Current Affairs 22 September 2025
Content Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee: Implications for Indian Workers and the IT Sector The Rising Age of India’s Leaders: Gerontocracy, Governance, and Youth Representation Can timelines be fixed for Governors? Supercomputers vs. Normal Computers: Basics, Architecture, and India’s Technological Edge Sawalkote Hydel Project: Balancing Energy Security, Environmental Governance, and Water Diplomacy The Problem with Low Inflation: Fiscal Arithmetic, Economic Implications, and Policy Challenges Blending Isobutanol with Diesel: Feasibility, Benefits, and Challenges for India’s Biofuel Strategy Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee: Impact on Indian Workers and IT Sector Context H-1B Visa: U.S. work visa allowing companies to employ foreign professionals in specialized fields (tech, engineering, medicine, etc.). Previous Fee: $2,000–$5,000 per application. New Fee: Raised sharply to $100,000 for fresh applicants, effective midnight, September 20 (New York time). Scope: Initially applied only to applicants “currently outside the U.S.”; later clarified as a one-time fee per petition, not annual. Relevance: GS2 (International Relations / Governance): India–U.S. relations, bilateral trade and workforce mobility. Diplomatic response, humanitarian concerns for Indian citizens abroad. GS3 (Economy / Science & Technology): Impact on Indian IT services, skilled workforce mobility, and project continuity. Implications for economic competitiveness, talent migration, and global tech industry. Immediate Implications Impact on Indian workers: Indians account for 71% of H-1B beneficiaries (FY 2023-24). Median Indian H-1B salary: $95,500 (2024), among the lowest across all nationalities. 60% earn ≤ $100,000; 12% earn < $75,000, 47% earn $75,000–$100,000. The $100,000 fee could exceed or match many workers’ annual salaries, making sponsorship economically unviable. Business and IT sector effects: Nasscom warns disruption in onshore projects and continuity risks. Small and mid-size tech firms may find hiring Indian H-1B workers unfeasible. Timeline of implementation (Sept 21) created operational uncertainty. Humanitarian and diplomatic concerns: Indian government termed the move likely to have “humanitarian consequences.” Missions abroad instructed to assist H-1B holders and families. Policy Rationale (U.S. perspective) Trump administration argument: H-1B visas are being used to replace American workers with lower-paid foreign labor. Share of IT workers on H-1B visas rose from 32% in FY 2003 to over 65% recently. Cited economic and national security threat. Commerce Secretary’s statement: Companies can no longer justify training foreign workers at nominal fees. The $100,000 fee per worker is intended to deter “non–economical” hiring. Data Analysis Salary mismatch: Median salary of Indian H-1B workers ($95,500) vs. new fee ($100,000) → cost exceeds earnings for majority. Non-Indian H-1B median salary: $120,000; Indians disproportionately affected. Potential employer behavior: Employers may reduce hiring of Indian professionals. Could push Indian IT talent toward alternative destinations (Canada, Europe, Singapore). Reactions Indian Government: Studying full implications, assisting visa holders. Industry bodies (Nasscom): Warned of disruption in project timelines and uncertainty for businesses. Highlighted the short notice as particularly problematic. Clarifications One-time fee: White House clarified that the $100,000 fee applies only to new petitions, not annual for current visa holders. Flight surge avoided: Initial panic over visa fees triggering mass returns mitigated by this clarification. Broader Implications Economic / Tech Sector: Could slow India-U.S. tech workforce integration. Small to mid-size IT companies disproportionately affected; large corporations may absorb cost. Possible impact on bilateral trade negotiations, as this coincided with key Indo-U.S. trade discussions. Human Capital & Migration: May push Indian professionals to seek other migration routes (Canada’s tech visas, Europe). Could reduce U.S. tech sector competitiveness in the long term if high-skilled talent inflow decreases. Political Messaging: Domestic U.S.: Framed as protecting American jobs. India: Seen as a diplomatic irritant; potential impact on India-U.S. bilateral cooperation. The Rising Age of India’s Leaders: Gerontocracy, Governance, and Youth Representation Context Trigger Events: Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned as Vice President citing age-related health issues. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat suggested leaders should step aside at 75; sparked debate as PM Modi and other leaders continue beyond this age. BJP’s unofficial “75-year limit” symbolized through Margadarshak Mandal (retirement/advisory cell). State-Level Relevance: Bihar CM Nitish Kumar’s age and health questioned ahead of elections; public gaffes raised concerns about policy decision-making. Relevance: GS2 (Governance / Polity): Leadership demographics, political succession, party mechanisms. GS1 (Society / Culture): Historical perspective on leadership, global comparison of gerontocracy. Global Perspective Gerontocracy: Rule by older leaders or councils of elders; prevalent globally. 2024 U.S. Elections: Age was central; Biden left office at 82, Trump inaugurated at 78 years 220 days. Other Examples: Brazil: Lula da Silva, 79 Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu, 75 India: Narendra Modi, 74 Authoritarian Context: Leaders like Erdogan (Turkey, 72) and Putin (Russia, 72) maintain power long-term; shows age rarely constrains political dominance in non-democracies. Historical Roots Ancient Precedent: Greek city-states and Roman Senate: Age associated with wisdom and experience; legitimized elder rule (traditional authority). Indian PM Trend: Nehru: First PM at 58, median age 66; demitted office at 74 Rajiv Gandhi: Youngest PM at 40 Morarji Desai: Oldest PM at 81 Modi: Entered office at 63; median age of PMs rising to 76 by 2014 Historical median PM age: ~67 Indian CMs Trend: Median age rose modestly: 57 (1950s) → 59.5 (2020s) Peak decade: 2010–2020, median CM age 62.25 Younger appointees balanced by veteran leaders like Prakash Singh Badal, V.S. Achuthanandan, M. Karunanidhi. Parliamentary Demographics Lok Sabha Age Profile: Average MP age: 46.5 (1952) → 56 (2014) Share of 25–40-year-old MPs: 25–30% (early years) → <10% (2019) MPs aged 56–70: <25% → ~40% (2019) Youth Representation: Random Indian <30 years old: 50% probability Random MP <30 years old: 0.007% probability Indicates significant underrepresentation of youth in Parliament Key Implications Gerontocracy as Norm: India mirrors global trend of older leaders in democracy and autocracy. Experience and longevity often prioritized over generational turnover. Governance Implications: Older leaders may face health or cognitive constraints affecting decision-making. Public perception of leadership may shift (e.g., Nitish Kumar’s “sushasan babu” image vs current doubts). Political Culture: Lack of formal retirement age allows leaders to hold power indefinitely. Party mechanisms (e.g., BJP’s Margadarshak Mandal) signal informal retirement frameworks. Democratic Renewal: Declining youth representation in Parliament may reduce innovation, responsiveness, and generational equity in policy. Gerontocracy raises questions about succession planning, leadership grooming, and inclusion of younger voices. Global Comparison: Indian median age of PMs and CMs rising, similar to trends in U.S., Brazil, Israel, and authoritarian regimes. Suggests gerontocracy is a persistent feature of political systems, whether democratic or autocratic. Can timelines be fixed for Governors? Background Presidential Reference (May 2025): Supreme Court asked for opinion on 14 questions mainly on Articles 200 and 201 (Governor/President assent to State Bills). Trigger Judgment:State of Tamil Nadu v. Governor of Tamil Nadu & Anr (April 2025) Prescribed timelines: Governor: 3 months to act on Bills (assent, withhold, or reserve for President). President: 3 months to decide on Bills reserved by Governor. Delay beyond timelines can be judicially reviewed. Government Objection: Raised question of Court’s authority to prescribe timelines when Constitution does not specify them. Relevance : GS2 (Polity / Governance): Governor’s discretion, state–centre relations, federalism, judicial review. GS2 (Constitutional Law): Articles 163, 200, 201, principle of responsible government, commission recommendations. Constitutional Provisions Article 200: Governor’s options when a State Bill is presented: Assent Withhold (reject) Return for reconsideration Reserve for President Article 163(1): Governor must act per Council of Ministers’ advice, except when Constitution requires discretion. Provison in Article 200: Governor may return Bill “as soon as possible” for reconsideration. Article 201: President’s assent to Bills reserved by Governor; no timeline specified. Discretionary Powers of Governor: Rare, e.g., Bill contravening Constitution or affecting High Court powers. Otherwise, action is ministerial, not discretionary. Judicial Precedent: Shamsher Singh (1974): Governor cannot withhold assent at will; must follow ministers’ advice. April 2025 judgment interpreted “Governor shall” as mandatory, not discretionary. Commission Recommendations Sarkaria Commission (1987): Only rare reservation of Bills for President implies discretion. President should act within 6 months on reserved Bills. Punchhi Commission (2010): Governor should decide on Bills within 6 months. Arguments Centre / Union Government: Governor has constitutional discretion under Article 163(1). Courts cannot fix timelines; issues between Governor, State Govt, and President should be resolved politically. Article 201 (President) has no timelines; judicial intervention may undermine federalism. Opposition-ruled States: Governors in such States allegedly delay assent/reserve Bills selectively. Delays against ministerial advice undermine popular mandate. Delay cannot be termed as legitimate discretion. Supreme Court’s Stand (April 2025): Interpreted Article 200: “Governor shall” act, not discretionary. Prescribed 3-month timeline for Governor/President actions. Reliance on past judgments (Nabam Rebia, 2006) and commission recommendations. Challenges Federalism vs Judicial Oversight: Balancing Governor’s discretion with elected government authority. Politicisation of Governor’s Post: Allegations of bias in Opposition-ruled States. Democratic Functioning: Delays in assent/reservation can stall law-making and governance. Way Forward Short-Term: Centre and Governors should adhere to April 2025 judgment timelines (3 months) to respect federalism and democratic principles. Await Supreme Court opinion on Presidential reference for clarification. Long-Term / Structural: Consider measures to reduce politicisation of gubernatorial posts. Ensure constitutional scheme provides for nominal head while protecting State government’s authority. Foster political consensus to prevent recurrent legislative impasses. Significance Clarifies scope of Governor’s discretion vs ministerial advice. Strengthens principle of responsible government at State level. Judicial timelines aim to prevent undue delays in legislative process. Reinforces federal and democratic checks and balances How different are supercomputers to normal computers? Basics Supercomputers are high-performance computing machines designed to solve extremely large, complex, and calculation-intensive problems. Unlike ordinary laptops, they can handle tasks like weather forecasting, nuclear simulations, astrophysics modelling, and AI training. Performance is measured in FLOPS (floating-point operations per second); modern supercomputers operate in petaflops to exaflops. Relevance : GS3 (Science & Technology): High-performance computing, AI/quantum/neuromorphic computing, national infrastructure. GS3 (Economy): Strategic technological self-reliance, innovation ecosystem. Working Principle Parallel Computing: Instead of relying on one fast processor, supercomputers use thousands to millions of processors (cores) simultaneously. Each core handles a part of the problem; results are combined for a complete solution. Processor Types: CPU: Handles general-purpose tasks. GPU: Handles repetitive mathematical computations efficiently; widely used in scientific simulations and AI. Nodes: A node = a group of processors + memory; thousands of nodes make up a supercomputer. Interconnection: Nodes are connected via high-speed networks enabling ultra-fast data exchange. Memory & Storage: Each node has local memory; central storage systems handle petabytes of data with special file systems for parallel access. Cooling & Power: Massive heat generation requires water-cooling, refrigeration, or immersion cooling. Power consumption can match that of a small town, requiring careful distribution and efficiency. Software & Programming Supercomputer software manages: Task scheduling across thousands of processors. Memory management and inter-node communication. Load balancing to prevent idle cores and reduce power waste. Programming frameworks: MPI (Message Passing Interface), OpenMP for parallel programming. Users interact remotely using terminal-based job scripts specifying: Program to run, resources needed, and duration. Jobs are queued and assigned by a scheduler, with output stored in the file system. Performance Metrics FLOPS (Floating Point Operations per Second): Laptops: billions of FLOPS. Top supercomputers: exaflops (10^18 operations/sec). Enables tasks that no human or ordinary computer could complete in a lifetime. India’s Supercomputing Landscape History: C-DAC founded in 1988 after Western countries denied high-end exports. PARAM series: First indigenous supercomputer (PARAM 8000, 1991). National Supercomputing Mission (NSM, 2015): Aim: 70+ high-performance computing facilities across India, teraflops to petaflops. Collaboration: DST, MeitY, C-DAC, IISc. Focus on indigenous hardware & software (Rudra, AUM nodes). Major Supercomputers: AIRAWAT-PSAI (C-DAC Pune): Fastest in India, top 100 globally. Pratyush (IITM Pune), Mihir (NCMRWF Noida): Weather & climate modelling. PARAM-series also at IITs, IISERs, IISc, and central labs. Applications in India: Weather forecasting (monsoons, climate change). Oceanic & Himalayan modelling. Molecular dynamics, drug discovery, nanotech simulations. Astrophysics (black holes, gravitational waves, galactic structures). Defence scenario simulations, AI model training. Future Trends Exascale Computing: Machines capable of exaflops performance; e.g., JUPITER (Germany) — fully renewable-powered. Quantum Computing: Leverages quantum mechanics for specialized problem-solving; may reduce hardware and energy demand. Neuromorphic Computing: Brain-inspired designs integrating processing and memory on a single chip; potential gains in energy efficiency and speed. Key Insights Supercomputers are critical national infrastructure for research, defence, climate, and AI. Parallelism, high-speed networks, and efficient software are central to their operation. India’s self-reliance in supercomputing is growing, reducing dependence on imports. Future innovations may drastically reduce energy needs while increasing computational capacity. Sawalkote Hydel Project: Energy Security, Environment, and Water Diplomacy Context Project: Sawalkote Hydel Project (1,865 MW) on the Chenab River in Jammu & Kashmir. River System: Chenab is part of the Indus river system, which flows into Pakistan. Status: Project stalled; environmental clearance is under review by the Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) of the Ministry of Environment. Significance: One of India’s largest hydropower projects on a western river. Relevance : GS3 (Infrastructure / Energy / Environment): Renewable energy development, hydropower, environmental governance. GS2 (International Relations): Indus Waters Treaty, India–Pakistan water diplomacy, regional stability. Geopolitical Indus Waters Treaty (1960): Bilateral treaty between India and Pakistan governing sharing of Indus rivers. India can use western rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) only for non-consumptive purposes (hydropower, irrigation limited to run-of-the-river projects). Full control over Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (eastern rivers). Current Challenge: Treaty in abeyance after Pahalgam attack; diplomatic sensitivities around water projects heightened. Environmental & Regulatory Aspects Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC): Reviews large infrastructure projects for environmental compliance. Evaluates environmental impact assessments (EIA) submitted by project developers. Strategic Importance of EAC Meeting: Clearance could unblock the stalled project. May set a precedent for large hydro projects on western rivers in J&K. Strategic & Political Significance Energy Security: 1,865 MW hydropower will significantly augment power supply in J&K and northern India. National Strategy: Post-Pahalgam attack, the project has been prioritized for strategic and economic reasons. Multiple tenders already floated, indicating government push for rapid implementation. Diplomatic Angle: Any development on Chenab may require careful handling to avoid tension with Pakistan. Could influence Indo-Pak relations, Indus Waters Treaty negotiations, and regional stability. Technical Considerations Type: Hydroelectric dam with 1,865 MW capacity. Location: Udhampur/Reasi/Ramban districts of J&K; part of western rivers. Design Considerations: Must comply with run-of-the-river restrictions under IWT. Requires environmental mitigation, including submergence impact, ecosystem disruption, and sediment management. Broader Implications Water Diplomacy: India’s use of western rivers is highly regulated under IWT, so projects like Sawalkote are closely monitored by Pakistan. Energy & Development: Hydropower projects are key to renewable energy targets and local employment. Environmental Concerns: Potential ecosystem impact, displacement, and river ecology changes must be mitigated. Federal & Strategic Priority: Central government treats such projects as national strategic assets. Key Takeaways The Sawalkote dam represents the intersection of energy development, environmental governance, and international diplomacy. Clearance decisions will balance India’s energy needs with Indus Treaty obligations and environmental safeguards. EAC’s recommendation could unlock one of the largest hydro projects in northern India, shaping the future of hydro infrastructure in J&K. The Problem with Low Inflation: Fiscal Arithmetic and Economic Implications Context Inflation Data: CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation: 2.07% in August 2025. WPI (Wholesale Price Index) inflation: 0.52% in August 2025 compared to August 2024. Nominal vs Real GDP: Real GDP: Adjusted for inflation; measures physical growth of goods/services. Nominal GDP: Unadjusted for inflation; reflects monetary value of all goods/services and is critical for government’s fiscal calculations (tax revenue, deficit, debt). Budget Assumptions: 2025-26 Union Budget assumed nominal GDP growth of 11% (₹357 lakh crore) from revised ₹321 lakh crore in 2024-25. Fiscal deficit target: 4.4% of nominal GDP; Debt-to-GDP: 56.1%. Relevance: GS3 (Economy / Fiscal Policy): Nominal vs real GDP, budget assumptions, inflation impact on tax revenue and deficit. GS3 (Monetary Policy): RBI’s role, price stability, corporate profitability, demand-supply dynamics. Overview Low Inflation: Implications Positive for consumers: Prices of goods and services are rising slowly → higher purchasing power. Reduces cost-of-living pressures for households. Challenges for government: Slower nominal GDP growth → lower than expected tax revenue. Makes fiscal targets (deficit, debt ratio) harder to achieve without additional revenue or expenditure cuts. Nominal GDP Growth and Budget Arithmetic Current Trends: Real GDP growth Q1 FY26: 7.8% (5-quarter high). Nominal GDP growth Q1 FY26: 8.8% (3-quarter low) → below 11% Budget assumption. Significance: Government projections for tax revenue are tied to nominal GDP growth. Weak price growth reduces the monetary value of output, affecting revenue calculations. Even with strong real growth, low inflation can depress nominal GDP. Historical Perspective & Base Effect Nominal GDP regularly misses Budget targets: Last 13 years: only 4 years matched Budget assumptions. Economic forecasting is inherently uncertain. Base effect in FY25: GDP revised from ₹321 lakh crore → ₹331 lakh crore. Required nominal growth for FY26 to meet Budget: ~8% (lower than initial 11%). Highlights dependency of fiscal arithmetic on nominal GDP benchmarks. Causes of Low Inflation Oversupply / Weak demand: Ideal scenario → low inflation is benign. Corporate profitability: April-June 2025: sales rose ~5.3-5.5%, net profits increased 17-27%. Indicates profits rising faster than sales → not due to productivity gains. Other factors: Global commodity price moderation. Weak investment (capex) → less demand pressure in economy. Consequences for Fiscal Policy Short-term impacts: Slower nominal growth → tax revenue below projections. Pressure on government to maintain deficit and debt targets. Medium-term considerations: If low inflation persists, may limit government’s capacity for new spending or stimulus. RBI may maintain accommodative monetary policy to support nominal GDP growth. Broader Economic Implications Policy tension: Low inflation benefits consumers but can constrain fiscal space. Balancing growth stimulus vs fiscal discipline becomes challenging. Market signals: Strong corporate profits with weak sales growth → uneven economic expansion. Potential signs of demand-side weakness despite supply-side stability. Is it feasible to blend isobutanol and diesel? Context Biofuel under consideration: Isobutanol – an alcohol compound with inflammable properties. Agency: Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) exploring blending with diesel. Motivation: Ethanol blending with diesel was unsuccessful; isobutanol blends better with diesel. Pilot Project: Expected duration ~18 months; if successful, India may become the first country to blend isobutanol with diesel. Relevance: GS3 (Economy / Energy / Environment): Alternative fuels, emission reduction, import substitution. GS3 (Science & Technology): Biofuel production, fermentation technology, engine performance studies. Production & Raw Material Raw materials: Sugarcane syrup, molasses, grains, and other biomass sources used for ethanol production. Production process: Specially engineered microbes ferment natural sugars under sterile conditions. Unlike conventional yeast for ethanol, these microbes are designed to produce isobutanol. Infrastructure requirements: Existing ethanol plants can be retrofitted: Fermentation tanks slightly modified. Distillation tanks to separate ethanol from isobutanol. Example: 150 klp/d plant → 125 klp/d ethanol + 20 klp/d isobutanol with minimal changes. Why Ethanol Was Discarded Miscibility: Ethanol blends poorly with diesel. Flash point concerns: Ethanol has a lower flash point → higher volatility → greater fire risk. Surplus issue: Ethanol is already in surplus; government targets 20% blending with petrol. Advantages of Isobutanol Better blending with diesel: No need for efficiency complements. Higher flash point than ethanol: Safer for storage and transport. Emission benefits: Reduces pollutants and aids India’s net-zero targets. Import substitution: Reduces dependence on fossil diesel imports. Utilization of surplus biomass: Offers an alternative use for sugarcane molasses/syrup. Challenges / Cons Cetane number: Significantly lower than diesel → may reduce ignition quality and combustion efficiency. Diesel knock risk: Uneven/premature combustion can damage engines and reduce power. Miscibility issues with diesel: Requires blending with biodiesel to stabilize mixture. Cost implications: Cetane-enhancing additives needed → incremental cost. Blending limit: No more than 10% isobutanol recommended in diesel to avoid engine issues. Further testing needed: Impacts vary by vehicle type and class; pilot studies essential. Impact on Engine Performance Potential positive: Reduced emissions, better environmental outcomes. Potential negative: Lower cetane → slower ignition, reduced power, risk of engine knock. Proper additives required to restore performance. Pilot study essential to determine optimal blending ratios and effects on different engines.