takasaki is the largest producer of Daruma dolls.
• Chief Priest Seishi Hirose:
  • Belongs to the Obaku sect of Zen Buddhism.
  • Graduate of Komazawa University.
  • Has visited India 40 years ago, highlighting longstanding Indo-Japanese Buddhist links.

Symbolism

• Spiritual Meaning:
  • Perseverance in adversity (reflects Bodhidharma’s meditative endurance).
  • Hope and success in personal/professional life.
• Practical Meaning:
  • Used in goal-setting rituals in Japan.
  • Popular among politicians, business leaders, and common people.

Significance of Gift to Modi

• Reinforces civilizational ties between India and Japan through Buddhism.
• Symbolic gesture linking India’s Bodhidharma legacy with Japanese tradition.
• Highlights diplomatic soft power and cultural symbolism in international relations.

Comprehensive Takeaway

• Daruma Doll = Resilience + Perseverance + Goal-fulfilment.
• Cultural Bridge: Represents shared Buddhist heritage of India & Japan.
• Soft Diplomacy: Gifting the doll to PM Modi was a symbolic act reinforcing historical, religious, and cultural bonds.
• Modern Relevance: Used in politics and business in Japan to inspire success, reflecting the continued importance of cultural traditions in contemporary society.