Current Affairs 26 November 2025
Content China’s Global Lending Power Play Draft Seeds Bill Air Pollution Exposure in India INR Depreciation Why Did Hayli Gubbi Erupt Now? Climate Change and Assam’s Tea Crisis China’s Global Lending Power Play Why is it in News? AidData (William & Mary University) released a major dataset (2000–2023) showing China lent over $2 trillion to 80%+ of the world, revealing a strategic shift from development lending to commercial lending. Shows unexpected top beneficiaries: U.S. firms received ~$200 billion, making the U.S. the largest single-country beneficiary. Data indicates: BRI’s decline, shift to high-income economies, and greater opacity through offshore structures. Relevance: GS2 – International Relations China’s transformation from development lender → commercial financier. Rise of parallel financial architecture challenging WB–IMF dominance. Strategic leverage through corporate lending, tech acquisition, and supply-chain influence. GS3 – Economy Global credit flows, debt sustainability, hidden debt risks. Impact on developing economies’ fiscal health and India’s external sector. Basics: What is Chinese Global Lending? State-driven external finance system led by: China Development Bank Export–Import Bank of China State-owned enterprises People’s Bank of China Two broad categories: Official Development Assistance (ODA) → concessional, development-oriented. Other Official Flows (OOF) → commercial, market-rate, strategic. Key Data & Trends (2000–2023) Scale Total global lending/grants: >$2 trillion. Recipients: 179 of 217 countries/territories. 2023 lending alone: $140 billion → makes China the world’s largest creditor. Top beneficiaries (country entities) U.S. companies: ~$200 billion (2,500 projects; 95% from Chinese state-owned institutions). Russia: $172 billion. Australia: $130 billion. EU (27 states): $161 billion. Shift in beneficiary profile High-income countries received $943 billion → ~20%+ of total Chinese lending. Only 25% of 2023 portfolio is now BRI-linked, down from 75% earlier. Decline in aid Typical annual China ODA: ~$5.7 billion. 2023 ODA plunged to $1.9 billion. Sectoral pattern Earlier: Infrastructure → energy, transport, connectivity. Now: Commercial finance → mergers, acquisitions, corporate lending. Structural Shift: From Aid Provider to Commercial Financier Earlier Model (2000–2015) Focus on: Low-income nations BRI infrastructure Strategic influence + resource access Concessional loans, long maturity, tied procurement. Current Model (2016–2023) Pivot to high-income economies for: Access to advanced technologies Financial returns Corporate stakes U.S. lending surged from $320 million (2000) → $19 billion (2023). 75% of U.S. transactions are commercial; only 7% developmental. Methods & Concerns Raised by AidData 80% success rate in overseas M&A approvals due to: Weak foreign investment screening in recipient countries. Opaque mechanisms: Use of offshore shell companies. Syndicated international banks. Complex creditor structures reducing transparency. Rising risk of hidden debt in low-income countries. Implications for Global Finance & Geopolitics For Global Financial Architecture China emerging as: Largest official creditor, surpassing World Bank + IMF individually. Parallel financial ecosystem → reduces Western institutional dominance. For Developed Economies China’s commercial lending → deeper corporate penetration. Strategic concerns around: Technology acquisition Supply chain leverage National security vulnerabilities For Developing Countries Decline in aid → widening financing gap for: Infrastructure Social development Increased exposure to: Debt distress Collateral-backed lending (ports, minerals) For BRI Downscaling but not disappearing. Prioritisation of: Quality over quantity Higher-return projects Geopolitical essentials India Angle Total Indian borrowing/aid from China (2000–2023): $11.1 billion. Sectors: Energy Banking & financial services Nature: Mix of commercial + developmental. India remains cautious due to: Strategic competition Supply chain dependencies Security concerns (FDI scrutiny after 2020) Draft Seeds Bill Entail Why is it in News? The Union Agriculture Ministry released the draft Seeds Bill on November 12, 2025; public comments invited till December 11. Objective: update and modernise the Seeds Act, 1966 and the Seeds (Control) Order, 1983 in line with technological advances, commercial changes, and global commitments. Comes amid rising tensions between seed industry demands (modernisation) and farmers’ unions’ concerns (corporatisation & seed sovereignty). Relevance: GS2 – Governance / Policy Overhaul of Seeds Act, 1966; regulatory modernisation. Centre–State regulatory overlap, federal tensions. Alignment with PPVFR Act, CBD, ITPGRFA → treaty compliance. GS3 – Agriculture Seed quality standards → productivity, crop failure reduction. Impact on small farmers, seed sovereignty, traditional varieties. Liberalising imports → biosecurity, corporate consolidation risks. Why a Seeds Law? Seeds are the primary determinant of crop productivity (35–40% contribution). India has moved from: 1960s: Public-sector dominated seed systems 2020s: Hybrid technologies, GM traits, corporate breeding, biotech, global IPR regimes Need for: Quality assurance Traceability Regulation of producers/dealers Alignment with PPVFR Act (2001) and biodiversity conventions History & Context Seeds Act, 1966 and Seeds (Control) Order, 1983 now outdated. Seed industry demand: Law must reflect advancements in biotechnology, hybrid seeds, transgenics, R&D intensity, global trade. India’s seed requirement 2023–24: 462.31 lakh quintals Availability: 508.60 lakh quintals → 46.29 lakh quintal surplus Farmers’ unions’ position: fear of corporatisation, loss of seed sovereignty, and restriction of farmers’ traditional practices. New Provisions: What the Draft Bill Proposes Regulatory Architecture Covers import, production, processing, certification, distribution, sale of seeds. New definitions for farmer, dealer, distributor, producer. Farmers’ Rights Farmers retain right to grow, sow, re-sow, save, exchange, share, sell farm-saved seed. Restriction only when seed is sold under a brand name. Embedded link to Protection of Plant Varieties and Farmers’ Rights (PPVFR) Act, 2001. Institutional Framework Central Seed Committee (27 members) → sets: Minimum standards on germination, genetic purity, physical purity, seed health, traits. State Seed Committees (15 members) → registration of: Seed producers Seed processing units Dealers/distributors Plant nurseries Seed Registration & Testing Mandatory registration of all: Seed producers Seed processing units Provision for: National Register of seed varieties Field trials for Value for Cultivation & Use (VCU) Central & State seed testing laboratories Import Liberalisation More open system for seed imports, with quality safeguards. Central Accreditation System Merit-based accreditation for companies operating in multiple States to reduce compliance burden. Enforcement Mechanism Seed inspectors empowered to search, seize, sample, and test. Framework aligned with Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS). Offences & Penalties: What Has Changed from 2019 Draft? Changes from 2019 Draft Earlier penalties (2019): ₹25,000–₹5 lakh, imprisonment up to 1 year. Covered largely under consumer protection laws. New Draft (2024) Penalties significantly enhanced: ₹50,000 to ₹30 lakh Imprisonment up to 3 years Categorisation into trivial, minor, major offences. Much stronger punitive framework to curb: Misbranding Spurious seed sales Fake labels Trait misrepresentation Farmers’ Concerns Key objections by All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) / Samyukt Kisan Morcha Bill will increase cost of cultivation due to: Corporate entry Potential for predatory pricing Seen as part of a centralised, corporatised regulatory architecture. Fear of: Undermining India’s seed sovereignty Weakening of farmer-centric protections Dilution of biodiversity safeguards Legal & International Commitments Farmers Invoke Must not conflict with: PPVFR Act, 2001 (farmers’ rights) Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources (ITPGRFA) Major apprehensions Centralised regulation may: Reduce autonomy of States Increase dependence on corporate seed lines Marginalise traditional varieties Industry’s Position Federation of Seed Industry of India: Calls the draft timely and much-needed. Supports: Higher standards Liberalisation of imports Accreditation-based regulation Clear penalties Says it aligns India with global seed trade standards. Critical Analysis Strengths Updated quality standards → reduced spurious seeds, higher yields. Clarity on farmers’ rights → compliance with PPVFR Act. Modernised regulation → ease of doing business for legitimate players. Strong penalties → deterrence against adulteration. National Register + lab network → greater traceability and transparency. Weaknesses / Risks Centralisation risks limiting State autonomy (Key in agri-sector). Liberal import regime → risk to domestic breeders, biosecurity. Accreditation system may favour large corporations. VCU trials may increase cost and time, disadvantaging small breeders. Opportunities Harmonisation with global standards → export potential for Indian seed industry. Improved seed quality → reduced crop failures, higher productivity. Stimulates R&D, hybrid seed development, biotech innovation. Threats Corporate consolidation → increased input costs. Farmers’ distrust → protests, political backlash. Inadequate protection for traditional varieties → biodiversity loss. Air Pollution Exposure in India Core Findings 60% districts (447/749) record annual PM2.5 above NAAQS (40 µg/m³). 0 districts meet WHO guideline (5 µg/m³). Indicates year-round exposure, not only winter-linked. Relevance: GS3 – Environment India-wide PM2.5 exposure trends; compliance gap with NAAQS/WHO standards. Seasonal divergence (winter vs monsoon) → atmospheric science relevance. Urban–rural health burden; link to climate–pollution interactions. GS2 – Governance Air quality regulation, monitoring deficits, federal coordination challenges. Policy gaps in Clean Air Programme, emission control, district-level planning. Geographical Pattern Major hotspots (Top 50 districts) Delhi – 11 Assam – 11 Bihar – 7 Haryana – 7 UP – 4 Tripura – 3 Rajasthan – 2 West Bengal – 2 Cleaner States (mostly within NAAQS) AP, Telangana, Kerala, Sikkim, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu Indicates North–East and North dominance vs South–Coastal cleaner belt. Seasonality Winter (Dec–Feb) 82% districts (616/749) exceed NAAQS. Reasons: stable atmosphere, low wind, increased emissions. Monsoon (Jun–Sep) 90% districts within safe limits (675/749) due to rain scavenging. Technical Notes PM2.5 = toxic chemical + organic aerosol particles. Population exposure differs from ambient readings due to population density distribution. Study by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA); not peer-reviewed. INR Depreciation Current Status INR = worst-performing Asian currency in 2025 (Jan–Dec CYTD). Depreciation: 4.3% vs USD (CYTD); 4% CYTD as per Axis Bank estimate. Recent movement: Broke RBI’s defended 88.8 level → touched 89.66 (21 Nov 2025) → recovered to 89.22. Relevance: GS3 – Economy Exchange-rate dynamics; comparison with Asian currencies. Drivers: strong USD, tariffs, gold imports, capital outflows. Trade deficit, external vulnerabilities, BoP pressures. Monetary policy implications; RBI intervention strategy. GS2 – International Relations Impact of U.S. tariffs on India; geopolitical trade pressures. Currency as a geo-economic tool in India–U.S. relations. Comparison with Asian Peers Indonesian Rupiah (IDR): –2.9% CYTD. Philippine Peso (PHP): –1.3% CYTD. Chinese Yuan (CNY): Appreciated due to PBOC/SAFE interventions. INR weaker vs Asia FX, especially vs current account surplus economies. Still stronger than JPY, KRW, which face domestic policy fragility. Drivers of Depreciation Strong USD (global) USD appreciated 3.6% in last two months → pressure across emerging markets. U.S. Tariffs on India (Trump administration) 50% tariff on Indian exports. Triggered record trade deficit: $41.7 bn (Oct 2025). Direct negative impact on export competitiveness. Surge in Gold Prices & Imports Massive spike in global gold prices → investors shifted to gold & Gold ETFs. Gold demand up 200% (Oct). Gold import bill = $14.72 bn (Oct) → worsened trade deficit. Capital Outflows Depreciation pressure not due to current account (benign). Due to portfolio outflows amid global risk-off and high USD yields. Adverse Geo-economic Environment Combination of tariffs, commodity price shock, and geopolitical instability affecting trade flows. Forward Outlook INR may slide to 90/USD if India–U.S. trade deal is delayed. Rupee trajectory dominated by global USD strength, not domestic fundamentals. Why did Hayli Gubbi erupt now ? Why is it in News? Erupted on 23 November 2025 after being dormant for ~12,000 years. Produced an explosive ash-rich eruption, unusual for a shield volcano. Located in the Afar Region, a tectonically sensitive area within the East African Rift System. Eruption monitored mainly via satellite imagery due to remoteness. Relevance: GS1 – Geography Shield volcano characteristics; Afar Rift tectonics; triple-junction dynamics. Dormant volcano reactivation after millennia; magma chemistry. Rift-related volcanism → creation of future ocean basin. GS3 – Disaster Management Monitoring challenges in remote volcanic systems. Role of satellite-based early warning; preparedness gaps. What is a Shield Volcano? Broad, gently sloping volcanic structure. Formed by multiple thin, fluid basaltic lava flows. Low viscosity magma → flows long distances → “warrior’s shield” shape. Typically non-explosive eruptions due to low gas content. Location & Tectonic Setting Situated in Afar, Ethiopia, part of the Erta Ale volcanic range. Lies on the boundary of: African Plate Arabian Plate Region forms a triple junction (Afar Triple Junction). Part of the active East African Rift, where continents are pulling apart (divergent plate boundary). Geological Composition of Hayli Gubbi Dominantly basaltic lava (dark, fluid). Also contains trachyte and rhyolite (higher silica content). High-silica magma → more viscous → traps gases → explosive potential. Why Did the Eruption Occur Now After 12,000 Years? Tectonic Drivers Rifting continues → plates pulling apart. This allows hot mantle material to rise. Magma Generation Rising mantle undergoes partial melting. Fresh magma accumulates in shallow crustal chambers. Long-term Magma Buildup Over millennia: Magma slowly pressurises surrounding rocks. Gas-rich, silica-rich pockets evolve. Crustal Faulting or Cracking Rifting causes fault slippage or crustal fractures. A new pathway to the surface opens suddenly. Sudden Ascent of Gas-Rich Magma Once pathway opens: Pressurised magma rises rapidly. Dissolved gases expand into bubbles → explosive eruption. Explains why a shield volcano (usually gentle) produced ash-heavy explosive activity. Why Was It Explosive This Time? Presence of more silica-rich magmas (trachyte, rhyolite). These magmas: Viscous, slow-flowing → gas cannot escape. High gas content → explosive release when decompressed. Long dormancy → pressure buildup significant. Monitoring Challenges Region is remote, poorly instrumented. Very limited seismic stations, gas sensors, ground deformation tools. Scientists rely on: Satellites (thermal anomalies, ash plume movement). Ash chemistry samples. Infrasound and remote radar. Current assessments are provisional, pending better data. Broader Geological Significance Shows that rift-zone volcanoes can reawaken after millennia. Demonstrates mixed-magma systems in shield volcanoes. Highlights the dynamic nature of the East African Rift → one of the few places on Earth where a new ocean basin is forming. Case Study : Climate Change and Assam’s Tea Crisis Why is it in News? Persistent heat, delayed rainfall, high humidity continue into November, disrupting Assam’s traditional post-monsoon cooling. Unpredictable weather causing wilting, blackening, and irregular flush cycles, hitting productivity and quality. Climate change + stagnant prices squeezing margins of tea growers and estates. New research using 50 years’ climate data + IPCC RCP 2.6 & 4.5 models shows suitability decline by 2050, forcing tea cultivation to shift to higher altitudes. Tea tribes (a major workforce constituency) becoming a key factor ahead of Assam 2026 elections. Relevance: GS1 – Geography Climate–crop interactions; temperature/rainfall variability. Regional vulnerability: floodplains, monsoon dependence. GS3 – Environment & Agriculture Climate impacts on productivity, quality, pest outbreaks. Modelling (RCP scenarios) → future suitability shifts to higher altitudes. Adaptation technologies: irrigation, clonal varieties, agroforestry. GS2 – Governance / Social Issues Tea tribes’ socio-economic vulnerability. Labour rights, health impacts, political relevance ahead of 2026 elections. Tea Basics — The Science of the Crop Optimal temperature: 13–28°C, best growth at 23–25°C. Optimal rainfall: 1,500–2,500 mm, evenly distributed. Soil: Acidic (pH 4.5–5.5), deep, well-drained, high organic matter. Growth pattern: Continuous but in flush cycles, driven by temperature + moisture. Quality determinants: Flavour and aroma depend on slow growth, cool nights, and predictable rainfall. What Climate Change Is Doing to Assam’s Tea Temperature Mean minimum temperature rise of 1°C over 90 years → destroys night-time cooling needed for flavour compounds. More days >35°C → nutrient absorption falls; leaves wilt. Rainfall Winter & pre-monsoon rainfall declining → poor early-season flush. Monsoon rainfall becoming erratic → flooding + soil nutrient leaching. ~200 mm annual rainfall loss over 90 years → chronic moisture stress. Seasonality Shift Heat lingering till November → mismatched harvest cycles, disease risk rises. Pests & Diseases Warmer, more humid conditions → explosion of red spider mite, tea mosquito bug, blister blight. New pest behaviour observed after night temperatures rose. Impact on Tea Quality Reduced polyphenol and flavonoid formation → weaker aroma, lower global competitiveness. Economic Stress: Weather Gets Worse, Prices Don’t Improve Tea auction price rise: only 4.8% per year for 30 years. Staples like wheat/rice: ~10% annual price rise. Real returns stagnant → growers cannot invest in new clones, irrigation, or R&D. Rising input costs: labour, energy, agrochemicals, logistics, irrigation. Ageing bushes (40–60 years old) + no funds for replantation → productivity stagnation. Why Assam Tea Is Especially Vulnerable Grown in floodplains, not hills → hydrological stress higher. Monoculture plantations → low ecosystem resilience. High labour dependence → wages rise but productivity does not. Climate-sensitive product where quality directly follows weather cycles. Social & Political Dimensions 12 lakh workers, majority women → highest climate vulnerability. Increased heat stress, mosquito-borne disease risk, water shortages. Wages stagnant, living conditions poor → climate shocks hit hardest. With elections due in 2026, tea tribes are emerging as a decisive political constituency. Issues gaining traction: Rising cost of living Poor housing & healthcare Climate-driven drop in working days Stagnant wages Adaptation Pathways — What the Industry Is Trying Agronomic Solutions Drought-resilient clonal varieties + seed-grown plants with deep roots. Mulching, cover cropping → retain soil moisture. Agroforestry → shade trees reduce heat, stabilise microclimate. Organic amendments → rebuild soil carbon. Water Management Micro-irrigation, sprinklers, drip systems. Rainwater harvesting for dry patches. Drainage redesign to handle sudden downpours. Pest Management Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Biological controls, pheromone traps, precision spraying. Supply-Chain Reform trustea (India Sustainable Tea Code) 1.4 lakh small growers verified 6.5 lakh workers covered Focus on efficient water use, safe agrochemicals, shade cover, soil health. Structural Reforms Needed Policy parity: treat tea as agriculture, not an industry only. Income diversification for estates: spices, fruits, agri-tourism, livestock, fisheries, direct-to-consumer sales. Investment in climate forecasting, early-warning systems. Subsidised replantation, drip irrigation, and disaster-compensation schemes (like MSP-linked crops). Big Picture — The Tea–Climate Paradox Assam produces 50%+ of India’s tea and drives a $10 billion economy. Climate is becoming harsher just as global tea prices stagnate. Domestic labour, logistics, compliance costs rising → margins collapse. Without decisive adaptation + policy support, India risks losing global leadership in premium tea.