Content:

1. Rogue Nation
2. The Rot Starts at the Top of the Aviation Ladder
3. Endgame of a 2,611-Year-Old Jewish-Persian Enmity

Rogue nation

Context

• Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the Natanz nuclear plant, missile factories, and homes of nuclear scientists.
• The attacks occurred during ongoing U.S.–Iran dialogue, undermining diplomatic efforts.
• Iran retaliated with drone attacks; further escalation is anticipated.

Relevance : GS 2 (International Relations)

Practice Question : “Israel’s recent unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities poses grave risks to international law, regional peace, and global economic stability.” Critically examine in the context of current West Asian geopolitics. (250 words)

Key Issues Highlighted

• Violation of International Norms:
  • Israel’s unilateral military action is labeled illegal, reckless, and dangerous.
  • Undermines the diplomatic space for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue.

• U.S. Complicity or Powerlessness:
  • Despite warnings, Trump failed to stop Israel.
  • Suggests either U.S. weakness or silent endorsement of Israeli aggression.

• Risk of Escalation:
  • Iran’s harsh response likely, possibly using ballistic missiles.
  • Israel may retaliate, creating a cycle of prolonged conflict.

Iran’s Nuclear Programme – Nuances

• Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity, beyond civilian need.
• IAEA confirms highly enriched uranium presence, but no definitive evidence of weaponization.
• Iran previously agreed to suspend its nuclear program under the 2015 JCPOA, later abandoned by the U.S. under Trump.

Israel’s Recent Pattern of Militarism

• Post October 7 Hamas attack, Israel faces genocide allegations due to massive destruction in Gaza.
• Continues strikes in Lebanon (despite ceasefire) and territorial gains in Syria.
• The Iran strike fits a larger pattern of unchecked aggression.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

• Destabilization of West Asia:
  • Risk of a wider regional war involving Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and the Gulf.
  • Heightened sectarian and geopolitical tensions.

• Global Economic Risk:
  • Escalation could disrupt Gulf trade routes and oil supplies.
  • Particularly dangerous for India, with large expatriate population and heavy economic interests in the region.

Call to Action

• Urgent need for a coordinated global diplomatic intervention.
• The international community must rein in Israel and revive negotiations to prevent a regional catastrophe.

The rot starts at the top of the aviation ladder

Context

• The Air India Flight AI171 crash in Ahmedabad (June 2025) is analyzed as a result of systemic failures, not just pilot error.
• It highlights deep-rooted issues in India’s aviation safety ecosystem, regulatory framework, and accountability culture.

Relevance : GS 3(Disaster Management)

Practice Question : “Air safety in India is not just a technical concern but a reflection of deeper governance and regulatory failures.” Discuss in light of the Air India AI171 crash. (250 words)

Systemic Failures and Regulatory Complacency

• Pattern of negligence: Past accidents (e.g., Mangaluru 2010, Kozhikode 2020) did not lead to systemic reform.
• No accountability beyond pilots: Top officials, MoCA, DGCA, AAI, and airlines consistently evade responsibility.
• Politicization and corruption in aviation governance weaken safety oversight.
• Complacency post-crashes: Safety lapses are repeated, and investigation integrity is compromised.

Deficiencies in Oversight and Professionalism

• Unqualified leadership: Key posts at DGCA and AAI often held by bureaucrats, not domain experts.
• Violation of ICAO norms: DGCA naming pilots publicly breaches international safety protocols.
• Judicial indifference: Supreme Court passing PILs back to MoCA instead of judicial review reflects institutional apathy.

Technical and Operational Red Flags in AI171 Crash

• Suspected bird ingestion due to grass overgrowth — pointing to airport management lapses.
• Possible compressor stall or foreign object damage during takeoff led to partial thrust loss.
• Landing gear remained extended throughout — possibly due to startle effect, missed procedure, or training issues.
• Questions over training status of flight — was it a regular flight or one involving a co-pilot under training?

Infrastructure and Obstacle Concerns

• The aircraft crashed into a multi-storey building near the take-off funnel.
• Raises concerns about No Objection Certificates (NOCs) being granted under political or commercial pressure, compromising airspace safety.

Implications for Aviation Safety Governance

• India’s aviation safety suffers from institutional rot at the top — not merely operational flaws.
• Urgent need for:
  • Professional regulatory leadership
  • Accountable safety investigations
  • Independent judicial oversight
  • Strict adherence to ICAO norms

Conclusion / Call to Action

• The crash is a grave wake-up call:
  • Without systemic overhaul in safety governance, training, and accountability,
  • Future tragedies are likely.
• Learning from such incidents is essential for public trust, global credibility, and passenger safety.

Endgame of a 2,611-year-old Jewish-Persian enmity

Historical & Symbolic Context

• Date of significance: June 13, 2025 — Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile assets.
• Historical arc: The conflict is framed as the culmination of a 2,611-year-old antagonism, dating back to 586 BCE (destruction of the Jewish temple by Babylon).
• Leaders’ rhetoric: Netanyahu and Khamenei both framed the operation in epochal, existential terms — signaling irreversible confrontation.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

Practice Question : “The Israeli offensive against Iran in 2025 marks a significant inflection point in the Jewish-Persian conflict, but the long-term regional consequences remain deeply uncertain.” Analyze. (250 words)

Israeli Military Offensive

• Scale and scope:
  • Over 200 Israeli jets attacked 100+ targets in Iran.
  • Targets included nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and key military and scientific leadership.
• Strategic aims: Decapitation of Iran’s nuclear and command infrastructure in a short, high-tech blitzkrieg.
• Preparedness:
  • Israel had upgraded its air defences and acquired bunker-busting capability.
  • Systematic neutralization of Iranian proxies since Hamas’s October 2023 attack.

Precursor Events & Global Alignments

• Iran geopolitically cornered:
  • Fall of pro-Iran Assad regime in Syria cut Iran’s first defence line.
  • Assassinations and provocations escalated tensions.

• Western role:
  • IAEA passed a resolution condemning Iran (possibly to give Israel legal cover).
  • U.S. pressured Saudi to increase oil supply — weakening Iran’s oil revenues.
  • Renewed U.S. engagement with Pakistan possibly aimed at strategic containment of Iran.
  • U.S. airstrikes on Houthis disrupted Iran’s regional leverage.

Arab World’s Apprehensions

• Sunni Arab states distrust both Israel and Iran.
• Primary concerns:
  • Strait of Hormuz disruption (affecting global oil supply).
  • Retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure.
  • Shia unrest in Sunni-majority nations.
  • Terror resurgence via non-state actors like ISIS and al-Qaeda.

Global and Regional Fallout

• Unforeseen risks:
  • Israel aims for a quick, surgical strike.
  • But Iran may survive and regroup — undercutting Israeli objectives.
• Risk of Iranian public rallying behind regime, due to external threat perception.
• Potential consequences:
  • Radiological fallout if nuclear facilities leak.
  • Escalation into wider war involving U.S., affecting Third World solidarity.
  • Disruption in oil markets → global inflation, recession, and supply chain stress.

Strategic Ironies

• Trump’s inconsistency:
  • Claimed to end “endless wars,” yet set the stage for escalation by killing the 2015 nuclear deal.
• Cost of nuclear ambition:
  • Iran’s nuclear quest may have cost $100 billion — but may now jeopardize its very security.
• Diplomatic isolation of Israel:
  • Unilateral strike may alienate Global South and fuel anti-Israel sentiment.

Scenarios Ahead

1. Short surgical strike: Iran’s strategic depth is neutralized; regime is weakened like post-Gulf War Iraq.
2. Protracted retaliation: Iran expands conflict, targets pro-West allies, drags U.S. into direct combat.
3. Wider redraw of geopolitics:
   1. Iran may retaliate unconventionally — proxy warfare, cyberattacks, and destabilizing neighbours.
   1. Could lead to forced regime change or escalation into a regional war.

Conclusion

• While Israel’s operations aim to decapitate Iran’s strategic threat, the long-term implications are deeply uncertain.
• The legacy of this operation may be shaped not by initial success, but by how Iran responds — and how the region and world absorb the shock.