Editorials/Opinions Analysis For UPSC 15 February 2025
Content: The Teesta dam and the long shadow of climate change Dealing with China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains Peace imperatives The Teesta dam and the long shadow of climate change Background: Teesta-3 Dam and GLOF Impact Event: On October 4, 2023, a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from the South Lhonak lake destroyed the Teesta-3 hydroelectric dam in Sikkim. Damage: Over 100 people died; 80,000 affected across four districts. The dam’s debris acted as a battering ram, intensifying downstream destruction. Triggered landslides 30-40 km downstream. Cause: Moraine slope failure led to rockfall into the lake, causing a strong wave that breached the outlet, releasing ~50 billion liters of water. Relevance : GS (Disaster Management , Climate Change) Practice Question : The Teesta-3 dam’s destruction in 2023 highlights the challenges of climate change-induced disasters. Critically examine the risks associated with rebuilding the dam and suggest alternative approaches to managing hydropower projects in ecologically fragile regions. (250 words) Climate Change as a Risk Multiplier Glacial Melt Acceleration: Rising temperatures & black carbon (soot) deposition accelerate glacier melting. Smaller glaciers melt faster due to inverse volume-melting rate relationship. Increasing Glacial Lakes & Flood Risks: 2011-2024: Number of Himalayan glacial lakes increased by 10.8%. Their combined surface area expanded by 33.7%. South Lhonak lake itself expanded from 167 hectares (2023) due to glacial retreat. Geological Instability: Glacial retreat weakens natural formations → increases landslide risks. New transient landscape features emerge → difficult to predict flood dynamics. Concerns Over Rebuilding Teesta-3 Dam Expert Panel’s Justification: Commercial viability & largely intact equipment post-GLOF. New design includes: Concrete-only construction (previously concrete + rocks). Larger spillway (3x capacity). Early-warning system. Based on worst-case scenario rainfall modeling (IMD projection for next 100 years). Key Issues: Rainfall-Centric Model Insufficient: Experts doubt 2023 GLOF was caused by heavy rain (local stations recorded moderate rainfall). Existing GLOF models fail to capture: Sediment transport & erosion. Riverbank collapses & landslides. Bed elevation changes altering water levels. Climate Change = UnpredictabilityA stronger or different flood type could make Teesta-3 2.0 even more destructive.Unpredictable landslides + sediment deposition → new flood pathways. Social & Economic Costs Ignored:Loss of life, property, and livelihood far outweigh commercial benefits.Local populations need improved social security & disaster preparedness. Broader Perspective: Sustainable Disaster Management Lessons from Global Disaster Research: Engineering solutions have limitations in the face of climate risks. Professor Brian Stone Jr.: “We cannot engineer our way out of climate change; retreat is inevitable.” The cost of climate adaptation must be internalized (e.g., hydroelectric tariffs covering risk mitigation). Alternative Framework for Decision-Making: Risk determination matrix: Identify ‘unacceptable risk’ thresholds. Prioritize human safety over commercial gains. Integrated environmental and economic costing to assess project feasibility. Dealing with China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains Understanding the Issue China has imposed travel restrictions on its citizens working in Foxconn’s India facilities and recalled existing engineers and technicians. It has also restricted exports of specialized manufacturing equipment, which is critical for India’s electronics sector. The move impacts Apple-Foxconn’s operations in India and hinders India’s goal of becoming a global manufacturing hub. Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(SupplyChain) Practice Question: China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains poses a significant challenge to India’s manufacturing ambitions. Analyze the issue and suggest measures to mitigate its impact. (250 words) Strategic Intent Behind China’s Actions Supply Chain Domination: China holds a strategic position in the global electronics supply chain, particularly in advanced machinery and trained workforce. Knowledge Retention: By curbing the presence of Chinese technicians in India, China prevents tacit knowledge transfer. Geopolitical Leverage: The disruption puts China in a stronger negotiating position against India. Reminder to Global Corporations: It signals that China remains indispensable in the electronics manufacturing ecosystem. India’s Growing Electronics Sector & China’s Countermoves India has been a key player in the China Plus One strategy, attracting companies looking to diversify beyond China. The Indian government has actively promoted Apple-Foxconn investments, leading to local iPhone assembly in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Apple’s contract manufacturers in India assembled $14 billion worth of iPhones (FY 2024), with further expansion planned. The Indian government awarded Foxconn Chairman Young Liu the Padma Bhushan, showing the strategic importance of Apple-Foxconn ties. The Role of ‘Make in India’ and PLI Scheme Electronics manufacturing is a core pillar of Make in India. The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, launched in 2020, has received increasing government support: ₹8,885 crore ($1.02 billion) allocated in the 2025 Union Budget. ₹6,600 crore ($0.76 billion) already disbursed to Apple’s contract manufacturers. The 2025 Budget also removed import duties on mobile phone components, showing India’s commitment to electronics self-sufficiency. Economic Dependence and Geopolitical Tensions India remains dependent on China for components and high-tech machinery, despite military tensions and trade disputes. The timing of China’s actions, soon after the October 2024 India-China patrolling agreement in Ladakh, suggests economic leverage remains key in their bilateral relations. Steps India Must Take for Future-Proofing Negotiation & Diplomatic Strategy: India should involve Apple and Foxconn to pressurize China to relax restrictions. Engage with international forums to highlight supply chain coercion. Building Indigenous Capabilities: Expand local production of specialized components (e.g., semiconductor chips, precision machinery). Strengthen ancillary industries to reduce reliance on imports. Human Resource & Skill Development: Develop specialized training programs to replace lost expertise from Chinese technicians. Encourage knowledge transfer within India’s industrial ecosystem. Encouraging Private Investment & R&D: Increase financial incentives for Indian contract manufacturers to develop domestic capabilities. Support technology clusters for knowledge-sharing and innovation. Conclusion India’s rapid expansion in electronics manufacturing has put it at odds with China, leading to supply chain disruptions. While short-term solutions may involve negotiations, long-term self-reliance in technology, skilled labor, and manufacturing infrastructure is crucial. New Delhi must accelerate its future-proofing efforts to counter economic coercion and solidify its role as a global manufacturing hub. Peace Imperatives Context : Persistent ethnic strife since May 2023 had led to a law-and-order crisis, with the Union Home Ministry already in control. The imposition of President’s Rule provides an opportunity to stabilize governance and address key challenges. Relevance:GS 2 (Governance, Indian Polity) Practice Question :Critically analyze the impact of President’s Rule in Manipur on conflict resolution and governance. What measures should the Union government take to ensure long-term peace in the region? (250 words) Challenges Under President’s Rule a) Law and Order Breakdown Despite central forces’ deployment, violence continues between Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. Armed civilian groups, known as “village volunteers,” have escalated conflict by looting arms from police stations. Insurgents from both within Manipur and Myanmar’s civil war have exacerbated the situation. b) Humanitarian Crisis Over 60,000 people remain displaced, suffering from trauma, loss of livelihood, and inadequate relief measures. Restoration of housing, infrastructure, and economic stability is critical. Long-term reconciliation is needed to prevent further ethnic divisions. c) Political and Administrative Paralysis The Manipur legislature failed to function due to deep ethnic divisions. Biases within the previous government fueled distrust, particularly regarding the stigmatization of the Kuki-Zo community. President’s Rule allows for a neutral administration to rebuild trust and facilitate negotiations. Opportunities Under President’s Rule a) Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation The central government can initiate direct talks between Meitei and Kuki-Zo representatives who seek peace. Political parties and civil society groups must be engaged to create a sustainable peace framework. b) Disarmament and Demilitarization A coordinated effort between security forces, intelligence agencies, and local leaders is needed to retrieve looted arms. Incentives for voluntary surrender of weapons can be coupled with strict enforcement measures. Insurgency containment strategies must address external influences, including Myanmar-based militant activities. c) Restoring Civil Administration Bureaucratic neutrality under central rule can help address governance gaps. Immediate rehabilitation of displaced persons through housing, economic aid, and trauma counseling is essential. Restoring local governance mechanisms at the village and district levels can ensure lasting stability. d) Creating Preconditions for Elections Free and fair elections require a violence-free environment and restoration of democratic trust. Political actors from both communities should be given space for dialogue before electoral processes resume. Reforms in law enforcement and judiciary can ensure accountability for past violence and prevent future outbreaks. The Way Forward Short-Term: Focus on security measures, humanitarian aid, and confidence-building among communities. Medium-Term: Institutionalize conflict resolution mechanisms and strengthen civil administration. Long-Term: Establish electoral processes and ensure inclusive governance to prevent further ethnic polarization.